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SEC EAST Preview
For a brief introduction to some of the terms used in the preview please look at the Big 12 South thread. Thanks.
1. FLORIDA
Is there life after Tim Tebow? Florida and Tebow have been inseparable the past 4 years and the hype (and results) was amazing. The story was so big that we think it contributed to the wear and tear on Urban Meyer’s health. Now reenergized and ready to go, Florida football looks to return to the top of the SEC in ’10. AREAS TO WATCH: A year after returning everyone on defense, Florida loses 5 EARLY draft picks to the NFL. Couple that with a new DC (reportedly their 3rd choice, remember George Edwards was hired, then left for the NFL) and we could see some slippage in the fantastic figures of the past 2 seasons, even with the usual amount of touted recruits. 4 offensive players were drafted by the NFL. The run game loses Tebow but the true RB’s are stout. The WR group may take a step back. ACE STRATEGY: We are 2-3 here the past 2 seasons as the lines do get inflated. We are 6-0 the last 6 on them, and 14-9 overall. Their 1st road game with the younger team is at Tennessee. Despite growing pains in ’10, the Vols have issues of their own and have not fared well in this series of late. SEC title game revenge occurs at Alabama 10/2. Unlike 6 other Alabama opponents, Florida will NOT have a bye prior to this game. This means we’ll have to chart the defense prior to this game to see where they stand. A morale check will be in order pre-LSU, with the Tigers often dangerous in this series. Florida is 17-7 ATS off a bye, which comes conveniently before playing Georgia. November games include a visit from S Car (9-0 SU), and a road trip to FSU. BOTTOM LINE: Florida will be favored 11 of 12 times. How the defense performs will determine if they can avoid a couple of losses. The nicely paced schedule has but 1 trap game. Despite the NFL losses, this looks like another 10+ win team, with 11 and even 12 wins possible. SPREAD NOTES: None as of this writing! The LSU game is tricky, however.
2. GEORGIA
Not since 2001 has Georgia won under 9 games. Last year their 8th win was not achieved until the bowl win. Mark Richt is 90-27 SU at Georgia and has never finished below 8 wins. Expectations continue to be sky high in football crazy Georgia and almost like in Tennessee under Fulmer, the natives are getting a bit restless. Richt is a fine HC, so we expect another 8+ wins again. Will that be enough to satisfy the masses? AREAS TO WATCH: 10 starters return on offense, but a redshirt freshman will be the new QB. Despite that, the Bulldogs should improve their -17 regular season turnover ratio. Moving the ratio to ZERO could mean an extra win or two. It was time to replace their DC and Richt did that. The returning group is a bit thin but perhaps the change will help. They switch to the 3-4 which should not impact their usually stout run D. The kicking game is solid. ACE STRATEGY: The usual result is 60+% and a bowl win. We got the bowl win last year, but were 0-3 in ’09 otherwise. The ’10 schedule is interesting. The early game at S Car is huge! They’ve won more than they’ve lost at S Car but the Gamecocks look improved for ’10. Right away the revamped defense gets a test hosting dangerous Arkansas. Can new QB Murray make a difference here? Road games at improved Miss St, and then Colorado follow. The Colorado affair is one of two potentially – scheduling situations on their schedule (Florida the other one). Georgia hopes for revenge at Kentucky (close games). The November game at Auburn could be a win if the defense is responding. Having a week off pre-GT (17-6 ATS off a bye) is good. BOTTOM LINE: We were right about 7-5 in ’09, lower than most others felt. Swing games will be S Car, Arkansas and at Auburn. We think they are 7-2 otherwise with a split at Miss St/Colorado, a loss to Florida and a revenge win at Kentucky. 9-3 looks very possible! SPREAD NOTES: The early LEANS are + or no play as a dog vs. S Car and – as a HF to Arkansas if the defense is not ready. The official plays are – as a RF of 3 or > at Colorado 10/2, and + 11/27 vs. GT if Georgia is off a SU win vs. Auburn AND with line setting clues.
3. SOUTH CAROLINA
This is it! After years of “aw shucks”, 2010 has to be the year we see Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks compete for the SEC East title. Almost every area on this team is = or better than in the past. 16 starters return along with a deep special team unit. It’s time for the “ball coach” to get his team to a more meaningful bowl game. AREAS TO WATCH: QB Garcia was “forced” to avoid turnovers in ’09 and it showed in his cautious play. The turnover ratio was still -3. The 55.3% has to rise, NOW! Even with run figures corrected for sacks (as we do with our rush design) the 3.9/133 is too low for this team. We project them at 4.3 in ’10. Speaking of sacks, they have a new OL coach. Will this experienced OL finally limit sacks, even in the sometimes not so friendly Spurrier QB scheme? ACE STRATEGY: We are 11-3 ATS the past 5 years after going 3-0 in ’09. That does NOT count our 5-0 bowl performance. The schedule is not easy. Even Furman and Troy field winning programs. So. Miss can be pesky, but that has to be a home win prior to the critical game vs. Georgia. While we expect the defense to be fine, the concern will be the offense. Furman is a “trap” game, but still should be a SU win prior to another huge game at Auburn. We don’t expect 4-0, but this highly experienced team needs to be 3-1 prior to the bye and Alabama. Is this season going to be special or end with just another minor bowl bid? Whatever the result is vs. the Tide, this team needs to regroup immediately to play road games at Kentucky and Vandy. Normally this would be a split, but with new coaches at both schools can’t they win both? The final 4 games are dangerous, beginning at home vs. Arkansas, an expected loss at Florida, another motivationally challenged game vs. Troy and the finale at Clemson. BOTTOM LINE: This experienced team should be 6-2 prior to Arkansas, but it may be hard to them to win more than 8 and perhaps easier for them to be upset in a game everyone has them winning. Early games vs. Georgia and Auburn are huge for ’10 morale, as expectations are high. If the SEC East is lost the motivation goes down. SPREAD NOTES: Leans (not official plays yet) are – as a HF of 8 or more vs. So. Miss and – as a HF vs. Georgia. We are willing to take Furman 9/18. We’ll come back with a + 10/9 vs. Alabama if they are off a SU win, a dog and a rush pick. We’ll take Troy 11/20 if line setting clues exist. We’ll go against EITHER Clemson or S Car 11/27 if one of them plays in a conference title game on 12/4.
4. TENNESSEE
Brash Lane Kiffin is out, replaced by the more politically correct Derek Dooley. Dooley has SEC bloodlines and his teams at L. Tech improved statistically over time. Time may be the key word here as the Vols would seem to be in a rebuilding mode after losing 13 starters and 25 lettermen. AREAS TO WATCH: The offense loses QB Crompton and RB Hardesty, and is poised to lose RB Brown as well. If that’s not enough, the entire OL is gone from a year ago. All offensive #’s must be charted during the 1st half of the year. The new DC may be a good one (from Boise), but he’s not going to have DL Dan Williams, LB Rico McCoy or outstanding DB Eric Berry roaming the field. Tennessee has been 18-10 when a rush pick, but what will all these changes mean? Considering the tough early schedule, we’re still leaning in that direction should they achieve this status from 10/30 on. No SR’s are expected to start in the secondary, and the OL may start 3 underclassmen. ACE STRATEGY: After +’s then severe –‘s in ’06-’07 we are 8-4 over the past 2 seasons. We liked the pace of the ’09 schedule but do not like this one. Yes, they get Oregon and Florida at home but with all the changes it does not appear the Vols will be win ready in either game. How will the focus be for UAB, sandwiched right between the Florida and LSU games? The road game at LSU is immediately followed by a road game at Georgia. Tennessee is staring at 2-4 SU. The bye will help them regroup, but facing Alabama still won’t be easy (5-3 SU lately). Unfortunately, they immediately take a road trip to S Car and Memphis. If healthy, perhaps they’ll relish “easier” games hosting OL Miss, at Vandy and hosting Kentucky. BOTTOM LINE: Vegas makes few mistakes, but the initial set of 7 as the win total was way too high! The number is much lower now, for good reason. They may need to steal an early win (Oregon?) or a win at South Carolina to avoid being 2-6 by the end of October. Dooley may be the right choice for the long run but for ’10, 6-6 may be the ceiling. SPREAD NOTES: We’ll look vs. 1st in most of games 1-8, with a – as a HF 9/25 vs. UAB and a – if not a rush pick 10/2 at LSU (1st RG) early official tabs. Their September performance will be interesting to see.
5. KENTUCKY
Many people were surprised when Rich Brooks made it to a 4th season as the coach after compiling a 9-25 record in years 1-3. He leaves Kentucky after going 30-22 his final 4 years including 3 bowl wins! Joker Phillips has been the coach in waiting and his first task is to try to keep that bowl string alive despite losing 11 starters and 27 lettermen. It won’t be easy, but there are some interesting and talented offensive players to build around. AREAS TO WATCH: The backfield has experience but with plenty of experience gone from the OL we see a reduction in the yards per carry on offense. We don’t see the pass D% repeating the out of the blue 48% of ’09, but even more importantly, we were big fans of Micah Johnson and wonder what effect his departure will have on the overall defense. Rich Brooks leaves on a high note but let’s not forget that his teams went just 8-16 SU in conference play the past 3 seasons. ACE STRATEGY: After being 80+% from ’00-’08 we closed the decade poorly at 1-4 (bowl record 4-0). Kentucky continues to have the cushy non-conference schedule and games 2-3 will give both the team and us a chance to evaluate team strengths and weaknesses. Game 1 at Louisville is tougher and both teams may not be ready for this one. It’s tough to start the conference games with back to back road tilts at Florida/OL Miss, but the real measuring stick comes right after that with 3 straight at home vs. Auburn (few home wins), S Car (2-9 SU, S Car just played Alabama), and Georgia (SU 4-12), At least 1 win needs to come from this group, and maybe 2. They’ve played well at Miss St but the Bulldogs may be improved now. 2 wins may follow before the Wildcats get a bye prior to the finale at Tennessee. Kentucky has lost 25 straight to the Vols but this rare bye is a + and the Wildcats are 18-10 ATS off a bye. Can this help? BOTTOM LINE: Overall we feel the team is weaker, but the schedule gives them a shot at 6-6. Our concerns are real however, so 5-7 could be the end result. SPREAD NOTES: For the past 2 seasons we had no tabs in this spot. We’d like to find a vs. play or 2 in the 1st half of the year while the staff gets acclimated without key players but can not find a specific play against right now. Our only official tab will be + as a DD road dog 11/27 at Tennessee with line setting clues.
6. VANDERBILT
Bobby Johnson is (was) a good coach, but not a great one. Twice in the past 6 seasons they returned an enormous amount of starters, only to see their win record decrease. It’s hard to win at Vandy so these were opportunities lost. Bobby’s last minute departure has left the Commodores in a bit of scramble. If all else fails, the interim coach can go into the media business after wowing the masses during the SEC meetings. At least that was fun to watch! AREAS TO WATCH: The point O and the pass % O is holding this team down. Vandy averaged less than 9 points per game in conference and for the season the QB% was under 49%. Time of possession was awful at -7:38! On top of this we are projecting a good-sized drop in the run O with just 1 OL starter returning. The DL is also thin. Team trends under Johnson need correcting. Vandy was 17-27 ATS in home games and 7-15 ATS as any favorite. Special teams play does look good. ACE STRATEGY: We are at 53% overall after going 4-2 in ‘09. Like with Tennessee, we expect some real growing pains. Northwestern and LSU come to Vandy, but while Northwestern seldom blows teams out Vandy has likely less than a 50% win shot. They’ve won 5 of 17 at OL Miss, and this 1st road game figures to be a learning situation. The win they have to have is vs. 0-12 E Mich because after that Vandy plays 6 straight ’09 bowl teams and closes hosting WF. The interim HC is full of enthusiasm but the talent level says this year won’t be an easy one. BOTTOM LINE: 2 or 3 wins. The program could get a kick start with an upset vs. Northwestern; otherwise they start 0-4. Somewhere, somehow the offense is going to need to help considering the defense appears = at best to ’09. SPREAD NOTES: - if not a rush pick 10/23 vs. S Car. We have no other official tabs but do believe we will have 2-3 vs. tries based on what we think will be a tough year for them.
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