[EmpireMaker]

The Padres were without a key bullpen piece for all of last season. Left-hander Drew Pomeranz missed the whole year after suffering a setback in his recovery from August 2021 surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in his forearm.
With camp opening this week, San Diego skipper Bob Melvin provided reporters (including AJ Cassavell of MLB.com) with an update on the veteran reliever’s status. While the club plans to take things cautiously early in exhibition play, they’re anticipating a fairly normal build-up to the regular season. “I wouldn’t say (Pomeranz) is on a program where he’s completely a ’go’ like everybody else,” Melvin said. “That could happen at some point in time early in camp. There’s still probably some restrictions on him. But once we get to games, hopefully he’s in a place where he’s just trying to get ready for a season.”
If all goes as expected, the 34-year-old will be in the Opening Day bullpen. A healthy Pomeranz would have a chance at carving out a key late-game role. Prior to his season-ending injury in 2021, he’d posted a 1.75 ERA with a 29.4% strikeout percentage through 25 2/3 innings. That came on the heels of an even more dominant 1.45 ERA, 39.7% strikeout rate over 18 1/3 frames during the shortened 2020 season. All told, Pomeranz has a 1.62 ERA while punching out a little more than a third of his opponents in 47 appearances during this stint as a Padre.
Signed to a surprising four-year deal over the 2019-20 offseason, Pomeranz has more than made good on the organization’s faith on a rate basis but unfortunately been unable to accrue many innings. He’s headed into the final season of that contract and playing this year on a $10MM salary. That makes this a pivotal season for the former All-Star, since he’s slated to return to the open market next winter.
Pomeranz will at least be joined by star closer Josh Hader and ground-ball specialist Tim Hill as left-handers in the bullpen. Adrián Morejón would likely join them if he’s not given a rotation opportunity. San Diego would have to keep Rule 5 selection Jose Lopez on the big league staff if they want to retain his long-term contractual rights, while José Castillo, Tom Cosgrove and Ray Kerr could all find themselves in the mix. There’s ample depth, though Pomeranz may have the highest upside of the bunch aside from Hader. From the right side, Robert Suarez, Luis García and Steven Wilson all look likely to assume important innings in what should be a very strong relief corps.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Pomeranz coming back healthy this year would be a big help to the bullpen...that is a big if though, he can't seem to stay healthy.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Looks like the Padres have agreed to a deal with Michael Wacha(pending a physical)...

He pitched great last season, hopefully he can duplicate that...hoping they did not sign him for multiple seasons and a lot of money but after last season who knows.

He has either been better than average or below average in his career, so i don't think you can count on him too much but not bad as a #5 or 6 starter i guess.

[JMobile]

Wow, a healthy Pomeranz and a healthy Wacha? Padres look like an elite pitching staff

[batt33]

Wow, a healthy Pomeranz and a healthy Wacha? Padres look like an elite pitching staff

hmmmm until the post season.....

[EmpireMaker]

In comments to reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Post-Tribune), manager Bob Melvin confirmed his plans for the Padres’ outfield in 2023. After spending all of 2021 and 2022 in right field, superstar Juan Soto will be shifting back to left field, where he spent most of the 2018-20 seasons, for the upcoming campaign. Soto graded out well as a defender in right over the course of the 2021 season, but defensive metrics soured on his glovework in 2022, when he rated as the second-worst defender in all of baseball by Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric with an OAA of -16.
Elsewhere in the outfield, Fernando Tatis Jr. figures to be a regular starter once he has finished serving his suspension for PED usage. Tatis, of course, had primarily played shortstop to this point in his career, but Xander Bogaerts now figures to fill that position on the diamond following the Padres signing him to an 11-year deal earlier this offseason. With Tatis now displaced, he appears poised to get regular starts in right field once he’s eligible to return in late April.
While right field figures to be where Tatis finds most of his playing time, Acee notes the star slugger has his eye on another position: center field. While Tatis is certainly athletic enough to handle center field, having already logged 56 innings at the position in his career, it seems unlikely that he would displace incumbent center fielder Trent Grisham, who won a Gold Glove for his work up the middle in 2022. That being said, Grisham struggled at the plate in 2022, slashing a meager .184/.284/.341 (83 wRC+) in 524 plate appearances.
Given Grisham’s offensive struggles, it stands to reason that Tatis could still slide over to center on occasion, opening up right field for a player like Matt Carpenter, Jose Azocar, or Brandon Dixon. This would make particular sense against left-handed pitchers, over whom either Azocar or Dixon would hold a platoon advantage in contrast to Grisham’s same-handed bat.
For his part, Melvin was non-committal as to where Tatis will play once he can return from his suspension, noting the club has to get through not only Spring Training, but the first 20 games of the regular season before Tatis can play anywhere. That being said, he did admit he could see Tatis moving around the field to play multiple positions as necessary, leaving open the possibility Tatis could get some starts in center over the course of the 2023 season.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

In comments to reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Post-Tribune), manager Bob Melvin confirmed his plans for the Padres’ outfield in 2023. After spending all of 2021 and 2022 in right field, superstar Juan Soto will be shifting back to left field, where he spent most of the 2018-20 seasons, for the upcoming campaign. Soto graded out well as a defender in right over the course of the 2021 season, but defensive metrics soured on his glovework in 2022, when he rated as the second-worst defender in all of baseball by Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric with an OAA of -16.
Elsewhere in the outfield, Fernando Tatis Jr. figures to be a regular starter once he has finished serving his suspension for PED usage. Tatis, of course, had primarily played shortstop to this point in his career, but Xander Bogaerts now figures to fill that position on the diamond following the Padres signing him to an 11-year deal earlier this offseason. With Tatis now displaced, he appears poised to get regular starts in right field once he’s eligible to return in late April.
While right field figures to be where Tatis finds most of his playing time, Acee notes the star slugger has his eye on another position: center field. While Tatis is certainly athletic enough to handle center field, having already logged 56 innings at the position in his career, it seems unlikely that he would displace incumbent center fielder Trent Grisham, who won a Gold Glove for his work up the middle in 2022. That being said, Grisham struggled at the plate in 2022, slashing a meager .184/.284/.341 (83 wRC+) in 524 plate appearances.
Given Grisham’s offensive struggles, it stands to reason that Tatis could still slide over to center on occasion, opening up right field for a player like Matt Carpenter, Jose Azocar, or Brandon Dixon. This would make particular sense against left-handed pitchers, over whom either Azocar or Dixon would hold a platoon advantage in contrast to Grisham’s same-handed bat.
For his part, Melvin was non-committal as to where Tatis will play once he can return from his suspension, noting the club has to get through not only Spring Training, but the first 20 games of the regular season before Tatis can play anywhere. That being said, he did admit he could see Tatis moving around the field to play multiple positions as necessary, leaving open the possibility Tatis could get some starts in center over the course of the 2023 season.

Tatis seems to be on a mission for redemption...sounds great and all but let your play do the talking.

[EmpireMaker]

Mariners outfielder Taylor Trammell will have surgery on his right hand to repair a broken hamate bone, reports Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times. Trammell will be out of action for seven or more weeks, per Corey Brock of The Athletic. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto tells Divish that Trammell was struck on the hand during a workout.
Trammell, 25, was once one of the most highly-touted prospects in baseball but has yet to deliver on his promise in the big leagues thus far. Originally drafted by the Reds, he has twice switched organizations in significant trades. He went to the Padres in the 2019 deal that sent Trevor Bauer to the Reds and Yasiel Puig to Cleveland, then went to the Mariners in the 2020 trade that also sent Ty France and Andrés Muñoz to Seattle.
Trammell was able to make his MLB debut in 2021 but wasn’t able to hit the ground running, striking out in 42.1% of his plate appearances. Last year, he dealt with a hamstring strain for much of the time, only getting into 43 major league contests and 22 more in Triple-A. There were some signs of optimism, as his 28.2% strikeout rate was still above average but a noticeable improvement from the year prior. He also walked in a strong 11.1% of his trips to the plate. In those Triple-A games, he only struck out 17.3% of the time and hit .333/.408/.575 for a wRC+ of 144.
The outfield in Seattle figures to be different this year compared to last. Jesse Winker was traded to the Brewers, Mitch Haniger departed via free agency and Teoscar Hernández was acquired in a trade with the Blue Jays. Hernandez and Julio Rodríguez figure to be in right and center field, respectively, but left field was open for someone like Trammell. AJ Pollock was brought signed to be the short side of a platoon but Trammell and Jarred Kelenic, who both hit left-handed, were going to be competing to be on the strong side.
Opening Day is now about six weeks away, so Trammell now seems destined to miss at least some of the regular season. That opens the possibility that Kelenic gets another stretch of time in the club’s lineup, though he has faced similar struggles. Despite hitting .302/.372/.574 in 537 Triple-A plate appearances for a wRC+ of 128, his major league batting line is .168/.251/.338 for a wRC+ of 68 in 558 trips to the plate.
Should Kelenic continue to struggle against major league pitching, it seems he’ll face another competitor in Cade Marlowe. Dipoto tells Daniel Kramer of MLB.com that Marlowe could now figure more prominently in the competition. The young outfielder, 26 in June, had a solid year at the plate last year in the minors, hitting .287/.377/.487. That amounted to a 120 wRC+ and he added 42 stolen bases to boot. Most of that came at Double-A with a 13-game stint at Triple-A to finish the season. He was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to protect him from selection in the Rule 5 draft.
Though it’s possible Trammell doesn’t miss much of the regular season, it’s surely a frustrating start to his 2023 on a personal level after he missed so much time last year. For the club, their outfield competition has lost one option, but they will hope that one of Kelenic or Marlowe can step up.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Tampa Bay has a very deep pitching staff and bullpen this year...embarrassment of riches.

[Cross]

Tampa always has the pitching.

[batt33]

It will be interesting to see how pitchers and batters adjust to the pitch/batters clock this year... looking forward to the early spring training games!

[JAKEPEAVY21]

It will be interesting to see how pitchers and batters adjust to the pitch/batters clock this year... looking forward to the early spring training games!

I honestly think they're going to be pretty lax about it but we shall see...

[EmpireMaker]

I am going to go on the record right now and say IMO this is a terrible move by the Padres.

The Padres finalized their agreement with starter Michael Wacha this morning. That pact contained options from both the team and player perspective designed to meet the right-hander’s asking price while keeping the deal’s average annual value down for luxury tax purposes. It’s officially a four-year, $26MM guarantee, leading to a $6.5MM CBT hit.
That contract structure brings the Padres’ estimated luxury tax number around $272.2MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s about $800K shy of the $273MM mark that delineates the third threshold of tax penalization. Public payroll figures are estimates, though Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic confirm with team officials the club remains narrowly below the $273MM figure. That’s no coincidence, of course, with the Padres’ front office intentionally structuring some recent contracts to add to the roster while staying under that threshold.
At the start of the offseason, the Friars signed Nick Martinez to a deal that was similarly built with dual club/player options and technically came out to an approximate $8.667MM average annual value. More recently, San Diego’s extension negotiations with Yu Darvish were shaped by the team’s CBT situation. The Friars signed the All-Star righty to a five-year, $90MM extension covering the 2024-28 seasons last week. That paired with Darvish’s preexisting $18MM salary for the upcoming season to result in a matching tax hit. Before the extension, Darvish had counted for $21MM against the luxury tax (reflecting the AAV of his prior front-loaded six-year, $126MM agreement with the Cubs). The extension trimmed $3MM off the team’s tax bill this year, which freed up breathing room under the $273MM mark for the Wacha money.
In the process, San Diego made a commitment to Darvish running through his age-41 season. Investing for that long in a pitcher of his age certainly isn’t without risk, though it’s one the Friars preferred to a shorter-term deal that could’ve come with higher annual salaries. Lin and Rosenthal report that Darvish’s camp initially broached extension talks seeking a two-year, $60MM deal. Instead, the Padres made a longer commitment that guarantees the veteran hurler an extra $30MM altogether but comes at a much lower annual value.
According to the Athletic, San Diego also pursued a multi-year guarantee with player options for Johnny Cueto before he signed with the Marlins last month. San Diego was known to be involved in the Cueto market. Rather than accept a deal similar to the ones Martinez and Wacha ended up taking, Cueto took a one-year, $8.5MM pact with a 2024 club option from the Marlins.
Ultimately, the Padres’ maneuverings allow them to open Spring Training a hair south of the third tax threshold. A team’s luxury tax number is calculated at the end of the season, not during exhibition play or on Opening Day. Depending on how much room exists below $273MM, the Friars could certainly wind up above that number — either by making a midseason acquisition via trade or waivers or simply by selecting the contract of a non-roster Spring Training invitee whose deal contains a base salary above the league minimum (i.e. Pedro Severino).
For the time being, however, the organization has an obvious desire to keep south of the $273MM figure. Finishing a season above the third tax threshold results in a team’s top draft choice for the following year (2024, in this instance) being moved back ten spots. It also subjects a team to higher payments. The Friars are set to pay a 50% tax on any spending between $233MM and $253MM and a 62% fee on spending between $253MM and $273MM. They’d be taxed at a 90% rate on spending from $273MM to $293MM. The latter penalties are ones they’re clearly looking to avoid right now.
San Diego heads into the season as one of the favorites in the National League. Perhaps they’ll eventually go beyond the third threshold to maximize this roster’s chances of contending. As of now, they project for the third-highest CBT payroll in the majors. The Mets are running away from the rest of the league in spending, while the Yankees are reportedly just under the final tax threshold at $293MM and reluctant to surpass that figure.

[jrgum3]

Tatis seems to be on a mission for redemption...sounds great and all but let your play do the talking.

Yeah I'm sure he's chomping at the bit to get back on the field and do his thing. He needs to stay healthy and out of trouble but I think he's going to have a great year because he is just too talented not to produce at a high level.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Padres signed Cole Hamels to a minor league contract.

I think he is done but low risk signing.

[batt33]

I honestly think they're going to be pretty lax about it but we shall see...

Could you imagine Nomar Garciaparra having to be in the batters box within 8 seconds with him constantly adjusting everything he's wearing 

[EmpireMaker]

The Phillies and representatives for ace Aaron Nola have discussed a possible contract extension this spring, reports Matt Gelb of the Athletic. The numbers under consideration are unclear. Gelb adds the sides have exchanged formal proposals and suggests there’s optimism about the chances of getting a deal done at some point.
As things stand, the former seventh overall pick is on track to be one of the top free agents on next winter’s market. Rival clubs would surely love an opportunity to make a run at the All-Star. Nola expressed a desire to work something out with Philadelphia instead, though he noted he’s leaving most of the details to his agents at Paragon Sports International.
“My reps are handling it. I don’t really know, honestly,” Nola said about the status of talks (via Gelb). “I love it here. I think everybody loves it here.” Nola suggested his camp would table discussions until season’s end if no deal were in place by Opening Day. “I want to focus on the season, definitely. We’d have to reopen it after the season, for sure. But during the season, I want to stay focused on that: playing good ball, trying to win a championship.”
Nola is coming off another excellent year, one that landed him a fourth place finish in NL Cy Young balloting. It was the third top ten placement of his career and a fairly typical showing by his standards. Nola made all 32 starts and threw 205 innings. He posted a 3.25 ERA with an excellent 29.1% strikeout percentage and a 3.6% walk rate that was among the league’s lowest. That marked the third consecutive season in which he fanned upwards of 29% of batters faced while generating swinging strikes on at least 12% of his pitches.
In addition to his excellent rate performance, Nola has arguably been the sport’s predominant workhorse over the past few seasons. He’s respectively made 33, 34, 32 and 32 starts in each of the last four 162-game seasons and took the ball all 12 times during the shortened schedule. Since the start of 2018, Nola leads the majors with both 143 starts and 871 2/3 innings. He’s one of just five hurlers to surpass the 800-inning mark in that time. Aside from a brief stay on the COVID-19 list, he hasn’t missed any time since a 2016 elbow strain.
Nola and Julio Urías join two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani as the top starting pitchers on track for free agency. If he did hit the open market, it’d be the first trip of his career. Nola has spent his entire career with Philadelphia, signing a $45MM extension over the 2019-20 offseason. That deal came with a $16MM club option for the 2023 campaign, one the Phils made the obvious decision to exercise last fall.
There’s no question Nola is in line for a much more significant payday this time around — either via another extension or free agent deal. He turns 30 in June, so he’s still in position for a long-term pact despite his first extension pushing back his initial path to free agency by two years. Nola’s combination of performance track record, age and durability could make him one of the top free agent pitchers of the last couple seasons.
Jacob deGrom landed the highest guarantee of any free pitcher the past few years, securing $185MM over five seasons from the Rangers. deGrom is the best pitcher in the sport on a rate basis but headed into his age-35 campaign with 2021-22 injury issues. The more apt comparison point for Nola is Carlos Rodón, who secured six years and $162MM from the Yankees this winter.
Rodón is a few months younger now than Nola will be next offseason but the age gap is fairly minor. The Yankee southpaw has been more overpowering over the past two seasons, striking out almost 34% of opponents with a 2.67 ERA. Rodón throws harder and is arguably the more dominant pitcher on a per-inning basis while Nola has a significant edge from a durability perspective. Nola has topped 200 innings in his career on three separate occasions. Rodón, who missed extended chunks of action from 2018-20 thanks to elbow and shoulder surgeries, has never topped the 178 frames he threw last year.
There’s an argument for Nola’s camp to beat the Rodón deal, perhaps by a decent margin. The Phillies righty compares reasonably well to Stephen Strasburg over the three seasons prior to his seven-year, $245MM megadeal with the Nationals from the 2019-20 offseason. Over the last three seasons, Nola has thrown 457 innings with a 3.80 ERA, 30% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk percentage. In the three years leading up to his contract, Strasburg had tossed 514 1/3 innings (an edge attributable to the shortened 2020 schedule) of 3.15 ERA ball with a 29.3% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk percentage.
Strasburg secured his contract — the second-largest pitcher deal in MLB history — on the heels of a stellar playoff run culminating in a championship and World Series MVP award. Nola doesn’t have that kind of momentum leading up to extension discussions, and it’s hard to envision the Phillies matching the Strasburg deal while Nola is a year away from the open market. Still, it serves as an example of the kind of heights a pitcher of his caliber can reach in free agency if he hits the market coming off a peak platform season.
The Phillies haven’t been averse to long-term commitments. Bryce Harper and Trea Turner each reached or topped the $300MM mark. The Phils went into nine figures to land Zack Wheeler and Nick Castellanos and to retain J.T. Realmuto. Wheeler will make $23.5MM in 2024, the final season of his five-year contract. Taijuan Walker is locked into the rotation for the next four years on this winter’s $72MM deal. Ranger Suárez is controllable via arbitration through 2025, while top prospects Andrew Painter and Mick Abel are viewed as long-term rotation building blocks.
There’s a fair bit of talent on the starting staff. That seems unlikely to deter the Phils from making a serious run at retaining Nola, however, considering how impactful he’s been over the past half-decade. Whether they can reach an agreement within the next six weeks is going to be a key storyline in camp.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Could you imagine Nomar Garciaparra having to be in the batters box within 8 seconds with him constantly adjusting everything he's wearing 

Yeah i remember that routine he had before every pitch.

I also remember that they used to call Mike Hargrove(ex Indians skipper) "The Human Rain Delay" back in his playing days.

[batt33]

Yeah i remember that routine he had before every pitch.

I also remember that they used to call Mike Hargrove(ex Indians skipper) "The Human Rain Delay" back in his playing days.

oh yeah.... that is so true! found this





Time between pitches with no runners on base ranges from 12.6 seconds for Milwaukee's Brent Suter and San Francisco's Sam Long to 26.6 for St. Louis' Giovanny Gallegos and 26.0 for Atlanta's Kenley Jansen. With runners on, San Diego's Tim Hill leads at 18.1 and Gallegos (32.1) and Jansen (31.1) are the slowest








Time between pitches with no runners on base ranges from 12.6 seconds for Milwaukee's Brent Suter and San Francisco's Sam Long to 26.6 for St. Louis' Giovanny Gallegos and 26.0 for Atlanta's Kenley Jansen. With runners on, San Diego's Tim Hill leads at 18.1 and Gallegos (32.1) and Jansen (31.1) are the slowest.

[EmpireMaker]

German Marquez suffered a left hamstring injury during conditioning drills, though Rockies manager Bud Black told The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other reporters that Marquez was able to do some light running on Friday and play catch. The injury seems minor enough that Marquez expressed hope that he could still pitch for his native Venezuela during the second round of the World Baseball Classic, though Marquez will be sidelined for the first round of WBC play.
The right-hander is looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2022 campaign that saw him post a 4.95 ERA over 181 2/3 innings and some of the worst hard-contact numbers of any pitcher in baseball. Any kind of delay in his spring work won’t help in Marquez’s rebound efforts, and a pitching-thin team like Colorado certainly can’t afford seeing its ace miss any time. However, the injury may have taken place early enough that Marquez’s Opening Day status may not be in question — as Black put it, “we’re fortunate in a lot of ways, and German realizes this, that it’s the middle of February and not the middle of March.”
More on other injury situations around the sport…

• Both Michael Kopech and White Sox manager Pedro Grifol think the right-hander is going to be ready for Opening Day, as they updated reporters (including the Associated Press) about Kopech’s status following an injury-marred end to his season. Kopech spent time on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation and a left knee strain, and his season came to an early end when he underwent surgery to fix a tear in his right meniscus. After an offseason of rehab work, Kopech is now “at a point where the knee’s feeling better, the shoulder’s feeling better. But it’s just kind of smoothing things out and getting back to 100 percent.” With Kopech tossing only 119 1/3 innings in 2022, his first full season as a starting pitcher ended up being somewhat limited, though he overcame some very shaky metrics to post a 3.54 ERA.
• Mitch White told MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson that he had a slight shoulder impingement in January that somewhat delayed his usual offseason routine, but the Blue Jays righty is now feeling “great.” White is close to starting to throw side sessions, and that might provide a clearer picture of whether or not White is fully ready as camp opens. Entering his first full season with Toronto, White struggled to a 7.74 ERA over 43 innings with the Blue Jays after being traded from the Dodgers, but White still enters camp in competition for the Jays’ fifth starter role.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

oh yeah.... that is so true! found this





Time between pitches with no runners on base ranges from 12.6 seconds for Milwaukee's Brent Suter and San Francisco's Sam Long to 26.6 for St. Louis' Giovanny Gallegos and 26.0 for Atlanta's Kenley Jansen. With runners on, San Diego's Tim Hill leads at 18.1 and Gallegos (32.1) and Jansen (31.1) are the slowest








Time between pitches with no runners on base ranges from 12.6 seconds for Milwaukee's Brent Suter and San Francisco's Sam Long to 26.6 for St. Louis' Giovanny Gallegos and 26.0 for Atlanta's Kenley Jansen. With runners on, San Diego's Tim Hill leads at 18.1 and Gallegos (32.1) and Jansen (31.1) are the slowest.

Not a surprise about Tim Hill, it is like watching the paint dry with him on the mound.

[batt33]

It will be interesting to see what the batting averages will be this year for those batters that normally face the "infield overshift" like Brandon Belt...

[EmpireMaker]

The White Sox have signed infielder Elvis Andrus to a one-year contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). The contract will become official when Andrus passes a physical, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds that Andrus will earn a $3MM salary. Andrus is represented by the Boras Corporation.
Andrus returns to the south side of Chicago after hitting .271/.309/.464 over 191 plate appearances with the White Sox last season. Released by the A’s in August, the Sox quickly inked Andrus as a shortstop replacement for Tim Anderson, who ended up missing the rest of the season due to a torn hand ligament. While only over a small sample size, Andrus’ performance with the Sox marked his best offensive surge in years, as the veteran had struggled at the plate during the end of his tenure with the Rangers and for much of his two seasons in Oakland.
With Anderson now back and healthy, the White Sox will use Andrus as their regular second baseman. This is the first position change of Andrus’ 14-year MLB career, as he has exclusively played shortstop (with a handful of DH games) over his 1947 Major League games. Andrus has made exactly one professional appearance as a second baseman, and it happened way back in his first pro season of 2005 with the Braves’ rookie ball affiliate.
Lack of experience notwithstanding, there probably isn’t much doubt that Andrus can handle the new position, given that he was still posting quality defensive numbers (as per the UZR/150 and Outs Above Average metrics) as a shortstop as recently as 2022. It is certainly possible that Andrus’ glovework will be even better at an ostensibly easier position, which gives the White Sox a defensive boost heading into a season with new anti-shift rules coming into play.
The signing addresses a problem position for the Sox that has lingered all offseason. Chicago signed Hanser Alberto, Erik Gonzalez, and Nate Mondou to minor league contracts, yet neither represented any real upgrade to a second base position that generated only 0.3 bWAR for the White Sox over the entire 2022 season. With Andrus now in the fold, longtime utilityman Leury Garcia can now used in his usual multi-position role, and more inexperienced options like Romy Gonzalez and Lenyn Sosa can now compete for bench jobs or get more seasoning in the minor leagues.
The $3MM outlay for Andrus bumps Chicago’s payroll to roughly $189.1MM, as per Roster Resource. This is a little less than the approximately $193MM the White Sox spent last season, though GM Rick Hahn indicated back in November that the club was planning to have around the same payroll as it did in 2022. Some reports suggested that the Sox would even try to cut payroll down to around $180MM, though that plan may have been abandoned in light of rising free agent costs and a relative lack of league-wide action on the trade market. If the Sox were in contention at midseason, owner Jerry Reinsdorf could possibly okay another payroll bump for a trade deadline addition, even if it’s probably safe to assume that a real spending splurge isn’t coming.
The Angels and Red Sox were the only teams publicly known to have interest in Andrus this winter, with Boston emerging in the wake of Trevor Story’s internal-brace surgery on his right elbow. There was obviously a lot of action on the shortstop market this offseason, but once the big names of Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, and Dansby Swanson all signed their contracts, remaining teams with shortstop needs seemed more willing to test out internal options rather than pursue a veteran like Andrus. Becoming a second baseman might reflect the reality of the market for Andrus, or he might’ve just preferred an everyday role at a new position (and in a familiar environment) rather than remain a shortstop on a new team, but in more of a part-time capacity.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

It will be interesting to see what the batting averages will be this year for those batters that normally face the "infield overshift" like Brandon Belt...

A lot of the players that were shifted on will have higher averages.

It will be nice to see more ground ball hits getting through the infield...

[batt33]

A lot of the players that were shifted on will have higher averages.

It will be nice to see more ground ball hits getting through the infield...

I wonder how much higher the averages will be?

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I wonder how much higher the averages will be?

No idea but just a guess most guys will get 5-10+ additional hits without the shift?

[EmpireMaker]

Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman is entering his second and potentially final season in Toronto, as he looks set to hit free agency at season’s end. The 29-year-old addressed his long term future with the organization with Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star, saying he’s open to an extension but realistic about his future.
“I know the Blue Jays enjoy having me here and want to continue having me here,” Chapman said. “I know I want to continue to be here and be a part of this team. I’m sure conversations will be had along the way but, when I signed that two-year deal, I was anticipating they would have to pay Bo and Vladdy and all these young guys.”
With Manny Machado seemingly headed for the open market next winter, Chapman figures to be the second best third baseman available. Offensively he’s hit 27 home runs in each of the past two seasons, and has hit at least 24 in the last four 162-game seasons, while his glove has been worth 18 Outs Above Average over the past two seasons and 40 over his career. Another quality season should set Chapman up to do very well in free agency, whether that be for the Blue Jays or elsewhere.
Here’s some more bit and pieces from around the American League as full squad workouts begin:

• The White Sox made their signing of infielder Elvis Andrus official today, confirming the one-year, $3MM deal. General manager Rick Hahn addressed the signing with reporters (including Scott Merkin of MLB.com) in Arizona, confirming the expectation is that Andrus will be Chicago’s everyday second baseman. Leury Garcia, Romy Gonzalez, Yolbert Sanchez, Lenyn Sosa and non-roster invite Hanser Alberto were all the previous candidates to man second, but Andrus will bump some combination of those players into bench/utility roles. With Tim Anderson entrenched at shortstop, this will be the first time Andrus has logged time at another defensive position, as all of his career 16,606 innings in the field have come at short. There seems little doubt about Andrus’ ability to handle second of course, given his track record of quality glove work at the more demanding shortstop position.
• Speaking of free agency, Roch Kubatko of MASN reports that the Orioles are still involved in the free agency market, and have their eyes on a few major league players. Jurickson Profar stands out as comfortably the highest-profile player remaining in a very thin free agent field. Profar does make some sense as an upgrade over Austin Hays in left field, although it’s also not an obvious fit. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic did report back in January that the Orioles were involved in Profar, although they didn’t appear particularly confident of getting a deal done. Outside of Profar, there’s no available free agent who’d drastically alter Baltimore’s payroll for the upcoming season, but it is worth noting here CEO John Angelos’ comments about the team’s payroll moving forward.

[EmpireMaker]

Defensive shifts

The defensive shift rule states that a team must have two fielders stationed completely on either side of second base when a pitch is thrown. A team must also have a minimum of four players with their feet on the outer boundary of the infield dirt.
Visualize the groundout from a left-handed hitter deep into the hole between first and second base. You've seen it a zillion times over the years, whether it was Ryan Howard, Kyle Schwarber or any other lefty who pulls the ball frequently on the ground. This rule change would prevent teams from defending players in that way.
It stands to benefit hitters whether they utilize all fields like Alec Bohm or are prone to pulling the ball when hitting it on the ground like Schwarber or Rhys Hoskins.
It will unquestionably lead to more singles, which have been devalued over the past decade because it has never been harder to hit one. The league-wide batting average this season (.243) is the lowest it’s been since 1967.
The limit on shifting should lead to a more contact-based approach around the league. Players currently selling out for power may change their philosophy with base-hits more attainable. The Jean Seguras or Jeff McNeils of the world should be in higher demand.

[EmpireMaker]

Earlier this winter, we dug into the upcoming positioning ban, attempting to use Statcast data to identify which hitters might benefit the most from the new rules. As we discussed at the time, it’s complicated -- mostly because teams can still position intelligently within the rules, and because we don’t know if or how certain hitters will change their approaches against different defenses, and because hitters might improve or decline naturally -- but given what we know, it’s a good proxy. You can read how the whole thing worked here.


Given our data, Corey Seager seemed to be the hitter who might benefit the most, potentially gaining back 20 hits, though much of that is simply because he makes so much contact that he just hit the most balls into shifted defenses. After doing a deep dive on Seager, we wanted to know more. He’s hardly the only hitter who will see defenses change in 2023, right? So: Who else would be high atop the list?



It's more difficult than you'd think, really. We can't assume hitters will have no approach reaction to the shift ban, and even if they do, batting averages tend to bounce around by a few points just due to luck each year anyway. For example, over 500 at-bats, going from .240 to .260 is all of 10 extra hits ... or less than one per week. All that said, here's what the data suggests, with players ordered by most hits likely lost to the shift, using a process outlined here.










Kyle Schwarber (Phillies LF/DH)
+12 potential hits gained / 91% shift rate


Great, great start. Schwarber is lefty, not terribly fast and he gets shifted on a ton. He’s exactly the kind of hitter who should be at or near the top of a list like this, which gives us confidence we’re finding something real. That he’s behind Seager largely comes down to contact, because while they had nearly the same number of plate appearances, Schwarber struck out 97 more times, making for fewer balls hit to shifted defenses.



Put another way, using the same method we did for Seager -- removing strikeouts, walks, homers, balls hit far too deep for the shift to matter, etc -- only 27% of Schwarber’s plate appearances actually ended with a batted ball that could have been shift-affected, which cuts down his losses to the defense greatly.


Still, because he hits the ball so hard, there are quite a few plays like this one, hit at 109.3 mph but right to a shifted second baseman in short right field -- or almost certainly a hit in 2023.











Or this one, which -- based on how hard he hit it, how high and at what horizontal angle -- is a hit 55% of the time, except when a fielder is standing exactly where César Hernández was, and where he won't be able to stand in 2023. (Well, the second baseman can’t. An outfielder still could be there, if teams want to be adventurous.)

[EmpireMaker]

Carlos Santana (Pirates 1B/DH)
+12 potential hits gained / 98% shift rate (LHB); 28% (RHB)


He'd better be up here, because the Pirates specifically noted this aspect when they signed him. “We believe based on the analysis we've done from his 2022 season," said general manager Ben Cherington, “and then potentially some benefit from the shift rules that there could be even more offense than what he showed this past year." As with Schwarber, this is exactly the kind of player you’d expect here.


For years, Santana was a consistent hitting machine for some good Cleveland lineups, but over the last three years, the wheels have fallen off, as he's posted a .207/.323/.355 line for three teams. Santana turns 37 in April, and while the plate discipline is still there, the maximum exit velos have fallen steadily since 2018, so it’s extremely fair to wonder if he’s being hurt by the shift, or if it’s just that this is what he is now.


It is, to some extent, likely both; you don’t generally regain high-end exit velocity as you age. But, among players with 750 plate appearances over the last three years, he has the lowest batting average on balls in play, which has to be at least a little about the shift -- though adding 11 extra hits would still only bump his average to .227.


Interestingly, our numbers have him as having lost 11 potential hits to the shift as a lefty, and one as a righty. That’s right: while righties are shifted far less, they still see it, and it can affect them as well.

[EmpireMaker]

Salvador Perez (Royals C)
+9 potential hits gained / 76% shift rate


You’re surprised by this one, and so are we, somewhat. But Perez faced a shift on three-quarters of his plate appearances in 2022, triple what it had been in '18, so teams clearly felt it was worth doing more and more -- i.e., taking hits away from him. His BABIP this past year was 74 points higher against a standard defense than it was against the shift.

[EmpireMaker]

Rowdy Tellez (Brewers 1B/DH)
+8 potential hits gained / 78% shift rate


This one is easy, because Tellez makes it easy. There were 53 batters who had at least 200 batted balls against a shift. Tellez went opposite field against it lower than all but one other, which is a great way of saying “shift me all you want, I do not care, I will not change.” That’s a lot of balls hit right into the teeth of it.

[EmpireMaker]

Abraham Toro (Brewers INF)
+8 potential hits gained / 77% shift rate (LHB); 8% (RHB)


Toro, traded from Seattle earlier this month, actually had nine potential hits taken away as a lefty hitter, but he would have been expected to lose one as a righty, landing on eight total.

[EmpireMaker]

Alex Bregman (Astros 3B)
+8 potential hits gained / 58% shift rate


It’s interesting to note that after three years being shifted around 30% annually, that mark almost doubled in 2022 to 58%. It’s not hard to see that as a reaction to how much he sells out to pull for power, as nearly 80% of his extra-base hits were pulled -- and just look at his ground ball spray chart. No wonder teams put three on the left side.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Sounds like Machado wants 10 years 400 million and he will probably get it