Finally, football begins. It feels like just yesterday the season ended and I really like some of these Week 1 matchups. There should be some great games to watch and wager on to break us into the 2010 football season. Anyway, here is what I like and why:
Minnesota -3 to win 1 Unit
As bad as Minnesota was last year and as bad as they may be this year I just don't see how giving a FG to a Sun Belt team doesn't give me some value. MTST is a fun team and all but they are going to be extremley undersized against a huge Minnesota offensive line. Reports are that the Gophers are going back to basics and pounding the rock after last years running game ranked 111th in the country. They may struggle doing that against Big Ten defenses but MTST has been killed by the run against BCS conference opponents over the years. In 2009 against BCS opponents MTST gave up an average of 180 rushing yards over three games against Clemson, Maryland, and Mississippi State.In 2008 they faced 4 BCS opponents and allowed an average of 169 yards per game. I really think the Gophers will be able to do whatever they want against them and as long as they limit turnovers they should cruise to a win.
Utah -3 to win 2 Units
This is simply a situation play for me. Just browse over the board, all you see is "How is Utah favored here? Have the books lost their mind?". Well if this was a mistake, given the line came out a long time ago it would have been corrected by now by the sharps. It is clear that all the public money will flow in on Pitt. Yes, Dion Lewis is great and the Pitt D is great with pressure but every year it seems the season opens with a game just like this. Everyone is high on one team and they just can't imagine them starting 0-1 so they have to win right? Well Utah and Pitt seem to be very evenly matched in my opinion. That Pitt D sure could create pressure but this Utah O-Line is a very good and experienced group. Not to mention they don't lose at home. They always show up againts BCS conference teams too. They are 7-1 in their last eight with the lone loss coming against a good Oregon team in front of a rough Oregon home crowd. At home in those games they are 3-0. Utah wins this one by double digits.
USC 1st Half -13 to win 1 Unit
USC will make a statement here. The program has been crucified and I think much like the 2007 New England Patriots we see them go into an "eff-you" mode where they blow teams out, run up scores, and just beat the shit out of teams that are not on their level. They certainly have the talent to do so and I will take 1 unit down that USC will be able to start off the year with a bang.
South Carolina/So Miss Under 46 to win 2 Units
Every year it seems South Carolina kicks off the season on Thursday under the ESPN lights and every season it seems like South Carolina tries to get off to the same type of start. They like to play slow in the opener relying on their strong SEC defense and a grind it out offense. Over the past 7 seasons the under is 7-0 in So Carolinas openers, as well as 10-1 over the last 11 seasons. Put an SEC defense against an overrated So Miss offense and I think we have the makings of a game that stays under.
Ohio State -28 to win 1 Unit
Marshall is bad, Ohio State is good, Ohio State wants to make a statement. Lot's of people I talked to feel the line is too high for a team like Ohio State to cover but I just don't see Marshall moving the ball at all. I think we see Pryor with a lot of short fields to work with and a 49-7 kind of game.
Toledo +17 to win 1 Unit
This line provides great value now. Opened at about 12.5 when I first saw it now all the way up to 16.5-17 at most shops. 17 is good enough for me against a bad road team in Arizona. Toledo's offense should be good enough to keep them within 3 scores.
Saturday Colorado -12 to win 2 Units Florida -35 (-120) to win 1 Unit Purdue +11 to win 1 Unit Michigan -3 to win 1 Unit Oregon/New Mexico Over 55 to win 1 Unit BYU -2 to win 1 Unit Oklahoma State -16 to win 1 Unit Oregon State +14 (-115) to win 1 Unit LSU -4 to win 2 Units Wisconsin/UNLV Under 57.5 to win 1 Unit Cincinatti +3 (-120) to win 1 Unit
Ohio State 2nd half line is too high for my liking. Was looking to add on, Marshall hasn't moved the ball and scored on a blocked FG. But -10 is too high for the 2nd half of a game I am already covering at half. If I didn't have OSU I would be on it but going to lay off.
Minny now starting to worry me. They are dominating the line of scrimmage on offense but two quick scores and two missed field goals has swung the momentum. I am going to ride this bet out and hope for the best but I do have a big lean to the under 27.
Thursday in Review
Ohio State -28 (Win) +1.00 Units
Minnesota -3 (Win) +1.00 Units
So Car/So Miss u46 (Loss) -2.20 Units
Utah -3 (Push) +0.00 Units
USC 1Q -4.5 (Win) +1.00 Units
USC 1h -13 (Loss) -1.20 Units
Being that I have a package with my guy he gives me the right to cancel bets before kick. Here is my revised card: Saturday
Colorado -11 to win 1 Unit
Florida 1Q -7.5 (-125) to win 1 Unit
Texas 1Q -7 (-115) to win 1 Unit
Texas 1H -17 to win 1 Unit
Purdue +11 to win 1 Unit
Michigan -3 to win 1 Unit
Oregon/New Mexico o55 to win 1 Unit
BYU -2 to win 1 Unit
Kansas St -2 to win 1 Unit
Oklahoma State -16 to win 1 Unit
Vandy +3.5 to win 1 unit
Oregon State +14 (-115) to win 1 Unit
LSU -4 to win 2 Units
Wisconsin/UNLV Under 57.5 to win 1 Unit
Cincinatti +3 (-120) to win 1 Unit
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Blowjob Plays For Week 1
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