These are my predictions for 2010. I'm leaving out the spread notes that I used in my other previews because for forum purposes it seemed to clutter up the analysis. No major surprises here, but that doesn't mean the race won't be exciting.
2010 BIG 10
1. OHIO STATE
For the 7th time in the past 8 seasons Ohio St. won 10 or more games. ’09 was special because they wanted to return to the Rose Bowl, where they amazingly had not been since ’96! Not only did they get there, but they won it, beating Oregon with a precision-like offense. With that goal accomplished the Buckeyes once again set their sights on an even bigger prize, the BCS title. AREAS TO WATCH: For once the NFL did not select players from Ohio St. in the early rounds. The defense has some DL starters to replace but the offense was hardly touched. Our biggest watch areas will be QB% and the overall turnover ratio. We’ll look to see if Pryor can hit 60% (we project lower). Ohio St. has had a pair of fantastic DD turnover ratio +’s and they hope to get close to that # once again. The Buckeyes remain great when placed in the role of a rush pick (21-9 ATS). ACE STRATEGY: Poor as usual, going 2-3. We’re now 44% the past 6 years. As usual Ohio St. schedules mostly soft non-conference games. Miami Fla. Visits on 9/11 so that will be a good one. The only other projected tough matchup in weeks 1-9 is at Wisky. Wisky outplayed this team in ’09, holding them to 184 yards, but the Buckeyes used a return TD and a pair of TD’s off interceptions to win. A nicely placed bye occurs before game #10, hosting Penn St. Ohio St. travels to Iowa next before closing ’10 with Michigan. BOTTOM LINE: We’re thinking 11-1. This means they would be 3-1 hosting Miami, at Wisky, hosting Penn St. and at Iowa. This team is better than the ’09 team that narrowly lost to USC (too conservative) and was upset by Purdue. They should be playing in a BCS Bowl, and will be in the BCS title game conversation.
2. IOWA
No team was as lucky as Iowa was during the 1st 9 games of the regular season. The survived by blocking 2 kicks vs. Northern Iowa, got a blown call vs. Arkansas St., a big interception to stop a game winning Michigan drive, and watched as Michigan State literally gave Iowa a 2 point win. Iowa actually trailed in every game in ’09. Iowa could have easily been 6-6 or 7-5 in ’09. The ’10 team is actually better than last years team but amazingly may not achieve the same record or luck this time around. AREAS TO WATCH: We were right about the run D being a bit soft (by Iowa’s standards) in ’09. Plenty of experience returns up front. 3 decent RB’s are here so the unusually poor 3.4/117 run O is expected to hit 4.0 now. The other issue on offense is QB interceptions. That number needs to drop. ACE STRATEGY: We are 26-13 lately including a 6-0 mark in recent bowl games. The early part of the schedule includes games at Arizona and hosting Penn St. With the bye week nicely placed between this game and a road trip to Michigan, Iowa can be fresh and ready to go here, perhaps at 4-1 SU. Wisconsin is next, and the Badgers will have just played Ohio St. in a revenge game. Games vs. Michigan St. are often close, but usually Iowa makes fewer mistakes and wins. The dog is 63+% in Iowa road games so the Hawkeyes have to be careful as a RF traveling to Indiana and Northwestern. If all goes well, the home game vs. Ohio St. will be for the Big 10 title. Win or lose (especially if they lose), the finale at Minny could be a letdown game. BOTTOM LINE: We’d be surprised if the run O did not improve, but that’s a key component if Iowa is to challenge for the title considering how well they do when a rush pick (26-10 ATS). We think they will be at least 8-2 SU to Ohio St. A loss here could be followed by another loss at Minny with that game rendered meaningless. A win would be huge. Iowa may not be as lucky as in ’09 but still has a decent shot to win 9 or 10 games.
3. PENN STATE
PSU wins like clockwork when the run D excels. The 5 year average is 3.1/108 and PSU 51-13 during that span. With massive LB losses, a #1 NFL DE draftee gone and a new QB on offense, will we see slippage in some key statistical areas? AREAS TO WATCH: We project the run D to be 3.45. That would be good enough to keep win totals strong, but we’re a bit scared that the ’10 # might not be that good, so it will as usual be a huge week to week measuring stick. We’ll also check the point D for any signs of slippage. Two way rush data has been 53-28 ATS the past 12 seasons. Can that continue? The strongest area on the team is RB. ACE STRATEGY: We were 2-5 in ’06-07, but 17-8 overall from ’03-09 counting 2-1 last year. This does not count our Bowl Best Bet win last year. Games 1-6 feature a tough game at Alabama and a tough game at Iowa (0-3 SU last 3 at). PSU will have revenge in that one, so if they can pull the “upset” they’ll take a 5-1 SU record into the bye week. They’ve had some trouble at Minny but with the bye PSU should win SU. They’ve had a very tough time beating Michigan but crushed them in ’08. Can that continue? They’ve barely scored at Ohio St. (7+ point average in 8 games). They catch a break by NOT going to Indiana after that game (5-12 ATS after playing Ohio St.), since the game was moved to Maryland. No, we’re not sure why! They’re a perfect 8-0 SU hosting Michigan St. BOTTOM LINE: This team is NOT as good as recent PSU editions yet still could win 10 games if the run D holds up. They have an almost guaranteed 8 wins, but could lose 3 of 4 in the other 4 to finish 9-3. Given the graduation losses that’s not a bad record.
4. WISCONSIN
Wisconsin had its best run D (3.3/102) in the Bielema era and that propelled the Badgers to a 9-3 record, plus a bowl win in the state of Florida. The loss to NW was legit; however Wisky was unlucky vs. Ohio St. With 10 returning starters on an improving offense all signs point to making a run at the roses. AREAS TO WATCH: Last year they had to replace 3 DL and lost some top tacklers yet the run and point D improved. 3 DL are gone yet again. We’re projecting a major rise in the run D at 4.05. The conference point D was 25 and ’09 was a good year. That worries us. We are projecting a 5.05 run O so it’s really only the 2 defensive concerns that are on our watch list. ACE STRATEGY: After years of 80+% we were 4-6 the 1st 2 years under new coach Bielema until achieving a 4-1-2 mark in ’08. We went 2-2 (plus a bowl win) in ’09. Wisky faces new coaches games 1-2, and a suspect road team game 3 in ASU. They will be 4-0 heading to Michigan St. on 10/2. This game could go either way (dog preferred) but is huge if Wisky wants to make a Rose Bowl run. In each of the last 3 years their initial conference loss has been followed by another conference loss. That must stop! Can they beat conference favorite Ohio St.? Both teams have no trap games prior to the meeting. Wisky is 5-7-1 SU (all as a dog), and have lost the last 3 by a total of 11 points. We’ve often seen Ohio St. win these types of games, even when being outplayed. History tells us that they lose to Iowa if they lost vs. Ohio St. What happens if they are off a SU win? The Purdue game is tricky but at least Wisky will be off the prior week. The game at Michigan won’t be easy if Wisky’s run D is worse than advertised. BOTTOM LINE: 9-3, and another just miss? They may split the 4 Big 10 road games and lose close to Ohio St. Wisky is better than ’09 but still needs the run D to stay stout and the point D to come down. If that happens 10-2 is possible.
5. MICHIGAN
Here’s an interesting question for all the Michigan fans: Are you rooting for the Wolverines to have a bounce back season in ’10? As a guess the response will be split, as with another losing season Rich Rodriguez would be out of a job, pleasing many people. Rich is 8-16 thus far, and that doesn’t cut it in Ann Arbor. AREAS TO WATCH: The run-pass %. Everyone wants more passing these days, but Rich’s teams ran all over people at West Virginia. In our mind, less passing could lead to more winning for this program. Greg Robinson. NEVER a favorite of ours, his defense produced shocking (for Michigan) run D #’s of 4.5/177.5, and the pass D% rose above 60! 10.5 of an already low 22 defensive sacks were produced by NFL bound Brandon Graham. After producing a -12 turnover ratio in ’09, the 2 year mark is -22. Both the PK and Punter are gone. Would you EVER believe that a Michigan team would have a -7:10 time of possession #? ACE STRATEGY: Except for ’06 we’ve had some very nice ATS seasons here. Last year we slumped to 2-3. Games 1-2 are not easy but critical for morale purposes. A split of Conn/at ND could get them to 4-1 SU hosting Michigan St. We would expect at least a split of this and the host of Iowa. This means Michigan could be exactly where they were last year, at 5-2 heading into the game vs. Penn St. They did not win again in ’09, but should beat Illinois at home and hope to win at Purdue the following week. Past Wisconsin home games have been close, but usually SU wins. In these 2 games Purdue and Wisconsin must prove they can stop the Michigan run attack. Conversely, Greg Robinson must prove he can stop 2 above average offenses. The season ends at Ohio St. BOTTOM LINE: It’s no longer acceptable for this team to lose at home to Michigan St. In the opener, it is also not acceptable to lose at home to Conn even though the Huskies are good. Even if they lose to Iowa, Penn St. and Ohio St. a split of at Purdue/Wisconsin would and should mean 7-5. We expect the turnover ratio to be better (very good when Rich was at West Virginia) so close losses could turn into close wins, assuming a decent kicking game. Only Greg Robinson, and NOT Rich Rod will hold them back!
6T. MICHIGAN STATE
Just when we thought Michigan St. was turning the corner the Spartans came up with another ho-hum 6-6 season. While Michigan will always be the state’s headliner the Spartan’s can certainly learn from schools like TT and others who consistently have put together winning seasons and occasionally crack the top 10-15. Can we expect the same here? AREAS TO WATCH: We felt the ’08 4.5 run D was too high. The 3.45/117 ’09 mark was great. Can that continue even with a new nose tackle? The pass D% jumped to a regular season 60% in ’09. We’re projecting 55.5% now. There is room for the -6 turnover ratio to improve. The biggest ’10 key may be kicking, with a star PK (19-22) gone. ACE STRATEGY: We are now 10-4 the past 3 years after some lean years (used to be 85%). The schedule starts out fairly easy, enabling us to get some data on the kicking game. As of this writing we are not sure who may be suspended as a carry over from the end of ’09 and for how long. Michigan St. is 1-3 SU lately hosting ND, but this is a key game for the Spartans and they will be pointing toward it after losing by 3 late in the ’09 game. Lucky for them Northern Colorado is next on the schedule. 4 of the next 5 games are highly interesting. It starts with hosting Wisky (decent history) and at Michigan. It concludes at Northwestern (7-3 SU at last 10) and at Iowa (SU not that great). Splitting these 4 is a nice goal, along with going 3-0 at home vs. Illinois, Minny and Purdue. The finale at Penn St. is a rough one. BOTTOM LINE: This is not Michigan State’s deepest team or its best, but if the PK comes through there is enough talent and coaching here to make some noise. They should achieve 5-2 prior to the Northwestern/Iowa road games, meaning 8-4 is possible. Conservatively, their track record suggests that 7-5 is also in play.
6T. PURDUE
Purdue upset Ohio St. in ’09 but overall the team just wasn’t good enough to get to a bowl game. The pass D% was actually good, but a 4.45 run D and a 29 point D did them in. Games were close, such as the 2 point loss to Oregon, the last minute 3 point loss to ND, the 6 point loss to NW after leading 21-3, and the split vs. the Michigan schools in 2 and 3 point decisions. Purdue’s goal is to win the close games in ’10, but they’ll need help for the defense this time with the Boilermakers breaking in an all new backfield. AREAS TO WATCH: We’ve lowered the run O to 3.65 (4.3 in ’09). It looks like Miami Fla. Transfer Marve will be the QB. He was highly touted but raw in his one year there. We’ll chart his performance early and often in ’10. The front 7 on D has experience and should play better vs. the run but the secondary will be brand new! ACE STRATERY: The previous 3 years have seen 3-0, then 0-3, then 3-0. We asked if we should “skip ’09”. We went 1-2. Oregon is off the schedule so after opening at ND, Purdue has a chance to win 5 in a row playing 3 mostly awful non-conference teams and then having a bye to games at NW and home to Minny. They’ll probably be around 4-2 SU, and 4-3 before playing a highly interesting last 5 games. These games read at Illinois (50% shot), Wisky (just under 50% SU, but Wisky off a bye), Michigan (close, and a dog series), at Michigan St. (3-5 SU at, good situation this year for Michigan St.) and home to Indiana (won last 6 SU). BOTTOM LINE: Go 2-3 in the final 5 and they make a bowl game. That would be a great step for this fairly young team that figures to improve NEXT YEAR! The host of Michigan 11/13 may be the one they need to get that bowl berth. This schedule makes a bowl berth a realistic goal, provided Purdue’s youth does not get in the way.
8T. ILLINOIS
In ’08 Ron Zook was up to his old tricks as the Illini lost 4 times SU as a favorite to finish 5-7. The Zookster outdid himself last year as the Illini went a “perfect” 0-4 SU when favored. He’s back yet again, hopefully with reduced expectations. AREAS TO WATCH: The team has a new OC and DC as Zook tries to right the ship. The pass O% is too low, but the projected new QB has never taken a snap in college ball. LB talent is present but needs to be harnessed into on field performance. Can the point D improve? ACE STRATEGY: We’re 6-2-1 the past 3 seasons. Last year we said the following: The Illinois season comes down to 1 game for us, and that is opening day vs. Missouri. This HAS to be a win with the Tigers rebuilding and without the D to hold Juice Williams down. Can the run D be there? Illinois got blitzed as a 7 point favorite 37-9 and the rest was history. This years schedule is in 3 parts. Part 1 features home games vs. Southern and Northern Illinois. A Big 10 team needs to win these by double digits. Part 2 of the ’10 season features games hosting Ohio St and at Penn State and Michigan State. If they can’t pull an upset here the Illinois will be 2-4 SU heading into the last half of the year. They’ve won often hosting Indiana but have lost the last 2 hosting Purdue. The alumni won’t be happy with a split. Michigan seeks revenge, but expectations are that the Illini can beat Minny at home. Then again, losing 8 times as a favorite the last 2 years doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. The Northwestern game is at a neutral site, with the finale at Fresno a full 13 days later. BOTTOM LINE: 5-7, with higher possible if we’re wrong about the point and run D, but lower possible if turnovers become an issue and the home field turns into home apathy. 5-7 will mean a new coach will be in place when we next write about the Illini.
8T. NORTHWESTERN
NW finished in a tie for 4th and we cashed seasonal overs (M Casino), but those who read this report last year understood that we actually expected bigger things! No schedule was as “perfect” as this one in ’09 which was laced with 11 favorable scenarios! Despite our “disappointment”, NW feels good about things with the exception of flat out blowing their last 2 bowl games. Their goal remains the same, to win their 1st bowl game since 1948. AREAS TO WATCH: Dan Persa may be the new QB. The pass % will drop but perhaps he can jump start a run O that was just 3.2/124 in ’09. The secondary looks weaker. NW needs to play better when favored. They are 4-12 ATS their last 16 as a favorite, and 1-9 ATS when favored off a SU win. Under Fitzgerald they have had problems ATS at home as well (11-21 HF). ACE STRATEGY: Despite our strong endorsement of NW in ’09 we were hesitant to back them as a favorite. As a result we were just 1-0 in ’09 which was fine (5-3 last 3 seasons). This season can be divided into 2 parts. Part 1 is easy, as even bowlers CM and Minny are weaker in ’10. NW will be favored in almost all of these games. A bye precedes part 2 of the schedule. 4 bowl teams dot this slate, along with a road trip to Indiana (bit – SU) and a neutral game vs. Illinois. They may only be favored once in these games. So the question becomes, can NW pile up early wins and then fresh off a bye keep the momentum going? BOTTOM LINE: The staff is stable enough to predict bowl eligibility but the backfield must play better and NW needs to play better as a favorite. A 2-0 start is essential! They have a legit 5-2 SU opportunity, with 7 wins in play but we think they will regress a bit instead, maybe even struggling to hit 6-6? It’s up to the offense.
10T. MINNESOTA
Minnesota fired Glen Mason after his team had a bowl meltdown in the ’06 Insight Bowl. Tim Brewster had a rough 1st year but is 13-13 SU the past 2 years. Amazingly, Tim has taken his team to that same Insight Bowl both times, going 0-2. Minnesota seems to be treading water, which translates to losing ground in the Big 10. AREAS TO WATCH: Plenty! The offense returns 9 starters but really has no identity. Under Mason they were a run 1st team, and did that very well behind several future NFL contributors. QB Weber is now a SR. but he’s worked in a variety of offenses. His pass % dipped markedly in ’09. The defense is the major question for ’10. 2 starters return, and just 1 SR. Injuries and even a suspension or 2 may impact the secondary. It would certainly help things if Minny found a feature RB to run behind their veteran OL and keep their D off the field. ACE STRATEGY: We rebounded to go 5-2 in ’09 after going 2-4 here (all vs.) in ’08. The team will not face as many run types as in ’09 but we still project all defensive #’s to be worse. They may lose the opener at MTSU but certainly can not afford to lose at home to No. Illinois, who will be in the midst of a 3 game road trip. Conference play starts vs. Northwestern and they have not always held serve at home in this series. Purdue has dominated Minny at home but Minny needs to turn the tables this year or else bowl eligibility may start to slip away. Penn St. and Ohio St. visit Minny next. They are 2-3 SU hosting PSU but 1-12 hosting Ohio St. They actually catch both Michigan St. and Illinois is awkward scheduling situations. Can this team steal 1 or 2 SU on the road? They finale is vs. Iowa, and once again the Gophers have a favorable scheduling situation. BOTTOM LINE: We think they will underachieve early as they find an offensive identity and struggle with the young D, but then have a chance late for 1-2 upsets thanks to some favorable scheduling situations. They look to be 3-6 at best before the final 3, so 4-8 or 5-7 seems appropriate. If it gets ugly a coaching change may be the result.
10T. INDIANA
Indiana was competitive in ’09 but the point D was just too high. Only 4 starters return to this side of the ball as the Hoosiers must find replacements for 6 of their top ’09 tacklers. Without help from the defense expectations won’t be too high for ’10. AREAS TO WATCH: We were right about the run D drop last year. We’re moving them up a tad for ’10 (4.3). The +6 turnover ratio was achieved despite 15 QB interceptions. Figuring a more random fumble ratio, the Hoosiers may not be able to repeat this effort. We’ll still look vs. when not a rush pick (25-9 ATS). The defense lost its top 2 sackers and the team lost a solid return specialist. ACE STRATEGY: We are 13-8 thanks to a 3 year slump (0-1 LY). The non-conference schedule is even more of a joke than the ’09 version! Going less than 4-0 here would be awful! Based on that, Indiana only needs to find 2 wins to become bowl eligible. They play only 3 home games in ’10, and only the game at Illinois (2-12 SU at) represents road win shot. The home schedule includes Michigan (the Indiana defense will be severely tested here), Northwestern (decent history) and Iowa (5-9 SU as a dog, 2-0 SU as a favorite). It may take distractions from opposing teams for Indiana to win much and they could be a dog in all 8 conference games. BOTTOM LINE: 5-7. Those who know us understand how we feel about 6-6 teams getting bowl berths. It would be ridiculous for a team with a 2-6 conference record to go to a bowl, but it could happen here if the Hoosiers find 2 conference wins. For sanity sakes, here’s hoping they stay home.
Great Work, personally I think Iowa is overrated they struggled against DII Northern Iowa and Arkansas St. last year and I don't think they can get all the lucky breaks 2 years in a row. GL this year
dmtrader: 7 wins from a high profile program such as Michigan's should not be too much to ask for. Rich Rod is gone if they can't get to 7, and deservedly so. If they can't beat Michigan St. at home it would send a message, and not a good one. I'm concerned about the defense. Let's see how if plays out. They have a great chance to move up, IF they win at home.
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