Karablog: Bold fantasy pitching options for each team
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Time is running out for some final thoughts before the season commences with a pair of games Thursday night, so I thought it might be a good idea to take one final quick tour around the league. I'm looking for some bold fantasy options, starting today with the pitchers. Here we go!
Arizona Diamondbacks: The analytical community seems so unanimous in its belief that Madison Bumgarner will brutally fail outside San Francisco. You know what? I say go and get him cheap. Watch him fall in drafts and then enjoy the 3.75 ERA and a whiff per inning. Of course, Zac Gallen five rounds later is the better bargain. Watch underrated Kevin Ginkel force his way into at least five saves.
Atlanta Braves: I like Mike Soroka, but his ERA will jump a run. Now, a 3.75 mark still leads the rotation, but be careful investing here, thanks to the mild K rate. I'm not a big fan of Max Fried, either. He earned his 4.02 ERA last season. The top Atlanta pitcher on this 2020 Rater: closer Mark Melancon. Oh, and nary a save for Will Smith, nary a start for Cole Hamels. Too negative? Too bold? Too many "narys?"
Baltimore Orioles: Nope. Nothing positive to say here. Avoid John Means and Hunter Harvey, each already dealing with arm fatigue. Nothing to save here anyway. Seriously, just no. Richard Bleier might lead the Rater for Orioles pitchers and still be outside the top 300 overall pitchers. C'mon!
Chicago Cubs: The problem with Yu Darvish, even if he walks nobody, is that he won only 6 of 31 starts last season and now things are harder with the shortened preseason and universal DH. Watch him win 7 of 12 outings, just to prove how ridiculous and unpredictable the win stat is. I'm cautiously all-in. I'm not cautiously all-out on Craig Kimbrel. Rowan Wick is better now.
Cincinnati Reds: The pending NL Central champs have the arms, because Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo can do it again. Trevor Bauer wants to get paid, so watch his bloated ERA slide down to about 3.25. He's a smart fellow who misses bats and is constantly trying to improve. Michael Lorenzen is ready to steal some saves from Raisel Iglesias. Both pitchers need to avoid the home run. Jose De Leon? He's a good story, but there's nothing there for fantasy.
Cleveland Indians: The pending AL Central champs also have the arms, and I picked Mike Clevinger to win the Cy Young. How about an ERA around 2.30 with a 13.0 K/9? That works! Carlos Carrasco bounces back with a 3.50 ERA and plenty of whiffs, too. Even Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale win games with sub-4.00 ERAs, considering the cake schedule. James Karinchak steals some of Brad Hand's saves, but not right away.
Colorado Rockies: Good luck with German Marquez and Jon Gray. They still have to pitch at elevation. I'm not saying I'm investing in left-hander Kyle Freeland, but do not forget his 2018 season. Maximize these three -- yep, not just the right-handers -- in road games. As for Wade Davis, there is nothing bold about saying he loses the closer role. Scott Oberg saves more games than both Davis and Jairo Diaz.
Detroit Tigers: Do not draft Michael Fulmer just because he used to be good. It has been a while. Also, do not compare Casey Mize and Matt Manning to Nate Pearson and Spencer Howard. The Tigers are not contenders, so they are not pushing their prospects. Spencer Turnbull posts a sub-4.00 ERA. He did have a sub-4.00 FIP as a rookie, you know, so this is not so bold a pick. Still, most are not aware.
Houston Astros:Josh James over Lance McCullers Jr. makes sense to me. At 27, James is no kid, but he is durable and misses bats. Invest heavily. I'm a bit concerned about when Jose Urquidy finally pitches, but I was going with him over McCullers, too. As for the bullpen, wait a week and Roberto Osuna will be closing, but rookie Bryan Abreu is ready to accrue wins and whiffs in middle relief.
Kansas City Royals: Eh, not much to see here other than underrated closer Ian Kennedy, who absolutely was legit for the final four months last season and can thrive again. He deserves a roster spot in all leagues, roto or points. As with Detroit, we will not see enough of prospects like Kris Bubic and Daniel Lynch for fantasy until much later this season.
Los Angeles Angels: OK, I will give Shohei Ohtani the weekly Sunday starts (10 of them), and I'll give him a 3.20 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. He is legit, but a bit risky as well. He will give fantasy managers more value on the mound than at the plate this season. That is where I might roster him. By the way, I think Dylan Bundyhas to be better than he was in Baltimore, but Ohtani-like numbers are tough to imagine. A sub-4.00 ERA would convince me for 2021.
Los Angeles Dodgers: I've been seeing a lot of Julio Urias on my myriad fantasy teams because he will break out this truncated season for an ERA around 3.00, with a strikeout per frame. Ross Stripling is ready to shine as well. Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are merely insurance policies for this deep squad and not fantasy relevant options, though people seem to love them. Kenley Jansen keeps the closer role, but Blake Treinen bounces back and has the better numbers, very similar to the Cubs' situation. Miami Marlins:Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez work for NL-only managers, but in mixed leagues, with their K-rates, meh. Caleb Smith is the top Miami pitcher in fantasy, and prospect Sixto Sanchez gets five starts and nearly matches him. Avoid the bullpen.
Milwaukee Brewers:Brandon Woodruff already broke out, but he does have top-20 starting pitcher upside. Corbin Burnes is next to break out. He is starting in Game 2! Ignore his 2019 numbers. He has massive upside and he has a rotation spot. I wish I had invested in him more. It's the same with Freddy Peralta. These fellows miss bats. Speaking of, Josh Hader is great, but he splits the saves with Corey Knebel. You know Craig Counsell wants a right-hander for the ninth inning, too.
Minnesota Twins:Kenta Maeda is a bit like Bumgarner for the home/road splits and new home ballpark, but nobody seems to mention that. Again, I think Maeda can overcome it, and he has top-40 pitcher upside. As for lefty Rich Hill, he takes the same path out of Los Angeles, but durability issues weaken his case. Maeda has the better ERA and WHIP. There are no bullpen issues here.
New York Mets: It's a strong bullpen and Edwin Diaz has so little margin for error. That's why it's almost not fair to expect he is going to keep the closer role with so much talent around him. Dellin Betances is next in line, and Seth Lugo is the multi-inning option getting wins. After Jacob deGrom, there's not much to invest in. Marcus Stroman puts too many runners on base.
New York Yankees:Jordan Montgomery had a 3.88 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP as a rookie in 2017. He returns to this level, but wait a week or two for him to return to the rotation. A week after that, we'll see rookie Clarke Schmidt debut with similar rate stats. Zack Britton is a popular free-agent addition today, but not for long.
Philadelphia Phillies: Spencer Howard debuts in the eighth game of the season and quickly establishes himself as a top-40 fantasy pitcher. Get him before it is too late. Hector Neris had better be good, because this bullpen is a big problem. Joe Girardi has never had a bullpen this unproven.
San Diego Padres: Rookie MacKenzie Gore debuts in late August and dominates right away. Garrett Richards finally makes all his available starts and keeps his ERA on the good side of 3.50. That's a good story to root for in San Diego, to be sure.
San Francisco Giants: Give Johnny Cueto a chance. (Well, at least in the home games.) The left-handed Tyler Anderson, free of regular outings at Coors Field, finishes with the lowest ERA of the starters. That seems bold. Tony Watson solidifies the closer role, sans adventure.
St. Louis Cardinals: They say newcomer Kwang-Hyun Kim is closing, but I still think Giovanny Gallegos ends up with the most saves. Carlos Martinez posts a 3.40 ERA as a starter, which is fine, but also right around his career mark. Remember he was never a beacon of WHIP goodness (thanks to the walks) in the first place. He's seems a tad overrated and with injury risk.
Tampa Bay Rays: So if I predicted a Cy Young Award for Clevinger, by the same theme, Tyler Glasnow could be really special as well. Just expect shorter outings from him early on. As for Blake Snell, I would like to think he can have another monster season like 2018 again, but what if he is the left-handed Trevor Bauer with his one aberrant season. Pass on Brendan McKay until 2021 and then give me the shares.
Texas Rangers: Perhaps the new stadium, across the street from the not-so-old one, is far more pitcher-friendly. Perhaps it is not. Whatever the case, I boast a whole lot of shares of Lance Lynn and Mike Minor. Like, a lot. I also have some of Corey Kluber, and none of Jordan Lyles or Kyle Gibson. Why exactly will Lynn and Minor terribly regress? I see value, yet again.
Toronto Blue Jays: Give me all the Nate Pearson shares, too. It's fine with me if he misses the first six days of the season. Strikeout monsters are worth the wait. I avoided all the other Jays starters. Hyun-Jin Ryu could be great outside of Los Angeles, but I spy an ERA on the awry side of 4.00. By the way, Ken Giles is fine as your first closer. Just fine.
Washington Nationals: The champions bring back the Big Three and, while I avoided the right-handers back in March (mainly due to the concern of major innings later in 2019 and potential injury), I kept getting Patrick Corbin. Has he actually become safer than Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, though lacking the upside? Perhaps so. This team absolutely can win again, too.
Chicago White Sox: I really wanted to see Michael Kopech thrive this season. I think he would have been the No. 2 pitcher here after Lucas Giolito. I will not go near Reynaldo Lopez in fantasy. Perhaps that 5.38 ERA of his should have been a run lower, but is that special? Prospect Jonathan Stiever makes a fantasy impact this season. Aaron Bummer, against conventional fantasy logic, does not. Cincinnati Reds: The pending NL Central champs have the arms, because Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo can do it again. Trevor Bauer wants to get paid, so watch his bloated ERA slide down to about 3.25. He's a smart fellow who misses bats and is constantly trying to improve. Michael Lorenzen is ready to steal some saves from Raisel Iglesias. Both pitchers need to avoid the home run. Jose De Leon? He's a good story, but there's nothing there for fantasy. Cleveland Indians: The pending AL Central champs also have the arms, and I picked Mike Clevinger to win the Cy Young. How about an ERA around 2.30 with a 13.0 K/9? That works! Carlos Carrasco bounces back with a 3.50 ERA and plenty of whiffs, too. Even Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale win games with sub-4.00 ERAs, considering the cake schedule. James Karinchak steals some of Brad Hand's saves, but not right away. Colorado Rockies: Good luck with German Marquez and Jon Gray. They still have to pitch at elevation. I'm not saying I'm investing in left-hander Kyle Freeland, but do not forget his 2018 season. Maximize these three -- yep, not just the right-handers -- in road games. As for Wade Davis, there is nothing bold about saying he loses the closer role. Scott Oberg saves more games than both Davis and Jairo Diaz.
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Bold fantasy pitching options for each team ⚾
Arizona Diamondbacks: The analytical community seems so unanimous in its belief that Madison Bumgarner will brutally fail outside San Francisco. You know what? I say go and get him cheap. Watch him fall in drafts and then enjoy the 3.75 ERA and a whiff per inning. Of course, Zac Gallen five rounds later is the better bargain. Watch underrated Kevin Ginkel force his way into at least five saves.
Atlanta Braves: I like Mike Soroka, but his ERA will jump a run. Now, a 3.75 mark still leads the rotation, but be careful investing here, thanks to the mild K rate. I'm not a big fan of Max Fried, either. He earned his 4.02 ERA last season. The top Atlanta pitcher on this 2020 Rater: closer Mark Melancon. Oh, and nary a save for Will Smith, nary a start for Cole Hamels. Too negative? Too bold? Too many "narys?"
Baltimore Orioles: Nope. Nothing positive to say here. Avoid John Means and Hunter Harvey, each already dealing with arm fatigue. Nothing to save here anyway. Seriously, just no. Richard Bleier might lead the Rater for Orioles pitchers and still be outside the top 300 overall pitchers. C'mon!
Boston Red Sox: Sorry to continue the negativity, but Martin Perez, Brian Johnson and Ryan Weber? Nathan Eovaldi has a career 4.30 ERA and a very below pedestrian K-rate. What upside are people seeing? One World Series loss? Brandon Workman and Matt Barnes are legit, but the staff ERA will be on the wrong side of 5.00, even if Eduardo Rodriguez makes 10 starts -- and he clearly might not.
Chicago Cubs: The problem with Yu Darvish, even if he walks nobody, is that he won only 6 of 31 starts last season and now things are harder with the shortened preseason and universal DH. Watch him win 7 of 12 outings, just to prove how ridiculous and unpredictable the win stat is. I'm cautiously all-in. I'm not cautiously all-out on Craig Kimbrel. Rowan Wick is better now.
Cincinnati Reds: The pending NL Central champs have the arms, because Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo can do it again. Trevor Bauer wants to get paid, so watch his bloated ERA slide down to about 3.25. He's a smart fellow who misses bats and is constantly trying to improve. Michael Lorenzen is ready to steal some saves from Raisel Iglesias. Both pitchers need to avoid the home run. Jose De Leon? He's a good story, but there's nothing there for fantasy.
Cleveland Indians: The pending AL Central champs also have the arms, and I picked Mike Clevinger to win the Cy Young. How about an ERA around 2.30 with a 13.0 K/9? That works! Carlos Carrasco bounces back with a 3.50 ERA and plenty of whiffs, too. Even Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale win games with sub-4.00 ERAs, considering the cake schedule. James Karinchak steals some of Brad Hand's saves, but not right away.
Colorado Rockies: Good luck with German Marquez and Jon Gray. They still have to pitch at elevation. I'm not saying I'm investing in left-hander Kyle Freeland, but do not forget his 2018 season. Maximize these three -- yep, not just the right-handers -- in road games. As for Wade Davis, there is nothing bold about saying he loses the closer role. Scott Oberg saves more games than both Davis and Jairo Diaz.
Detroit Tigers: Do not draft Michael Fulmer just because he used to be good. It has been a while. Also, do not compare Casey Mize and Matt Manning to Nate Pearson and Spencer Howard. The Tigers are not contenders, so they are not pushing their prospects. Spencer Turnbull posts a sub-4.00 ERA. He did have a sub-4.00 FIP as a rookie, you know, so this is not so bold a pick. Still, most are not aware.
Houston Astros: Josh James over Lance McCullers Jr. makes sense to me. At 27, James is no kid, but he is durable and misses bats. Invest heavily. I'm a bit concerned about when Jose Urquidy finally pitches, but I was going with him over McCullers, too. As for the bullpen, wait a week and Roberto Osuna will be closing, but rookie Bryan Abreu is ready to accrue wins and whiffs in middle relief.
Kansas City Royals: Eh, not much to see here other than underrated closer Ian Kennedy, who absolutely was legit for the final four months last season and can thrive again. He deserves a roster spot in all leagues, roto or points. As with Detroit, we will not see enough of prospects like Kris Bubic and Daniel Lynch for fantasy until much later this season.
Los Angeles Angels: OK, I will give Shohei Ohtani the weekly Sunday starts (10 of them), and I'll give him a 3.20 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. He is legit, but a bit risky as well. He will give fantasy managers more value on the mound than at the plate this season. That is where I might roster him. By the way, I think Dylan Bundy has to be better than he was in Baltimore, but Ohtani-like numbers are tough to imagine. A sub-4.00 ERA would convince me for 2021.
Los Angeles Dodgers: I've been seeing a lot of Julio Urias on my myriad fantasy teams because he will break out this truncated season for an ERA around 3.00, with a strikeout per frame. Ross Stripling is ready to shine as well. Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are merely insurance policies for this deep squad and not fantasy relevant options, though people seem to love them. Kenley Jansen keeps the closer role, but Blake Treinen bounces back and has the better numbers, very similar to the Cubs' situation.
Miami Marlins: Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez work for NL-only managers, but in mixed leagues, with their K-rates, meh. Caleb Smith is the top Miami pitcher in fantasy, and prospect Sixto Sanchez gets five starts and nearly matches him. Avoid the bullpen.
Milwaukee Brewers: Brandon Woodruff already broke out, but he does have top-20 starting pitcher upside. Corbin Burnes is next to break out. He is starting in Game 2! Ignore his 2019 numbers. He has massive upside and he has a rotation spot. I wish I had invested in him more. It's the same with Freddy Peralta. These fellows miss bats. Speaking of, Josh Hader is great, but he splits the saves with Corey Knebel. You know Craig Counsell wants a right-hander for the ninth inning, too.
Minnesota Twins: Kenta Maeda is a bit like Bumgarner for the home/road splits and new home ballpark, but nobody seems to mention that. Again, I think Maeda can overcome it, and he has top-40 pitcher upside. As for lefty Rich Hill, he takes the same path out of Los Angeles, but durability issues weaken his case. Maeda has the better ERA and WHIP. There are no bullpen issues here.
New York Mets: It's a strong bullpen and Edwin Diaz has so little margin for error. That's why it's almost not fair to expect he is going to keep the closer role with so much talent around him. Dellin Betances is next in line, and Seth Lugo is the multi-inning option getting wins. After Jacob deGrom, there's not much to invest in. Marcus Stroman puts too many runners on base.
New York Yankees: Jordan Montgomery had a 3.88 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP as a rookie in 2017. He returns to this level, but wait a week or two for him to return to the rotation. A week after that, we'll see rookie Clarke Schmidt debut with similar rate stats. Zack Britton is a popular free-agent addition today, but not for long.
Oakland Athletics: Lefty Sean Manaea did not throw particularly hard in his most recent outing. That is worrisome. Frankie Montas is the ace here -- and the only one now that young A.J. Puk has a barking shoulder. What a shame. Liam Hendriks dominates again. Yusmeiro Petit wins five games.
Philadelphia Phillies: Spencer Howard debuts in the eighth game of the season and quickly establishes himself as a top-40 fantasy pitcher. Get him before it is too late. Hector Neris had better be good, because this bullpen is a big problem. Joe Girardi has never had a bullpen this unproven.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Mitch Keller finally figures out the first inning and delivers the same overall numbers that ace Joe Musgrove does, which is good enough. Nick Burdi will lead the club with six saves.
San Diego Padres: Rookie MacKenzie Gore debuts in late August and dominates right away. Garrett Richards finally makes all his available starts and keeps his ERA on the good side of 3.50. That's a good story to root for in San Diego, to be sure.
San Francisco Giants: Give Johnny Cueto a chance. (Well, at least in the home games.) The left-handed Tyler Anderson, free of regular outings at Coors Field, finishes with the lowest ERA of the starters. That seems bold. Tony Watson solidifies the closer role, sans adventure.
Seattle Mariners: Sorry, avoid it all -- even lefty Marco Gonzales, who simply does not miss enough bats. We need the whiffs. Perhaps it is Matt Magill closing, or Yoshihisa Hirano or Austin Adams, but it is tough to see many save chances here.
St. Louis Cardinals: They say newcomer Kwang-Hyun Kim is closing, but I still think Giovanny Gallegos ends up with the most saves. Carlos Martinez posts a 3.40 ERA as a starter, which is fine, but also right around his career mark. Remember he was never a beacon of WHIP goodness (thanks to the walks) in the first place. He's seems a tad overrated and with injury risk.
Tampa Bay Rays: So if I predicted a Cy Young Award for Clevinger, by the same theme, Tyler Glasnow could be really special as well. Just expect shorter outings from him early on. As for Blake Snell, I would like to think he can have another monster season like 2018 again, but what if he is the left-handed Trevor Bauer with his one aberrant season. Pass on Brendan McKay until 2021 and then give me the shares.
Texas Rangers: Perhaps the new stadium, across the street from the not-so-old one, is far more pitcher-friendly. Perhaps it is not. Whatever the case, I boast a whole lot of shares of Lance Lynn and Mike Minor. Like, a lot. I also have some of Corey Kluber, and none of Jordan Lyles or Kyle Gibson. Why exactly will Lynn and Minor terribly regress? I see value, yet again.
Toronto Blue Jays: Give me all the Nate Pearson shares, too. It's fine with me if he misses the first six days of the season. Strikeout monsters are worth the wait. I avoided all the other Jays starters. Hyun-Jin Ryu could be great outside of Los Angeles, but I spy an ERA on the awry side of 4.00. By the way, Ken Giles is fine as your first closer. Just fine.
Washington Nationals: The champions bring back the Big Three and, while I avoided the right-handers back in March (mainly due to the concern of major innings later in 2019 and potential injury), I kept getting Patrick Corbin. Has he actually become safer than Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, though lacking the upside? Perhaps so. This team absolutely can win again, too.
Chicago White Sox: I really wanted to see Michael Kopech thrive this season. I think he would have been the No. 2 pitcher here after Lucas Giolito. I will not go near Reynaldo Lopez in fantasy. Perhaps that 5.38 ERA of his should have been a run lower, but is that special? Prospect Jonathan Stiever makes a fantasy impact this season. Aaron Bummer, against conventional fantasy logic, does not.
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