Well, to be blunt, I was hoping for a better start to the 2010 season with my college totals plays. I did manage to go 4-3 but one of the losses was a double play on the Michigan game to go over. That loss brings the record to 4-4. The good news for me is that I went 6-1 on my sides, topped off by that nice Boise State victory last night. Anyway, I'm up on the house and plan to keep it that way. Gonna start off this week's card with a Thursday night game. Be back later with the rest of the plays.
MISSISSIPPI STATE/AUBURN - OVER 54
A funny thing happened to Auburn football last season; they changed from being a stodgy offense to one that can light up a scoreboard. Since the beginning of last year they've gone over the total 8 times and stayed under just 4. Things don't look to be any different this year. Last week they put up close to 700 yds of offense against Arkansas State, averaging 7.5 yards on the ground. The Bulldogs will no doubt be a stiffer test this week but the Tigers will move the ball and put up some points. What was alarming about last week's Arkansas St. game is that Auburn was very generous against the pass, giving up 323 yds. That's bad news against a Mississippi State team that passed the ball beautifully last week (80% completions) in putting up 49 points against Memphis. This figures to be a tough game but I see each team scoring into the 30s. A Thursday night OVER. Bet it early, this line might go up.
That's a lot of points, I know. But the boys in Vegas posted a high number because this is gonna be a shootout. Houston QB Case Keenum is the most prolific gunslinger in all the land, having already tossed 107 TDs in his career. This week he'll be facing the 111th rated pass defense.....in a revenge spot....under the lights.....in a marquee opportunity for him to kickstart his Heisman campaign. Houston should put up 50 points of their own. Their anemic defense will do the rest of the work for us. Last year, UTEP rb Buckram galloped for 268 yds against this rush D. I don't see him duplicating those numbers but he will do some damage. Easily into the 80s.
IOWA/IOWA STATE - UNDER 45
The Cyclones scored only 3 points against Iowa last year, and 5 the year previous. In fact they haven't scored a TD against the Hawkeyes in over 3 years. This year's Iowa D looks to be about as good as anyone's. My numbers indicate that Iowa controls the clock for much of the day and comes away with another low-scoring victory. Say 24-10.
UTAH/UNLV - OVER 54
Great win last week for the Utes. Gotta see them taking advantage of their momentum and putting a hurting on UNLV. The Rebs D was very generous last week, allowing nearly 300 yds on the ground (5.6 ypc!) against Wisconsin. Now they're asked to play at altitude against a Utah team with a few good RBs of their own. Utah should score into the 40s and the Rebs will be forced to get aggressive in a futile attempt to catch up. Points galore.
BAYLOR/BUFFALO - UNDER 49-
Not gonna put too much stock into Buffalo's victory over URI last week, but it is worth noting that they did pitch a shutout. There will be no goose egg this week against Baylor. Bears QB Griffin is as explosive as they come. Buffalo's only hope in this game is to design an offensive scheme that keeps Griffin off the field. Designing it and executing it, of course, are different things. Nonetheless, I see this one as being relatively low scoring.
(Double Play) UCLA/STANFORD - OVER 52 (Double Play)
Week #2 in Norm Chow's experiment known as the "pistol offense". A bigger concern for the Bruins is the 313 yds (5.8 ypc) they gave up on the ground against Kansas St. last week. That spells trouble this week when they go up against the huge offensive line and power rushing game of Stanford. The Cardinal should be able to run roughshod over this inexperienced front seven. And if the Bruins try to stuff the box, talented QB Luck will make them pay. Stanford's weakness is in their secondary. Look for Bruin's QB Prince to take some target practice here. Over.
Did anyone notice that the clock operator would run an extra 2-3 seconds off after every play! one time the ref was calling the penalty and the clock suddenly ran off 5 seconds and then stopped again. It was unbelievable. I don't know how the over was able to hit.
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Harry's week #2 "total package"
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