[Love The Action]

Has anyone tracked the winning percentage for the initial line move after it opens? I have always wondered this, but, for a number of reasons, have never had time to accurately track over a large sample size. With people buying one side, just to get a better line the other side, I never really thought there would be an advantage.

I'm a big NBA/NFL/NCAAF/NHL totals player (except for MLB/NCAAB where I prefer sides), so any knowledge about winning percentage for initial moves on opening totals would be especially appreciated. However, I am just looking to get everyone's thoughts and spur a discussion about opening line moves as a predictor for overall success. Thanks.

[Yi]

It depends on the situation but for particular spreads it is extremely profitable.

[quant]

I am definitely interested in this idea. subscribed!

[ferndog]

I remember a couple of years ago i tracked the first move in college fb using the sbrodds. I would look at pinny, the greek, bookmaker, matchbook and 5dimes. So i could see by the time stamp which book had the first move. And the greek came out on top with a solid winning record ats. This did not include totals. I can't really say that it worked in other sports. You can backtrack it using sbr odds.

[CanuckG]

50/50

[suicidekings]

This is far too simple a question to cover a complex issue. You could look two lines, each moving one point off the opener that might look identical on the surface, but one might have been sharp to start and been moved by someone with a strong opinion and deep pockets, while the other one might have been softer and moved because a lot of small bettors saw value on one side.

Without context, tracking these numbers is a waste of time, and the amount of data you would need to collect to classify them into subcategories either would be too time consuming or is not available. Waste of time...

[CanuckG]

Like I said 50/50

[Thremp]

If anyone thinks these are 50/50, I will escrow any reasonable sum for reasonable limits to be bet into stale openers.

If you do not accept, I can only assume that you're a poseur and a liar.

[LT Profits]

If you base the record on the opening number, then it would LOOK profitable, expect that if you are waiting for an opener to move, you never got that number. And if you have access to stale openers you won't have that access for long before being shown the door.

[CanuckG]

If anyone thinks these are 50/50, I will escrow any reasonable sum for reasonable limits to be bet into stale openers.

If you do not accept, I can only assume that you're a poseur and a liar.

Alright sir what do you think it is then? Also would like to see proof for your claims.

[Peregrine Stoop]

I would also like to bet against stale openers. Are you booking these CanuckG?

[JustinBieber]

So first in the queue is thremp and then peregrine. I guess im 3rd in line to bet your stale openers.

[Tackleberry]

So first in the queue is thremp and then peregrine. I guess im 3rd in line to bet your stale openers.

Going to be a long list

[goucla]

just go with big lines movements about 3-5 hrs before game time, i bet that has a high winning %

[LT Profits]

just go with big lines movements about 3-5 hrs before game time, i bet that has a high winning %

If you grade those plays on the opening numbers, yes you would have a high winning % but the result would be meaningless because you didn't get the opening number.

If you grade on the actual number you got 3-5 hrs before game time, as you should, the result would be closer to 50%.

[bztips]

LT is exactly on point here. It's great that (almost) everyone thinks they can make $$ betting against stale openers. The problem is accurately identifying and betting them in real time - not easy to do.

[suicidekings]

Like I said 50/50

No... What I'm saying is not all lines are created equal. Your blanket statement is akin to not seeing the value in two games on a ten game card because half the teams playing are going to lose...

[mmortal03]

I've been lurking the forum for a couple months, and had to finally join and post a reply to this one. I've been looking at NBA opening and closing lines from a particular book from 2005 to the present. I've found that at least on this particular book that I'm looking at, if you had simply bet the away team on the closing line for every time the final line movement went exactly 1 point towards the home team, your winning percentage would have been right at 52.48%, disregarding any pushes. That's only good enough to break even.

Every other simple bet against the line movement that I looked at, in increments of plus or minus 0.5 points all did worse than that.

So, basically, like others have said here, you can't use the line movement just by itself against the closing line and expect to win anything. Now, that being said, combining this kind of line movement information with other factors in your system that independently have positive EV could quite likely help you get your winning percentage up. But by itself, it's just not good enough, if you're trying to design a system to beat the closing line.

[Vondy]

Reverse Line Movement is profitable over the long run

[Peregrine Stoop]

I've been lurking the forum for a couple months, and had to finally join and post a reply to this one. I've been looking at NBA opening and closing lines from a particular book from 2005 to the present. I've found that at least on this particular book that I'm looking at, if you had simply bet the away team on the closing line for every time the final line movement went exactly 1 point towards the home team, your winning percentage would have been right at 52.48%, disregarding any pushes. That's only good enough to break even. Every other simple bet against the line movement that I looked at, in increments of plus or minus 0.5 points all did worse than that. So, basically, like others have said here, you can't use the line movement just by itself against the closing line and expect to win anything. Now, that being said, combining this kind of line movement information with other factors in your system that independently have positive EV could quite likely help you get your winning percentage up. But by itself, it's just not good enough, if you're trying to design a system to beat the closing line.

just a minor note that if you were data-mining and tested about 100 of these different types of subsets, you'd be highly likely to find 1 that won at the percentage above from pure random chance even though the underlying expectation was 50% for every subset.

[That Foreign Guy]

Maybe I'm a lame no handicapping market efficiency kind of guy but unless I have evidence to the contrary I believe the current line is usually -EV by about the amount of the vig so betting lines after they move isn't likely to be profitable.

Some exceptions on smaller markets and also in exchanges where WOM suggests a continued move but that's usually only good for a couple ticks.

[agendaman]

as in playing overlays/underlays when betting horses you are relying on what other peole think/well favs. win about 3/10 there which means the public is wrong 7/10 /not good however if you could somehow be very selective w/your picks it might work/just this stephon curry/warriors banged up doubtful for sun./chargers are 24-2 in dec. since 2006/will beat lions also giants beat jets and eagles beat cowboys/finally homefield adv. is everything so 49rs over seattle/gb big over bears/gl