[AgainstAllOdds]

Generally speaking, if you were to beat a closing line by X amount, would you automatically have and X amount of edge?

Example: Beat closing line on any play by 10 cents and have a 55% edge on it.

[thejrichshow85]

blah blah blah blah.

hope this helped.

[donjuan]

If you were assuming efficient market, you would need to find the no-vig closing line and compare that to the price you got. Then you could easily find your edge from there. In other words, say you get +110 and the market closes at -105/-105 on Pinny. That's a 5% edge if your assumption of an efficient market is correct. While it's not automatic that your bet has an edge, it's a fairly reasonable assumption that it does.

[rory borealis]

If you were assuming efficient market, you would need to find the "no-vig closing line" and compare that to the price you got. Then you could easily find your edge from there. In other words, say you get +110 and the market closes at -105/-105 on Pinny. That's a 5% edge if your assumption of an efficient market is correct. While it's not automatic that your bet has an edge, it's a fairly reasonable assumption that it does.

Since MATCHBOOK & WSEX have the narrowest lines...you could use them as an indice of the "no-vig closing line" thst SBR MVP, donjuan talked about.

As a matter of fact, if the betting pool is large enough at those two exchanges.... they serve as a the most accurate "power rating system" available for those of you who do indeed use "power ratings" to make your picks....once you FACTOR OUT the "home field advantage"

To accomplish FACTORING OUT the home filed advantage...

Buy a copy of THE GOLD SHEET or POINTWISE once or twice a season and look at what they assign to "home field advantage" for the various NFL/NCAA teams

[smitch124]

If you were assuming efficient market, you would need to find the no-vig closing line and compare that to the price you got. Then you could easily find your edge from there. In other words, say you get +110 and the market closes at -105/-105 on Pinny. That's a 5% edge if your assumption of an efficient market is correct. While it's not automatic that your bet has an edge, it's a fairly reasonable assumption that it does.

I'm not understnding why the edge would be 5% and not 10% in this instance...

[rory borealis]

I'm not understnding why the edge would be 5% and not 10% in this instance...

Just doing some quick math...which quite possibly could be innaccurate....

SBR Sports Forum Moderator, Justin7 stated in one of his Sports Handicapping training videos that -110 would be a disadvantage of -4.5% from a no-vig closing line of +/-100.

Maybe then +110 would be a +4.50% edge from +/-100.... so from -105/-105 we would add another +2.25% to get 6.75%

This IS NOT the "money-in/money-out" math method used by Justin7 but hopefully this bastardization doesn't produce a result that deviates TOO MUCH from the correct mathematical technique(properly applied)

[smitch124]

Just doing some quick math...which quite possibly could be innaccurate....

SBR Sports Forum Moderator, Justin7 stated in one of his Sports Handicapping training videos that -110 would be a disadvantage of -4.5% from a no-vig closing line of +/-100.

Maybe then +110 would be a +4.50% edge from +/-100.... so from -105/-105 we would add another +2.25% to get 6.75%

This IS NOT the "money-in/money-out" math method used by Justin7 but hopefully this bastardization doesn't produce a result that deviates TOO MUCH from the correct mathematical technique(properly applied)

I did see now after reviewing Justin's calculating your edge video, that a 10 cent advantage near even money would be considered a 5% edge. I'm not sure why this is the case, nor how this ratio changes as you leave even money to the +-200 and +- 300 range. Is there a specific formula for calculating your edge from given a certain "cent" advantage at certain given odds?

[Ganchrow]

Is there a specific formula for calculating your edge from given a certain "cent" advantage at certain given odds?

See http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...ical-hold.html.

[smitch124]

I was looking for an article that might answer my question, was still going through search results....Thanks a ton Ganchrow, got it now!