[Harry N. Lloyd]

Boyz,

Turned a nice profit in this 2010 college football season, both with my side plays (62-42) and with my "total package" plays (50-44). Gonna hope to cap it off with a successful Bowl campaign. I will combine my plays and totals selections right here in the same thread.

FRESNO STATE +1- against NORTHERN ILLINOIS

If this game were played a month ago, I would've sided with Northern Illinois laying double digits. But obviously things have changed. All the momentum and intangibles are with Fresno in this Humanitarian Bowl showdown. The Broncos had a great year, as evidenced by their 9-3 record (straight up and ATS). They averaged 265 ypg on the ground, a whopping 6.2 ypc. Closer inspection however shows that they faced the 119th (outta 120) difficulty of schedule. They played a lot of cupcakes. They also laid a foul-smelling egg in their conference Championship game, losing outright to Miami-Ohio as a 17- point favorite. After that game, their highly-regarded coach (Kill) left for greener pastures, bringing with him his 2 top assistant coaches. The wheels appear to be off, at least temporarily, for Northern Illinois. Fresno meanwhile finished up their regular season with an impressive victory over Illinois. The Boise crowd will strongly favor the Bulldogs. Go with Fresno, as they should win outright.

More plays to follow as I see fit.

As always, best of luck.
Harry

2010 college plays, 62-42
2010 college totals, 50-44

[SECOND SHIFT]

Good luck Harry, I'l be following.

[FeelinJuiced]

I like the logic, like the play... BOL!!

[pdx107]

I must say I like Fresno as well

[jwbama23]

A couple shops have bumped it back to 2 points already.

Im on Northern Illinois -1 but who knows with these bowl games

[suman]

Gl with all the plays this year

[Going4Broke]

Thanks for the picks and BOL!

[Big Dave's Picks]

BOL Harry I have tailed a few times this year and always look forward to your analysis. I like your logic with the Fresno pk, and I wonder if N.ILL. players knew thier coach was gone after the conf. title game? Anyhow thanks again Big Dave.

[BiffTFinancial]

like Fresno a lot, Harry, nice write-up. BOL to you.

[JMF2479]

I'm on Fresno too

[CBASS]

Good luck this bowl season Harry!

[docvinny]

thanks for the insight and good luck Harry

[JMF2479]

Does the weather affect your pick?

[sweethook]

if anyone would know id say it your man, gl

[FJ_islander]

GL with you pick Harry. I hope that you are able to continue with your wins all the way into the bowl season as well.

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Does the weather affect your pick?

No. Still like Fresno. They're bigger and stronger.

[Harry N. Lloyd]

A giant OOPS on the Fresno pick, boyz! I totally misjudged the significance of Northern Illinois' coach situation. The Broncos were a far better team today and, in fact, seemed better prepared. Kudos to that interim coach. As for the poor bet.....we'll get it back in the games to come.

Harry

[ronjon619]

Broncos?

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Broncos?

Er.....brain cramp, or too much egg nog.......Huskies.

[docvinny]

not your fault, Fresno forgot to show up after their opening drive

[JMF2479]

Shit happens. There are plenty of games left

[spongerat]

say boise -17 next please

[shopbar picks]

Harry i really like the over in this game. In Sunny FLA. SoMs should put up enough points to win. And they give up 30ppg. Thoughts? Thanx for the picks. Slim@ Spb

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Sorry, Shopbar....don't have a strong feeling about the Louisville/S.Miss game or the total. Not seeing these early bowl games with any clarity. Got a few good plays coming up soon.

Harry

[shopbar picks]

0k thank you.

[DangerousOne]

Harry i really like the over in this game. In Sunny FLA. SoMs should put up enough points to win. And they give up 30ppg. Thoughts? Thanx for the picks. Slim@ Spb

This game won't see much sunshine... it's in a dome.

[shopbar picks]

My buddy cory does not think utah has a chance here. Kellen Moore got snubbed has had a good career. And will seek revenge. In his opinion utah scores 10pts. So Boise has to make up the difference to hit 60+. For the over. Thanx for the input. Slim@Sbp

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Boyz, was gonna sit this one out but late line moves are working in my favor....

SAN DIEGO STATE/NAVY - OVER 58

Last week the Aztecs were favored by 5 but obviously the money has come in on Navy, as the line is now only -3. The reason, no doubt, has something to do with the heavy rain which has soaked the field. The sloppy conditions seem to favor the triple option of Navy as opposed to the passing attack of SD State. The total has similarly moved down, going from 60- to 58. I'm seeing this dip as value, as I think the game will easily score into the 60s. Neither team is equipped to stop the other. The Aztecs have tall, fast, talented receivers. The Middies secondary will be overmatched. The Aztecs should put up close to 350 yds through the air alone. Navy meanwhile will dominate on the ground. They average over 300 yds/game rushing, an impressive 5.5 ypc. The wet field will make them only tougher to contain. The San Diego rain has subsided but the field will be slippery--advantage offenses. Both teams should move the ball at will and this one goes OVER.

As always, best of luck.
Harry

[masr]

Likin the over...Good luck

[BiffTFinancial]

totally agree with the over and your match-ups analysis, Harry. watched that line all day, and as soon as it jumped at The Greek, i nabbed it at 58'. would've been nice to get 57', but the main thing is not losing on a 59. BOL to you tonight.

[docvinny]

I agree with your thinking harry and I am also gonna take navy +3

[docvinny]

well navy didn't show up for the game last night, onto the next one

[CBASS]

bump!

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Boyz,

Can't fully explain it.....but these bowl games are boring the shit outta me. Teams that haven't played in over a month playing meaningless games, coaches coming and going, players suspended. How can any sane person prefer this crap over a college football championship complete with playoffs?? And you know who's complicit in this crime against humanity? ESPN. They're broadcasting 95% of these bowl games. Complete garbage. These games offer less viewing excitement than NFL pre-season games. If it weren't for Vegas and their betting lines, who would give a crap who wins between Toledo and Florida International? Or West Virginia and NC State for that matter?

Jaded? No.....pissed is more like it. Hope I live long enough to see "December Madness" finally come. Don't care if I never hear the words 'bowl game' again. That said, I'm hanging up my pencil and leather visor for the rest of the season. I will return in the Fall. Until then, best of luck and a happy new year to all of you.

Harry

2010 college plays, 62-43
2010 college totals, 50-45

p.s. Not an official play but.....I lean to the UNDER in the Missouri/Iowa game.

[ebbearsfb1]

good luck