[dume walker]

Central Florida opened at -4 1/2 on the road against Houston. Line dropped to -3.5 almost immediately and is now down to -2.5. Yes, Houston's freshman QB (who has taken over with Keenum out) has been doing well. They put a beatdown on Memphis this Saturday (not a stellar opponent) and upset SMU the week before. Still, he is a freshman QB and he'll be going up against one of the best defenses in the country with UCF, who just had a significant win against ECU. Both teams will be playing on only 6 days rest.

UCF has won 6 in a row ATS. They're the only team undefeated in C-USA play. So could these be the reasons for the line drop? Bettors figuring they're due? Seeing this as a road letdown game after beating ECU?

Anyone have any special insight into this?

[HoulihansTX]

I think the betting marketplace has noticed that the production with the freshman QB is on par is Case Keenum. which makes since, b/c Houston is a system driven offense. Doesn't matter of it's Peyton Manning, or Jamarcus Russell the QB is throwing for a great amount of yards.

So with Case Keenum, Houston is laying points. Bettors see value with the home dog.