1. 11-13-07 10:02 AM #1
    bueller
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    Toledo @ Ball St -5.5*****tonight*****

    Looking over who Ball St has played I'm leaning towards Ball St. -5.5.
    looking at Ball St. last 3 games (@ INDIANA Loss 20-38, @ ILL. Loss 17-28, @W.Mich Win 27-23) I feel they really proved to me that they can hang with teams that are better then them, and beat teams they should beat.
    Toledo has won the last three games to get themselves back to .500 ball, but they were against teams that they should have beaten (E Mich. 3-8, NOILL 2-8,OU 5-6, and they lost to Buffalo who are 4-6)

    Your Thoughts?
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  2. 11-13-07 10:43 AM #2
    Furt
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    I like Toledo in the one... only question in my mind is to go with Toledo on the money line or with the points...
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  3. 11-13-07 10:49 AM #3
    Furt
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    Glad I waited a bit. Spread is now at 6... and the money line went from +200 to +215... going to wait a bit longer and see what happens
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  4. 11-13-07 10:59 AM #4
    bueller
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    I know Toledo has a really good Running Back (Jalen Parmele), but why is everyone like Toledo in this? I've talk to a couple other blogs and they like the Over 64 and Toledo + points?

    I might just skip tonight.

    Man though I love Tuesday games. It's like a bridge into the weekend games.
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  5. 11-13-07 11:02 AM #5
    ShamsWoof10
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    I can get pretty close to the team and I always wondered if that would help my cappin' just betting their games...

    I can attend practice and get pretty close... I use to kick while they warmed up...

    I don't mean sh*t like fixing games I mean just watch them and see what their game plan is for that week... You can know for SURE who is out, who is banged up, if they plan on running more... etc. etc..

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  6. 11-13-07 11:34 AM #6
    Cougar Bait
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    Quote Originally Posted by bueller View Post
    I know Toledo has a really good Running Back (Jalen Parmele), but why is everyone like Toledo in this? I've talk to a couple other blogs and they like the Over 64 and Toledo + points?

    I might just skip tonight.

    Man though I love Tuesday games. It's like a bridge into the weekend games.
    My first instinct was also to go with Ball St. but the way these weekday games have been playing out it seems like none have been blow-outs (Central Michigan game, Bowling Green game, TCU game). The total might actually be the play here as it started at 62 and now is at 66.5.
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  7. 11-13-07 11:38 AM #7
    Furt
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    The line is moving pretty rapidly. I'm going to wait a couple more hours to see what happens. I have the line at 6.5 and the money line on Toledo has gone from +200 to +245... I really like Toledo here. Going to wait and see what happens
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  8. 11-13-07 12:03 PM #8
    Negataur
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    Check out these trends.....

    Visitor in this series is 1-5-1
    Ball St. 9-0 off Double Digit SU loss vs opp off Double Digit SU win
    Ball st. 6-0 home after allowing 35 or more points
    Ball ST. 4-0 as home favs vs. opp w/revenge
    Ball St. 6-1 in 2nd last game
    Ball St. 6-1 as favs off Back to Back losses

    Toledo is 1-3 in the last four meetings.

    This may explain the line shift.
    Each team giving up over 400 yds offense explains the total rising.

    Good luck to all. Going to go with the home team on a tuesday night.
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  9. 11-13-07 12:31 PM #9
    ShamsWoof10
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    I know one thing FOR SURE... Even when Toledo was good and Ball St. was bad for some reason Ball St. has Toledo's number going back to the late 1980's... Well that's as far as I remember anyway concerning UT/Ball St.

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  10. 11-13-07 12:41 PM #10
    bueller
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    the over under is at 67.5! It started out at 62. At what point do you think of taking the under? I mean are the bookies that far off.
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  11. 11-13-07 01:08 PM #11
    Louisvillekid1
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    these games are ridic,. . . none of us should be playing this game, but if your a gambler and needs action on a tues night,atleast it gives us some entertainment for 3 hours of so. . . i was back and fourth on this game , but i decided to lay the pts wit the home favorite ball st. . . they are coming off two road games at illinois and indiana , which are two tough places to play, and coming back home to play toledo. . . they want a win to get over the .500 mark and they deserve it, playing a pretty tough schedule all year long. . . hoping for a 38 - 24 cardinal win. . . the over is probally the better play here, but i dont play totals . . .
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  12. 11-13-07 01:36 PM #12
    Cougar Bait
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    Wow. This is ridiculous. This game is now -7 and at 68! Help!
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  13. 11-13-07 01:50 PM #13
    KidDynamite
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    [QUOTE=Louisvillekid1;410361]these games are ridic,. . . none of us should be playing this game, but if your a gambler and needs action on a tues night,atleast it gives us some entertainment for 3 hours of so. . .QUOTE]

    HA! Totally agree. I shouldn't be betting this game because I haven't seen either of these teams play. But it sure is fun to throw shit at the TV when the team I play starts to lose!
    Last edited by KidDynamite; 11-13-07 at 01:52 PM.
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  14. 11-13-07 02:00 PM #14
    Cougar Bait
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    Okay, after some digging around I found this information very helpful in making my decision for tonight's game. There are only 2 more Bowls available for the MAC and both teams are 5-5, so tonight's game is crutial in that respect. Toledo (5-5, 3-3 MAC) enters the Ball State game playing its best football of the season. The Rockets have scored 165 points in their current three-game winning streak, including a 70-21 win over Northern Illinois (yes, I know, it's only Northern Illinois) and a 52-28 triumph over Eastern Michigan last Saturday. Against the Eagles, Jalen Parmele racked up 168 yards and three TDs, his sixth straight 100-yard game. Sophomore Stephen Williams (150 yards) and junior Nick Moore (119) each gained over 100 yards in receiving. Sophomore QB Aaron Opelt has looked sharp since missing two-plus games with an injury. He has thrown for 867 yards and seven touchdowns with no interceptions in the last three games. It's Toledo +7 for me tonight. GL forum!
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  15. 11-13-07 02:21 PM #15
    Furt
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    I liked Toledo from the very beginning but I am trying to ride it out as long as possible. My book still has Ball St a 6.5 pt favorite. If it get to 7 I will make a play. The money line on this one is intriguing though at +245... I may go out on a limb.

    Those trends are pretty stunning at face value but Toledo did win last year at Balls St by 21 I believe (I think it was 35-14 or somewhere along those lines). They have been absolutely on fire of late since getting their starting QB back

    it is scary that they have not won on the road this year however...
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  16. 11-13-07 02:33 PM #16
    bueller
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    This sounds crazy but if the line jumps alway up to 70 from 62 I'm going with the under. I just can't see the bookies off by that much. The public is going crazy over the total.
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  17. 11-13-07 02:33 PM #17
    icemantbi
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    I took the over in this game for a very small play. We should see 70 when all is said and done.
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  18. 11-13-07 02:36 PM #18
    Louisvillekid1
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    [QUOTE=KidDynamite;410387]
    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    these games are ridic,. . . none of us should be playing this game, but if your a gambler and needs action on a tues night,atleast it gives us some entertainment for 3 hours of so. . .QUOTE]

    HA! Totally agree. I shouldn't be betting this game because I haven't seen either of these teams play. But it sure is fun to throw shit at the TV when the team I play starts to lose!

    haha , sounds just like me . . .
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  19. 11-13-07 03:07 PM #19
    kdmfox
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    Toledo +6.5
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  20. 11-13-07 03:50 PM #20
    area51steve
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    Line is at Toledo +7 at some books. Over the past three games, all wins, UT has averaged 55 points and 628 yards. Toledo is ranked first in the MAC in total offense and Ball State is ranked second. Toledo has better rushing stats and ball state's offense is more focused on the passing game. Toledo knows ball state's QB very well, having recruited him for several years. Nate Davis has thrown for 22TDs with just 6 interceptions this year, and leads the MAC with 2,785 passing yards. Toledo has only 9 sacks, the least of any MAC team. Toledo is 14-13 on national TV under Amstutz. Last year Toledo played on ESPN2 four times, winning three.
    Ball State is 2nd in the MAC in scoring defense, giving up 26 points per game. Two of Ball State's losses have been by one point. Tough game to pick, but I'm rollin with UT in this one.

    My pick: Toledo +7
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  21. 11-13-07 04:26 PM #21
    ShamsWoof10
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    I don't believe in stats one bit... I like Ball St. -7...

    A good game prop would be how many times STUTZ goes for it on fourth down... That could work for or against me here..

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  22. 11-13-07 04:48 PM #22
    icsky3
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    Toledo +7 Under 69..... don't be fooled.
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  23. 11-13-07 05:01 PM #23
    louisvillekid
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    i'm not touching this game but my .02 is Tol and the under
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  24. 11-13-07 05:02 PM #24
    Dan
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    Over/under is 70.5 to me now. Thinking about under.
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  25. 11-13-07 05:07 PM #25
    sikballplaya24
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    Quote Originally Posted by icsky3 View Post
    Toledo +7 Under 69..... don't be fooled.
    Sorry to say but looks like you got fooled


    Toledo + 7
    Over 69 BIG
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  26. 11-13-07 05:31 PM #26
    NeverEnough
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    OU @ 71.5

    Spread still 7

    What to do?
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  27. 11-13-07 05:32 PM #27
    BigD
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    Toledo recent success has come at home and against the worst teams in the MAC.

    I took Ball St. -6 big the over under went nuts and shot up to 72
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  28. 11-13-07 06:04 PM #28
    Crayzee
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    at 72.5 any takers for under?
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  29. 11-13-07 06:12 PM #29
    patsfan2727
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    I'm leaning towards the under 71, these teams put up big points, but against crappy teams. this should actually be a good game, TOL seems to have the momentum, but the home team owns this series....
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  30. 11-13-07 06:12 PM #30
    NeverEnough
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    Took...

    Toledo +250 ML
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  31. 11-13-07 06:21 PM #31
    mgcolby
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    I ended up going with Ball St they held Illinois to 28 the same as Ohio did while putting up 17. They loss to Indiana but were competitive. I think Ball St defense is being under estimated (based on the scores in the games they have played) and I may go with the under.
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  32. 11-13-07 06:31 PM #32
    NeverEnough
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    Anyone else playing this game?

    Speak or forever hold your peace!
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  33. 11-13-07 06:48 PM #33
    NeverEnough
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    Looks like both Defenses may be OVERRATED

    That was PITIFUL!
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  34. 11-13-07 06:58 PM #34
    moneyplays
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    I took ball state -7. Not looking too good right now.
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