[cappinthepigs]

Saturday will offer up some of the better matchups of the year and some good value plays as well.

I'm going to start trying something new in NCAAF by focusing on the conference I know best and that is the SEC. I'm going to break down all of the match-ups in the SEC for this week rather I have a play on them or not. You’ll notice in my write-ups that I give a HUGE bias to home vs road stats. Some people may not believe it, but in the SEC a home games isn’t only worth 3 pts, I think it’s worth more, sometimes MUCH more!

Tennessee @ South Carolina -17.5 / 48.5

The Vols are off to a miserable start in SEC play 0-4 but have faced 4 of the typical SEC powers so far this year in their losses, by 31 vs Bama, 27 @ Georgia, 2 @ LSU, & 14 vs Florida (a team that hasn't been playing that well since then). The Vols are terrible on offense averaging only 13.7 PPG in conference games while giving up 32.2 PPG in those same contests. They are averaging only 52.5 YPG rushing on the road good for 118th!! in the nation while the Gamecocks are giving up only 53.75 YPG on the ground at home for a solid 4th in the country. Basically that means the Vols won't be able to run the ball at all. Can they throw it? Maybe, but Simms isn't exactly Ryan Mallet. The only reason I would think that they'd be able to throw the ball is because of South Carolina's paltry pass denense. The Gamecocks are giving up a total of 279.5 YPG @ home passing. They will have to throw it to keep this game close.

South Carolina is averaging 32.5 PPG @ home on the year but I personally and many I know around here that watch the SEC know that the Gamecocks aren't a good offensive team. Last week against a terrible Vandy team they managed to put up a grand total of 21 pts. Garcia isn't a very good quarterback regardless of the #'s or perception nationally. He may very well be the worst QB in the SEC (possbily better than Simms if any) but he manages to win. The Old ball coach does the same most times except for this Rivalry against Tenn. The Gamecocks are only 2-13 SU and 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 vs the Vols. The only time they were favored (in 08 by 6) they did however cover and win by 21. Bottom line this is too many points for S. Carolina to be giving up to anyone in league play. They will probably win and may by 10, 14, or even 17, but that hook is gonna hurt em!

Play on Tennessee +17.5 -110 (BetJam) Risking 1 Unit to win 0.91 Units

Florida @ Georgia -2 / 48

A Florida Gators team that has dropped 3 games ATS, and 3 straight games SU (for the first time since 1988 that’s 22 years) heads to Georgia to face a Bulldog team that has now won 3 straight games SU and ATS after a horrible start to the season. The Gators and Bulldogs appear to be heading in opposite directions. The Bulldogs only give up 13 home. The Bulldogs only give up 33.5 YPG rushing @ Home, but do give up over 209 YPG passing in those games. The Florida offensive #’s in road games are: 18.5 PPG, 114.5 RYPG, 184.5 PYPG & 3 Turnovers per game on the road for 109th in the country! Those 3 turnovers per game could be a problem because this Georgia team averages 2 takeaways per game in home games. Bottom line is Florida isn’t going to gain much yardage on the ground and will have to take to the air or just try to grind it out. But they MUST hold onto the ball. The Georgia offense however averages 31.50 PPG, 153.75 RYPG, 228.38 PYPG, and just 1 turnover per game in home games. The Gators are very good against the pass (166.57 PYPG on defense in road games) so it looks like the Bulldogs will need to run it to get the win here. Florida has won 8 of the last 10 in the series SU.

NO PLAY on this game. Lean to Georgia and The Under

[HoulihansTX]

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