[jeepsguy004]

Toldeo at N. Illinois

Opening Line: N Illinois -12 Over Under 48.5
Current Line: N Illinois -11 or -10.5 Over Under 49.5 or 50

Play Under 50 -110 Betjamaica

Both of these teams come into this game showing that they can score points. Toldeo is averaging 36 points per game their last 3 games. N. Illinois is averaging 35 points per game their last 3 games. With both teams scoring like this I have to wonder why they opened this total at 48.5. Well these two teams have played great defense as of late. Toledo is only allowing 17 points while N. Illinois is allowing only 14 points per game. N. Illinois is only allowing 14 points per game at home also this year. By opening this line at only 48.5 the books are saying that we should see a tough defensive game.

Their are a few trends that I like for this game. The under is 7-3 in Toledo's last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or greater. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 games that N. Illinois has played on a Tuesday night. The Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 games that N Illinois has played after a bye week. The under is 3-1-2 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The under is 2-1 in Toledo's 3 conference road games this year. The under is 2-1 in the 3 home conference games that N Illinois has played in this year.

N. Illinois is a team that likes to run the ball. We see that since they do average about 243 yards per game on the ground. That does eat up clock. Toledo is actrually pretty solid at stopping the run allowing only 116 yards per game this year on the ground. Both of these teams are in the top 50 for yards allowed per game on defense. With both teams coming off a bye week and having the time to prepare for this game the defense's from both teams should be well rested and should dictate this game.

I really like that we are getting some value with the over being bet and moving this line up. The public likes the offense that these two teams have displayed as of late and we see that they are betting it also. I am believer in defense and that is how big games are won. This is a very big game since both teams are 5-0 in conference and are 1 and 2 seeds in the MAC West division. I believe that the under is the right play in this game.

Good Luck Everyone!

[dngf]

Nice write up. For many of the reasons you have described I like getting 11 points and Toledo. Their young QB Owens threw for 4 TDs last week, granted it was Eastern Michigan, but it was on the road and should give him some confidence against the Huskies. Even though both are already bowl eligible, I see Toledo putting up a fight and staying within the number. Good luck.