Goal is to hit strikes and avoid gutter balls. So with that said, here's my pick for the first bowl game of the season, the Poinsetta bowl.
Utah -7 (2 units)
Having a tough time finding a way Navy's defence will be able to stop Utah's offence. Navy has been putrid on defence, allowing 59 points against Deleware, 45 against Pitt, 43 against Duke, and over 60 points against North Texas. Basically, I feel that every possession Utah gets will result in a score. I don't think Navy will be able to hang with Utah over the entire game. I think this game may be close in the first half, but ultimately Utah will pull away in the second half. I'll buy this down to 7 and play this on the safe side, as this is more or less a home game for Navy, and I'm sure they will give it their best effort in front of the servicemen and women who will be in attendance, but Navy's defence simply isn't good enough to handle Utah's offence.
Well, last night was a crazy finish that resulted in me getting a bad ass beat with a Navy backdoor cover. Anyways, on to todays New Orleans Bowl.
Florida Atlantic/Memphis OVER 66 ( to win 3 units)
I can't see how these two gun slinging offenses will be able to keep it under 66 points tonight. Memphis chucked the ball over 500 times this year for 36 ppg. On the defensive side however, they had a tough time stopping offenses allowing 34 ppg. The last 6 games they were in produced over 70 ppg, averaging nearly 900 total yards this season. Florida Atlantic is the flip side on the same coin as Memphis. They also aired it out over 500 times and averaged over 70 ppg in their last 6 games. All went over the total, with the combined yardage going 830 yards! Both teams love throwing the ball, and this will lead to either incompletions that will stop the clock, or result in gaining yardage in chunks that will keep the chains moving. Also, we'll get to see alot of long balls being thrown. Both teams have produced a whopping 58 TD's from outside the redzone, as well as eight more from turnovers or special teams for a total of 66 TD's from anywhere on the field. I anticpate nothing less than a high scoring game, with as many as 80 points being scored here.
Nice rebound tonight, hitting the over 66 in the New Orleans bowl. On to tomorrow's slate of games.
Cincinnati Bearcats -10 bth (to win 2 units)
This looks to be the biggest mismatch so far in the early bowl season, perhaps the entire bowl season. I hate laying more than a TD in a bowl game, but I'll make an exception here. Now I know there will be alot of emotion on SMU as a result of this being the last game for coach Bower at the program, but SMU doesn't have enough horses in this tilt. Cincy gets it done on both sides of the ball. They have scored 441/223 for an average game score of 37-19. They can pass and run the ball effectively from their spread formation, and this will give SMU fits tomorrow. Cincy's physical run defense (ranked no. 1 in Conference USA - #15 nationwide) is going to eliminate any run offence of SMU, which is their only real offensive threat. They have given up 100 yards or more in only 3 games (for a season game average of 106). This may be a letdown game for Cincy, having been passed on for the Meineke Bowl and the Sun Bowl, but I think they will play with a chip on their shoulder and will try to blow out SMU. The only way I see SMU keeping this game close is if they can limit Cincy scoring. They certainly won't be able to run on the tough Cincy defence, and if they are down early they won't be able to catch up as SMU is severely lacking in the pass threat department. But Cincy has too many offensive weapons here and they should cover the 10 points easy.
Nevada Wolf pacK +3 bth (to win 2 units)
Nevada ML (1 unit)
The dog finally barks in this contest. The wrong team is favoured here, and I'm confident enough to throw a unit on the ML. New Mexico will be playing at home, but this is not enough of an edge against Nevada. Nevada is ranked 7th in total offense and 11th in total rushing in all of college foots. Nevada RB Lippincott is the WAC's leading rusher this season with an average of 115 yds per game. Nevada has scored 435 points for and 395 points against, for a game average of 33-36. But the big problem for the Lobos is that they will be without RB Ferguson through suspension, which will limit their running game severely. I don't think New Mexico has enough firepower offensively to keep up with the Nevada "pistol" offense. It's Nevada and the points for me.
For whatever reason, UCLA just couldn't get it together this year despite having some decent talent. The offense was ranked 69th in rushing yards and 93rd in passing yards, and averaged only 23 points per game. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games, and are a team in transition, with no one knowing who their next coach will be. I just can't put money on a team that has played as inconsistently as UCLA this year. On the flip side, BYU have reeled off 9 straight wins, and their only loss came way back in September. QB Hall has been excellent during this run, with 3,617 passing yards, 60% completion rate and a 24 to 12 TD/INT rate. They also have a decent run game and this puts them well balanced in the offensive category. On the defensive side of the ball, BYU is ranked 9th in rush defence and has yet to allow anyone to rush for 100 yards. They are 4-2 against bowl teams, and they always come to play hard. I'm taking the team that comes to play here and will lay the 6 points against an inconsistent UCLA team.
Rough day yesterday, going 0-2-1, for a net loss of 4 units. On to today's game:
East Carolina +11 bth (1 unit)
Got to head out to do some last minute xmas shopping, so no time for a long writeup. Boise is going to face a tough defence tonight, and they are without their top wide receiver. Not laying double digit points in this bowl game, so East Carolina is the play for me.
Hope everyone had a great Xmas! Here's what I like in the Motor City Bowl
Purdue -7 bth ( 1 unit)
We are going to see a high scoring game in this one, but Purdue will be the one doing most of the scoring. Purdue already beat up on CMU earlier this year to the tune of 45-22, and I expect a similar score in this one. CMU gives up an average of 36 ppg, and their leading rusher is their QB. Further, CMU has lost 23 straight to BCS conference teams. They got hammered out of conference this year, getting beat down by an average of 41 points! In any event, the line is too low here, as it has been bet down by the public probably due to the fact that dogs are 4-2 so far this bowl season. Can't see the dog barking tonight, even though they are playing a home game.
Thought I had the Purdue game won after the first half, but then the Boilermakers decide to shit the bed and made an awful performance. Notch up another loss. On to today's matchup:
ASU +3 bth (1 unit)
I think the wrong team is favored here, but then again I was wrong with Nevada earlier. So this is a small play for me. I look for ASU to exploit Texas' poor pass defence tonight. Rudy Carpenter should have a field day against a sub-par Texas secondary.
So far not so good for me in the bowls. Hope to turn it around today.
Michigan State +5 (2 units)
Everyone and their brother is on BC today, so why has the line only moved 2 points? BC finds themselves in a shitty bowl, after they went 8-0 earlier in the year and had a # 2 ranking. I question BC's motivation in this one.
Got a bit lucky with Mich. State yesterday, but the Terrapins shit the bed in the second half to blow that game. At least it wasn't a losing day. On to today's picks:
Wake Forest -2 (2 units)
Wake ended the season strong, while Uconn ended their season allowing 66 points against them. Jim Grobe will have his team up for this game, and as long as Skinner doesn't make many mistakes and turn the ball over. I'll take a shot with what I believe is the hotter team and take Wake Forest here.
SOS was tougher for Miss State, including wins against UK, Auburn and at home against Bama. I feel Miss State will be able to contain Kevin Smith today by putting 8 men in the box, therefore forcing UCF to throw more than they want to.
Finally got on track yesterday, winning with my first two picks, but losing a close one with the Aggies, but it was only a 1 unit play. So I gained a nice 3 units yesterday, hope to get in the black tonight. My pick for the Independance bowl:
Colorado +5 (2 units)
Two very even teams here, so taking the points is where I will be heading. This is a game that I feel will be decided by a FG. Alabama struggled down the stretch, losing to LA Monroe, Miss State, Auburn and LSU. Another problem I see for Alabama is the poor play of John Parker Wilson. Taking the total of the last four games (all of which Bama dropped) Wilson is 63/131 (48.1%), for 714 yards, 4 TD's and 6 INT's. Not exactly stellar numbers.
Another loss by a single point last night. Breaks have been few and far between for me. On to today's slate of games:
Air Force +4.5 (1 unit)
As I saw earlier this year with Navy, Military Acadamies are bad teams to fade in these bowls. They play hard every down and never quit, so there is always a chance of a backdoor cover. This plus the fact watching Cal's latest performances that they have thrown in the towel. I'll take Air Force and the points for a small nibble.
South Florida -6 (4 units)
Biggest bowl play to date. Reason? No Dennis Dixon. Oregon's season went down the drain when Dixon went down. Jonathon Stewart will be playing for Oregon, a Freshman, but he is no Dennis Dixon, and I can't see him being a stud today. I think South Florida Rolls here.
Had an ok day yesterday, however I dropped roughly 1 unit overall. That wouldn't be the case had I not taken a bad beat in the Texas Tech/Virgina game, where they scored 17 points in the last 5 minutes!
Anyways, still plenty of games left in the season, hope to get in the black tonight and erase my 3 unit deficit:
Oklahoma -7 (3 units)
Oklahoma returns to the Fiesta Bowl tonight, one year after it was upset by Boise State. The Sooners are going to want to make amends and I'm sure they are going to come out focused and fired up tonight. The Sooners have won 7 of eight to finish the year, including demolishin Mizzou 38-17 in the Big 12 Championship. The only loss they suffered during this stretch was when they lost QB Sam Bradford for the game. On the other side of the field we have a West Virginia team without their coach, a banged up QB, and an offense that relied on the rushing game but now intends to pass? I just don't see how West Virgina can cover this game.
I dropped another 2 units thanks to the Hokies and some questionable calls from coach Beamer. Now down 8 units on the bowls, and looks like this year will end in the negative. I've done well on other sports, so obviously isn't killing me, but would like to get some of what I lost back. On to tomorrow's (or today's i guess) International Bowl.
Rutgers/Ball State OVER 62.5 (2 units)
Rutgers -11 (1 unit)
Both teams can put up points, and I expect points somewhere in the 65 or so range today. On one side of the ball we have Ball States Nate Davis, probably one of the best QB's that no one has heard of, and I believe he will be able to throw all day long against a very questionable Rutgers secondary. Meanwhile, Ray Rice should have a field day against a poor rush defence from Ball State, and should be able to run through that defence like a knife through butter. I'm going to take a nibble at the over, and a small play on Rutgers in this one.
Had a good day yesterday in the International Bowl, with both bets hitting. Hoping to keep it going today.
Tulsa/Bowling Green OVER 77.5 (2 units)
It's a ton of points, but neither Tulsa, not BG play defence whatsoever. I wouldn't be shocked to see 90 points scored in this game. Going to take a shot at the over.
Well, it's been a rough bowl season for me. Yesterday's game was shameful to be honest. Tulsa came through with the points, but BG didn't bother showing up. How did they get into a bowl game? They were horrendous! Game smelled a bit fishy to me, but I guess that could be expected in the GMAC bowl game.
Last game to go here. Not going to chase my losses on the season, my roll is actually up thanks to a 3-1 in the NFL this week. Anyways, on to the final play of the bowl season:
LSU -3 bth (3 units)
I'll take a shot on the healthier team. When LSU is healthy, they are practically unbeatable. OSU is going to play against the fastest team they have faced since last years NC game against Florida. LSU has the better offence, however they have a more mobile, experience QB, and they rotate RB's so they will be able to play with fresh legs. OSU has no imagination on offence and may find it difficult to score points on this fast LSU defence. If OSU gets down early, they will have a hard time playing catchup.
Wasn't the best bowl season for me, but glad I won with the LSU Tigers tonight to cut my losses on the season to just 4 units. Could have been worse, could have been better though.
Hope people faded some of my plays, maybe you made more than I did.
Anyways, that's it that's all folks. No more college foots until september.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Let's go bowling! Bowl season picks
Reply With Quote
