[gshock1]

What do you think of Clemson -14? Appears to be one of the sharper plays of the weekend.

[jadenandashton]

I definetly wasn't talking to you about the "locks" you are one of only a few on here that actually "gets it" and are extremely good at analyzing your picks. I was addressing the person who posted before me about what was my lean or lock. Please keep all the good info coming.

[GiveMeaBJ]

What do you think of Clemson -14? Appears to be one of the sharper plays of the weekend.

Leaning MD here. Don't know if I will play because I think MD is miserable. But, Clemson isn't all that great either. The real thing here is this is a game that is ALWAYS close. This game hasn't been decided by 14 points since 2003. I would feel more comfortable betting Clemson because they do have the potential to win big but I think the value is on MD +15 to keep this one close. But MD will on fade watch the rest of the year. I am starting to think it may just be best to lay off this one for me.

Gl if you make a play.

[btd]

First time looking at your thread , will be keep following it and may tail a few picks, Thanx

[GiveMeaBJ]

I definetly wasn't talking to you about the "locks" you are one of only a few on here that actually "gets it" and are extremely good at analyzing your picks. I was addressing the person who posted before me about what was my lean or lock. Please keep all the good info coming.

Oh yea, I was confused. The post seemed out of place but I see it now. Definitely agree with everything you said and if you do indeed have the 18 years of experience then I hope you will be stopping in here and sharing some thoughts with everyone fairly often.

Good luck this week.

[GiveMeaBJ]

First time looking at your thread , will be keep following it and may tail a few picks, Thanx

Welcome and good luck.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Marshall +5.5 (1x)
Marshall looks like the play here fellas. Don't have time to write up now but maybe later tonight. Just pulled the trigger. I just saw this line, first time I glanced at it. It's not the pretty side, not the fun side, but hopefully it is the winning side.

[udlock4life]

tailing you on marshall

[the12thman]

thanks for the picks, BOL to you and to all

[dodgerblue]

Seriously, can we post more pics of BigCat's wife?

[NYSportsGuy210]

What about USC (-2.5) vs. Cal? USC played hard against Stanford last week and nearly pulled off a win.

[Donkwin47]

Texas A&M -3 (2x)
Had to jump on this number before it went off of 3. Opened at 1.5 and quickly bet up at Bookmaker too -3. Missouri is looking pretty overvalued at this point. Sure a 5-0 record looks great but they haven't been less then 12 point favorites all year. They have been winning comfortably against the likes of Illinois (who ran all over them), McNeese State, San Diego State (who they only beat by 3 and also ran all over them), Miami Ohio, and Colorado. A&M opened the year with their two cupcakes then beat Florida International by 7 which some will consider a bad game from them. But anyone who has read my thread knows I am sky high on FIU and I just consider them another victim of underestimating FIU's ability. They dropped two straight but how could you blame them? @ Oklahoma State and against Arkansas aren't games many teams are going to win. Missouri is going to have big problems with Jerrod Johnson, especially when he pulls it down to run. Missouri gave up 250 yards and 7.6 yards per carry to a San Diego State rushing attack that doesn't bother many people. Now they get a rushing attack with A&M averaging over 170 yards per game. More on this game later...

On mizzou, so don't like seeing you on A&M.. I'm 2-0 fading them with Oklahoma State and Arkansas and think Mizzou can stick around. Got it at +3.5 so hopefully it lands on 3 .

Iowa -3 -120 (3x)
Yea, I know, a big play against Michigan in the Big House. Not exactly the sharpest play I've ever made but I feel strong about it. Iowa had two weeks to prepare for this one which is big considering who they are going against. Denard Robinson has a ton of options on his plays and a ton of different looks which makes the two weeks to sit back and game plan all the more valuable. There was concern with what Robinson would do when playing against better Big 10 defenses. I think last week we saw. He averaged under 4 yards per carry and threw three interceptions. Let's face it, he is there whole team. They don't have a kicking game, they don't have a defense, and he is the leading rusher and passer. Now look at Iowa. They have one of the better defenses going and if Robinson keeps running into those big beefy defenders he is going to have a rough day. Iowa might be the most disciplined defense out there, the flashy offenses don't scare them much. The flashy Georgia Tech option only gained 155 total yards in the Orange Bowl in January. This flashy, speedy Michigan offense (mainly Robinson) should get shut down and Michigan can fall back to being Big Ten after thoughts.

Love it. My biggest play of the year. The bye week will be huge for the Hawkeyes, showed what they can do on defense with preparation in the Orange Bowl against GT and will do it again this week. Not to mention Michigan's TERRIBLE defense.. Denard could prolly go off for 200 rrushing and still lose. GO HAWKS!

[w@lt]

Marshall +5.5 (1x)
Marshall looks like the play here fellas. Don't have time to write up now but maybe later tonight. Just pulled the trigger. I just saw this line, first time I glanced at it. It's not the pretty side, not the fun side, but hopefully it is the winning side.

BJ- Not to doubt you or anything, you've had an awesome run thus far... but, just curious as to what the reasoning is behind this pick? These teams seem to be headed in different directions and on paper this seems like UCF could potentially blow Marshall out just like they did UAB last week. Thanks!

[GiveMeaBJ]

tailing you on marshall

Gl to us!

thanks for the picks, BOL to you and to all

Same to you.

What about USC (-2.5) vs. Cal? USC played hard against Stanford last week and nearly pulled off a win.

I can't decide what USC is yet and I have a feeling it is going to stay like that all year. They started the year saying let's just go undefeated and prove to everyone we are the best team even though we can't win anything. Now with 2 losses I think it's going to come down to how much they feel like playing. At this point when I watch USC I feel like they are out there trying to pad their stats rather then win games as a team. However the 2.5 caught my eye and I do lean towards USC, I just am not sure yet if this is a team I want to back this year.

On mizzou, so don't like seeing you on A&M.. I'm 2-0 fading them with Oklahoma State and Arkansas and think Mizzou can stick around. Got it at +3.5 so hopefully it lands on 3 .

Love it. My biggest play of the year. The bye week will be huge for the Hawkeyes, showed what they can do on defense with preparation in the Orange Bowl against GT and will do it again this week. Not to mention Michigan's TERRIBLE defense.. Denard could prolly go off for 200 rushing and still lose. GO HAWKS!

Yup, you got the better of me on A&M the past few weeks. Maybe I'll get one win but good luck. That Iowa play is a really nice one, it just looks to easy. As long as nothing stupid happens there is no reason this Hawkeyqe defense won't control this game from start to finish.

BJ- Not to doubt you or anything, you've had an awesome run thus far... but, just curious as to what the reasoning is behind this pick? These teams seem to be headed in different directions and on paper this seems like UCF could potentially blow Marshall out just like they did UAB last week. Thanks!

They definitely are headed in different directions. On paper UCF could definitely blow out Marshall. But unfortunately, these games are played on the field and not on paper. There are several factors that have nothing to do with what is going to happen on the field that seem to be going Marshalls way that I like. For starters this spread has dropped from -6.5 to -5 despite around 63% of money coming in on UCF. This indicates the smart money is on Marshall. UCF is coming off of a massacre of UAB last week that was on national TV which I like in my favor. Marshall played them very tough last year and had a 20-7 lead midway through the 4th and lost 21-20. Marshall is a tough play at home and I think the Marshall defense is really going to rise to the occasion. DE Vinny Curry leads the country in sacks, he is second in tackles for loss, and he has 50 tackles on the year. This offense seems to do better at home though too, UCF has a great pass defense but I think Marshall is going to move the ball better then expected. Look at the home games for Marshall, they have thrown for over 250 ypg, six touchdowns, and 0 picks at home. Marshall is 121-20 all time at home. UCF is having kicking problems which when getting 5 points can really help you. UCF struggles to throw at times. Marshall 23-20.

[rhymenocerous]

Someone mentioned UNC/UVA previously. I made a post on the board I think yesterday that I doubt anybody read, but it was to point out the fact that UNC hasn't won in Charlottesville since 1983 (or maybe 85). It's been well over 20 years and this is a Rivalry game that has been played every season since 1919. The game Saturday will be the 115th meeting.

I'm playing UVA +7 (bought it) for 2 units and UVA ML whenever it's released for 1 unit. (My units are straight % of BR). Just can't pass up a streak like this. There have been much better UNC teams facing worse UVA teams over this period and yet Virginia still has managed to keep the home domination of UNC alive.

I also like Miami to pound Duke and GT to really put up a number against MTSU. This is about the point in the season that their defense should be starting to really get Groh's 3-4 scheme, too. At least that's the way it always seemed to work when he was at UVA. Took about half a season for his defenses to get into a groove. NCSU should roll over ECU, imo...even though that's another rivalry game. NCSU is just too much offense and a decent enough defense. I think they cover a TD in a shootout. They'll pull away in the 2nd half.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Someone mentioned UNC/UVA previously. I made a post on the board I think yesterday that I doubt anybody read, but it was to point out the fact that UNC hasn't won in Charlottesville since 1983 (or maybe 85). It's been well over 20 years and this is a Rivalry game that has been played every season since 1919. The game Saturday will be the 115th meeting.

I'm playing UVA +7 (bought it) for 2 units and UVA ML whenever it's released for 1 unit. (My units are straight % of BR). Just can't pass up a streak like this. There have been much better UNC teams facing worse UVA teams over this period and yet Virginia still has managed to keep the home domination of UNC alive.

I also like Miami to pound Duke and GT to really put up a number against MTSU. This is about the point in the season that their defense should be starting to really get Groh's 3-4 scheme, too. At least that's the way it always seemed to work when he was at UVA. Took about half a season for his defenses to get into a groove. NCSU should roll over ECU, imo...even though that's another rivalry game. NCSU is just too much offense and a decent enough defense. I think they cover a TD in a shootout. They'll pull away in the 2nd half.

I read that post you made yesterday. Forget where I saw it but found it interesting. I am actually about to dive into the ACC card right now. Hopefully we can end up on the same sides.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Boston College +22.5 (1x)
Rare to see this match up with a number this high. This game hasn't had a spread over a touchdown since Boston College moved to the ACC. I see conflicting reports on who will be under center for Boston College. I see some saying Chase Rettig may be back, some say he is still out and it will be either David Shinksie or Mike Mascovetra. I think Shinkskie has played himself out of the conversation though because he has looked lost the last two weeks. As long as he isn't under center I like this play. Mascovetra played against my brother in high school in 2008 and the kid has a fantastic arm so even if he goes I feel confident he can make some plays to keep this one tight. The strange thing about this line though is they have played each other 5 times in the past 5 years and Boston College is 3-2 against FSU and the games are only being separated by 1-2 scores. The biggest deficit was an 11 point FSU win back in 2005. Last week when they lost to NC state 44-17 it was only the second time in 61 games they lost by 22 or more. I think this defense is strong enough to keep this one close.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Virginia +7 -120 (3x)
Virginia u48 (2x)

As we went over Virginia hasn't lost this match up at home in over 20 years. The thing is these games are traditionally brutal, close, low scoring wars between rivals, it's funny though it get's no publicity. Virginia is 9-1 ATS since 2000 in this match up. The game hasn't gone over since 2004. Since that game in 2004 both teams combined are averaging just 25 points per game. Both defenses have shown capability this year so far. UNC gave up 60 points the first two games against LSU and Georgia Tech but in three games since they have all owed just 46 points. The Virginia defense was pretty good against USC on the road, in fact much better then I expected. They made plays when they needed to and got it done. North Carolina is a team I love to back and made me good money with two big plays against Rutgers and Clemson but the thing is they only won those games by 9 points combined. They just can't score right now and they aren't as good as me and a lot of others thought they would be before and after the suspensions. They haven't showed the explosiveness on offense that we used to see from UNC. This is a defensive team and I think Virginia has a great shot to pull the upset. UNC does give up a good amount of room on the ground and Virginia has been gashed on the ground this year. However, UNC doesn't have the running game to take advantage.

[og4667]

nice writeups, good information. I am on Marshall tonight also, they are a completely different team at home than on the road. They have also played a tougher schedule, and when UCF went to Buffalo they were outgained but costly interceptions by Buffalo gave UCF the win. Anderson at home is completing 70% of his passes at home compared to just 50% on the road and he has 2 200 yard passing games at home also. Throw in the revenge factor from last year, the homefield advantage, the public perception that UCF is vastly superior and Marshall looks like a good play.

[Uncle Harv]

Totally agree with A & M and Iowa. Nice picks. What do you think of the very strange line movement in the Oregon St/Wash game...here was my take on it yesterday...

"this could be another very strange situation just like Arizona/Iowa earlier this year. Iowa was favored by 3 all week and the public was 70% Iowa on this forum. But on Sat, the line swung to Zona -3 due to heavy sharp action on the Wildcats. Even ESPN was talking about how the "pros" thought Zona would win. And Zona won and covered. This Wash/Oregon St line started at -2.5 for Oregon St on 5 Dimes, went to -3, then dropped all the way to +1!! This despite the public consensus heavy on State! I love the Beavs here on paper, but something is weird here. Im gonna wait to see what happens to the line as the week goes on."

But now Im thinking, OSU hasnt started the season 3-0 in the Pac 10 since 1968, and w/o James Rodgers, it sure seems like Wash is the play...what do you think?

[kevinslack1016]

As much as I like RLM I think Marshall is the sucker bet. Let's be honest, the only reason we're not unloading on UCF is Marshall's fluke performance against an overrated WV team

[Shifty107]

Love the Marshall Pick BJ. Squares are going to get murdered tonight.

[tbond10]

Like the Iowa bet... which is scary because just at a quick glance it seems the majority of the board is on Iowa (never a good sign). On the opposite side of the Marshall game. While clearly the public is all over UCF, I believe this is the right side.

Good Luck with the rest of your picks!

[Holdin Aces]

As much as I like RLM I think Marshall is the sucker bet. Let's be honest, the only reason we're not unloading on UCF is Marshall's fluke performance against an overrated WV team

Love your Avatar.

[rhymenocerous]

Virginia +7 -120 (3x)
Virginia u48 (2x)

Might tail you on that under. Looks solid.

Another thing that makes me love UVa this week is that it's a night game. I've mentioned before that Scott Stadium for day games is a pretty weak venue, especially for a 60,000 seat stadium. Night games on the other hand, with a full afternoon of tailgating, are a different story. That place can be downright electirc under the right circumstances and you better believe they'll be pumped for UNC and to keep that streak alive.

Night game against UNC = stong homefield advantage.

[rhino1153]

I have to admit - I am very impressed with your NCAAF record. Keep it up!

[NYSportsGuy210]

I'm gonna go with Iowa and USC at (-3) and (-2.5) respectively to cover.

[KJ90]

BJ kst -3 a trap?

[chimp]

marshall

[GiveMeaBJ]

Like the Iowa bet... which is scary because just at a quick glance it seems the majority of the board is on Iowa (never a good sign). On the opposite side of the Marshall game. While clearly the public is all over UCF, I believe this is the right side.

Good Luck with the rest of your picks!

Yea never a fan of everyone agreeing with my plays. I feel like the same thing happened back when I backed Iowa against Arizona. Here is the thing though, Michigan is so one dimensional and has such a horrid defense I can't see them actually earning the victory in this one. Good luck.

Might tail you on that under. Looks solid.

Another thing that makes me love UVa this week is that it's a night game. I've mentioned before that Scott Stadium for day games is a pretty weak venue, especially for a 60,000 seat stadium. Night games on the other hand, with a full afternoon of tailgating, are a different story. That place can be downright electirc under the right circumstances and you better believe they'll be pumped for UNC and to keep that streak alive.

Night game against UNC = stong homefield advantage.

Good info Let's get this money.

I have to admit - I am very impressed with your NCAAF record. Keep it up!

Thanks guy, gl this weekend.

I'm gonna go with Iowa and USC at (-3) and (-2.5) respectively to cover.

Looks solid. Best of luck.

BJ kst -3 a trap?

I don't think it is necessarily a "trap". More action will be on K St though for sure and the books probably knew that but to me that line looks right. I don't know why all that money is coming in on KSU, Kansas isn't going to roll over. I am not playing this game but I do have a small lean to Kansas. Just a note: the home team has won 6 in a row.

marshall

Very disappointing. A few early miscues cost us. We had a lot of momentum and then the lightning delay. Just a real bad game to watch.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Totally agree with A & M and Iowa. Nice picks. What do you think of the very strange line movement in the Oregon St/Wash game...here was my take on it yesterday...

"this could be another very strange situation just like Arizona/Iowa earlier this year. Iowa was favored by 3 all week and the public was 70% Iowa on this forum. But on Sat, the line swung to Zona -3 due to heavy sharp action on the Wildcats. Even ESPN was talking about how the "pros" thought Zona would win. And Zona won and covered. This Wash/Oregon St line started at -2.5 for Oregon St on 5 Dimes, went to -3, then dropped all the way to +1!! This despite the public consensus heavy on State! I love the Beavs here on paper, but something is weird here. Im gonna wait to see what happens to the line as the week goes on."

But now Im thinking, OSU hasnt started the season 3-0 in the Pac 10 since 1968, and w/o James Rodgers, it sure seems like Wash is the play...what do you think?

I think OSU is a bit overrated. I learned that the past few weeks. Washington is still a tough place to walk out with a win. Someone has been hitting Wash hard and that is where I have a very strong lean.

[JVP3122]

I think OSU is a bit overrated. I learned that the past few weeks. Washington is still a tough place to walk out with a win. Someone has been hitting Wash hard and that is where I have a very strong lean.

Huh. Would it seem, based on sbrodds, that the 'smart money' is coming in on Washington? I know you just wrote this, which made me look at the percentages, and it seems that with a vast majority of money coming in on OSU, the line still kept on moving in Washington's favor. I guess this is one of those examples of smart money creating RLM, right?

[jadenandashton]

Getting fired up for another great night of football. Sorry about last night. One big with UCF stayed away from the under which is where I was leaning. I have been looking at this Ksu game all morning and last night and I really dont see how you cant go with them right now. Great rushing game into a weak rushing defense. I know your big on south florida but with the 70 percent chance of rain tonight in Morgantown I am leaning towards the under at 43.5. Not too mention the weather but both of these teams have stellar defenses and we have already talked about how bad the offense looked last weekend in the USF vs Syracuse game. Unfortunately for USF they dont get a warm up game before going into the number 7 overall defense in the entire country. KSU and the under in the WVU game seem to be the strongest pick for me right now.

[jwbama23]

BJ, you think Oregon State is overrated? Ive been saying I thought they were underrated. They had a chance to beat TCU, never fell far behind Boise State and went on the road to knock of Arizona. I think losing Rogers hurts them quite a bit but I think Mike Reilly has this team playing good football. Thats my opinion anyways. I hit them on the ML last week for a nice payout. Not trying to talk you out of your play by any means but it just seems like Washington has been the overrated team and I think this Oregon State team could knock them off quite easily possibly.

BOL in what you play just was curious as to why you view them as over rated.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Texas Tech -3 -115 (1x)
It's always interesting when a top 25 ranked team is a dog. We all know who the public will be one, but what is even more interesting is the line movement in this game. They opened Oklahoma State -1.5 and this has been bet all the way to Texas Tech -3.5. So why does smart money like Texas Tech and do we agree? Well, to me it looks like one of the more obvious things is that OSU hasn't found a way to beat Tech on the road in a long time. They haven't won @ Texas Tech since 1944. OSU also could be without three of there receivers Saturday due to the injury bug. OSU is still a very young team and I still don't think they are going to respond well on the road. It's one thing to win at UL Lafayette and another to win in Texas Tech. There are two things that are going to kill OSU in this match up. #1 is their awful defense. They are giving up over 32 points per game in the last four games something Texas Tech won't hesitate to take advantage of. The other problem is turnovers, the Cowboys have turned it over 11 times in the last four games against some bad competition. Brandon Weeden has been great and the 18 touchdowns he has thrown for OSU is a really eye-popping number but he has thrown six interceptions. Against an offense like this you can't afford to turn it over and I think that the inability to get a stop on defense and the occasional turnover will doom OSU.