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NCAAF Week 7 Blowjobs (60% +32.83x)
NCAAF Week 1: 18-8 (+9.40x) (69%)
NCAAF Week 2: 10-5 (+0.60x) (66%)
NCAAF Week 3: 13-10 (+3.78x) (56%)
NCAAF Week 4: 14-14 (-0.20x) (50%)
NCAAF Week 5: 12-7 (+12.65x) (63%)
NCAAF Week 6: 15-9 (+6.60x) (62%)
NCAAF 2010 Season: 82-55 (+32.83x) (60%)
GL everyone. New Week. Starting to look at some shit.
Texas A&M -3 (2x)
Had to jump on this number before it went off of 3. Opened at 1.5 and quickly bet up at Bookmaker too -3. Missouri is looking pretty overvalued at this point. Sure a 5-0 record looks great but they haven't been less then 12 point favorites all year. They have been winning comfortably against the likes of Illinois (who ran all over them), McNeese State, San Diego State (who they only beat by 3 and also ran all over them), Miami Ohio, and Colorado. A&M opened the year with their two cupcakes then beat Florida International by 7 which some will consider a bad game from them. But anyone who has read my thread knows I am sky high on FIU and I just consider them another victim of underestimating FIU's ability. They dropped two straight but how could you blame them? @ Oklahoma State and against Arkansas aren't games many teams are going to win. Missouri is going to have big problems with Jerrod Johnson, especially when he pulls it down to run. Missouri gave up 250 yards and 7.6 yards per carry to a San Diego State rushing attack that doesn't bother many people. Now they get a rushing attack with A&M averaging over 170 yards per game. More on this game later...
Very nice pick. This one stood out to me too and booked it as well. I think A&M is better prepared by playing a tougher schedule. This is also the first time Missouri is going on the road too.Originally Posted by GiveMeaBJ
Yup, also saw Missouri was being protected by a home field advantage on top of playing an easy schedule. Although Missouri did play Illinois on a neutral field to open the season. I watched that game and wasn't really impressed by them. A&M has shown me something in the past two weeks and now finally go home to host a 5-0 overrated Missouri team.
Indeed, Mizzou is the weakest of the 13 remaining undefeated teams.
missouri is overrated. anything thoughts on monday night?
Jets & Over.
what a good week of football..here are my leans for this week if you are a guy who likes trends check em out.
Bowling Green/ Temple Over 54.5 (Temple RB is coming back for this one..he'll run all over BG defense)
Virginia 1-11 ATS vs UNC...and Last 5 match ups went under and both these teams are ranked top 40 in defense
Texas 1-7 ATS last 8 games (this QB from Nebraska is tough, I think hes got all the confidence in the world after last weeks game)
Boise St/ San Jose State Over 56 (to me this seems like a no brainer, both teams put up points and all SJSU will need to score is 7, Boise will take care of the rest)
Also looking at the under in the OSU/Wisc game. Tressel has the #1 spot and transforms into MR CONSERVATIVE. I look for John Clay to help eat up the clock and Tressel to play the field position game.
And it's not even close. Don't see many teams with a good chance to go undefeated this year other then TCU and Boise. Oregon seems the most likely just based on remaining schedule.
Wow look at that...2-0. Actually puts me + money for NFL Week 5. Maybe the start of a run?
Like that Boise St over play. Don't know about BG/Temple. Temple defense has been solid this year and I think we may see a pretty one sided game in that one. I just can't bet UNC on the road right now they have been winning for me but it is never pretty.
Good luck this week. Assuming your a Buck fan, honestly what is your score prediction because I think I am going towards Wisconsin.
the start of a runthats what I like hearing!! hey post up some early nfl plays if anything is tickling your fancy yet? last week you went 2-1 on the early plays and I and maybe others are keen for more
South Florida +10.5 (1x)
South Florida looked terrible last week. BJ Daniels looked incapable and I lost 3 units on them. But that loss has already left my mind and I am looking at what I know. I know Daniels is much better then he played. Last year against West Virginia he threw for 262 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 picks, and added another 104 yards on 14 attempts on the ground. South Florida has a history of playing the Mountaineers tough. In fact they have won 3 of the last 4 meetings. They have only played five times since USF came into existence and USF is 3-2 against WVU. The two losses were by 15 and 6 points with the 15 point loss coming back in 2005 and the 6 point loss coming in 2008. Why does USF play so well against the Mountaineers? Well we all know WVU has a very fast offense based on getting to the edges and getting their play makers into open space while utilizing the read option. But, USF's defenses are always very fast on the edges with great speed at DE and OLB which doesn't let WVU get outside very often for the big plays they thrive off of. This line shouldn't be double digits, WVU hasn't shown much. The win against UNLV was a great win but UNLV was very hurt by missing several very key players. Other then that they had a stinker vs Marshall, almost let Maryland get back into it, and a loss to LSU. This is a good match up for USF and a key instance of linesmakers factoring in the publics overreaction to last week.
Yea, slowing up in the NFL. Too many plays. Went back and looked at what I was doing last season and I wasn't playing nearly as many games as I have this year in the NFL. Lines are just too sharp. At least in college you have so many games you can capitalize on. I will from now on post each play when I make it.the start of a run
2010 NFL Season: 33-32 (-3.20x) (50.7%)
NFL actually isn't as bad as I thought. I can have that in the black in no time.
That Pitt/Cuse game is so interesting too me. Line movement favoring Cuse, Pitt can't be this bad can they? Going to wait and see with that one.
Rutgers -7 (1x)
Rutgers goes through the same cycle every year. Struggle against the so called "cup cakes" play bad in the non-conference games against quality schools and then start the Big East schedule and they look like a new team. They looked great last week with Chas Dodd at quarterback and it will be a shame if he doesn't get another start. Expect a lot of Sanu in the wildcat again and some RU trick plays they love to run. Army hasn't stayed within seven points of Rutgers since 1997 when Army pulled the upset. The thing here though, like last week, is the Rutgers defense. They are very underrated, aren't giving up many points, and are limiting opponents to under 100 yards on the ground and under 180 yards through the air. That is a winning formula right there. Last year @ Army they limited them to 1/11 on 3rd downs and 213 total yards.
i watch your thread alot, the only prob i have with you is your name, (but other than that) you seem to be a good capper, i really like the south florida pick, they struggled last week but i believe will be fine, also like the rutgers pick i lost a few units on them a couple of weeks ago (tulane) then got them back with the (W) over uconn, just hope they can don't struggle with the option.....now for your jets pick for mnf, surely your not going to keep that money, you should send it to me...anything but a pick (6)....nice play obvioulsy i was on the other end.....
cool
Definitely got lucky with the Jets, but just as quick I can point out games I got pretty unlucky on this week. Rutgers isn't a team that will get killed by the option. They play disciplined on defense and Schiano has handled it well. Good luck this week.
Iowa -3 -120 (3x)
Yea, I know, a big play against Michigan in the Big House. Not exactly the sharpest play I've ever made but I feel strong about it. Iowa had two weeks to prepare for this one which is big considering who they are going against. Denard Robinson has a ton of options on his plays and a ton of different looks which makes the two weeks to sit back and game plan all the more valuable. There was concern with what Robinson would do when playing against better Big 10 defenses. I think last week we saw. He averaged under 4 yards per carry and threw three interceptions. Let's face it, he is there whole team. They don't have a kicking game, they don't have a defense, and he is the leading rusher and passer. Now look at Iowa. They have one of the better defenses going and if Robinson keeps running into those big beefy defenders he is going to have a rough day. Iowa might be the most disciplined defense out there, the flashy offenses don't scare them much. The flashy Georgia Tech option only gained 155 total yards in the Orange Bowl in January. This flashy, speedy Michigan offense (mainly Robinson) should get shut down and Michigan can fall back to being Big Ten after thoughts.
I like the Iowa play but I have concerns about the Rutgers play ... mainly the fact that all of their games were close wins or loses decided by 5 points at the most ... so if this will be close +7 has value here ...
True, but it won't be. RU won't go through the year with all close games.
Wisconsin +4 (1x)
Not much I can do to explain this game. Not going to talk you into Wisconsin being the better team but Ohio St has history of playing poorly in Madison. Wisconsin great home field and great discipline. You saw it last week with the unbeatable Bama. Books set this line knowing the squares will flow money in on OSU. Just think Wisconsin wins this one.
I agree with the reasoning, I'm just a little confused as to why the early money seems to be coming in on Wisconsin. I would think the line should be moving towards OSU.
I think more money is coming in on Ohio St right now. More sharp money on Wisconsin explains the early line move from +6 to +4.
bj are all these the ones you will update on your spreadsheet with?
Typically yea. I don't know if I am doing the spreadsheet anymore. I was only doing it because of the bet I made. Me and the guy are negotiating a price for him to buy out now so unless that falls through I am just going to stop. When I spoke to him on Sunday we were debating because he said $850 and I said $1,300. If he wants to give me $1,300 I will take the roughly $1,000 that I won on the side by actually placing the bets and call it a day. If he says no I will just get to $3,000 and then make him buy out for more.
The problem for him is he has no chips to bargain with. He in his head thinks I am going to do it and so do I. So he has no leverage.
Wow great week last week.I ended up giving a lot back but still ended up on top which is the most important thing. I see that your big on South Florida again. I followed you on the syracuse game on Saturday and we saw how that turned out at home. I watched the game online and I have to admit that S Florida looked horrible, no offensive flow at all. a good running play and then two bad throws and a punt all day long. After the drumming that WVU put on a depleated UNLV team I find it hard to believe that South Florida is going to be able to go into WV and keep this game close. This time of year I think that with teams and players from down south, especially Florida, you have to start to take weather into the picture. I would think that the majority of the players on USF are from the florida area going into WV in the middle of October in weather that will probably be in the low 40's, on National TV, against 80k fans is not a good combination. If USF played better last saturday against a very poor Syracuse team I might be a little more inclined to be on board but I really dont see WV skipping a beat on this one. If it was a Saturday afternoon game, no national TV on Thursday night, I might see USF covering but just dont see it happening. What is your feeling on tomorrow nights game. UCF looked awesome last week against UAB> I know you were on UAB last week do you feel a little better about UCF this week going into one of the toughest places in America to get a victory. I know Marshall is on an off year but do you think they can stick with UCF???
so with all that said are these leans, or locked and loaded plays?
Hey BJ, I like the USF pick. Horrible game for them last week but like you said they play WV tough and its not like WV is some power house team. USF with solid D will keep this close and maybe, just maybe pull the upset special.
My play will be a normal play on Central Florida (a normal play for me is 300 dollars) I like to look at where the money is going not the percentage of bets through the vegas books to see how strong of a play I will make on a game. I stay away from the word lock. In eighteen years of football handicapping I have learned there is no such thing as a lock and anyone who says that truly does not have any clue about what college or pro betting is. Vegas is always the winner and those guys that are setting the lines are a lot better than I will ever be and I am smart enought to know that. I laught sometimes at some of the threads when people say that a game is a "lock" a true sports bettor knows there is no such thing.
In all honesty I am staying away from the point spread. I like the under in this game because I feel it will be a battle on the ground. The only way the Buckeyes cover is if Tressel puts his trust into Pryor to make some big plays. But unfortunately in a very hostile environment I think we will see Boom Herron with a lot of carries just like in the Illinois game. Like I said before the Bucks have the #1 spot locked up at the moment and once they get up a score, the typical eat the clock play calling will begin, hence why I like the under. My prediction is the Buckeyes will win SU but ATS I am unsure. No play for me good luck with whatever you pick. BTW I just saw a stat that the last 7 games at Camp Randall have gone under.
I locked the under on Ohio St/Wiscy. Think both sides will play more conservative given the circumstances - Ohio State protecting #1 seed and Wiscy avoiding a 2nd in conference loss.
BOL with your picks. 60% is pretty good stuff.
Don't be fooled. Vegas makes millions off of overreactions to one week. South Florida is better then they played and WVU isn't as good as they played. So Fla matches up very well with WVU. Thursday the weather is 62 high low 42. So let's call it 52 degrees, nothing to impact a ball game. When So Fla needs to play in the snow then you can raise a flag. I am capping the Wednesday night game some time tonight.
Every play I ever post in my thread is in and pending in one of my books. If anything is a lean it will be specified and not in bold.
Exactly!
I don't disagree with anything you said but does anything you said have to pertain to me? I am not often caught yelling about locks and betting your house.
Should be a great game and the under is a strong lean for me. I can see a 16-14 game.
I think Jim Tressell was just born playing conservative. Huge game for Wisky. Think they may take a few more chances then you guys are expecting.
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