[Willie Bee]

Indiana (+7½) versus Penn State

Game Time: 10/20/2007 12:00 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

The first meeting between the two schools since 2004 finds Penn State walking into Indiana's homecoming. Take the points and the Hoosiers Saturday vs. the Nittany Lions.

Penn State has put together two straight impressive wins to move back into the top 25. Both of those victories came at home however, and now the Nittany Lions hit the road once again where they are 0-2 on the season and just 2-5 in their last seven games over the last two seasons.

Making matters even tougher, Penn St. is hosting the Buckeyes at home next Saturday night so there is definitely a look-ahead possibility. The Nittany Lions are 10-0 lifetime against Indiana but the two schools have not played since 2004.

The Hoosiers started the season 5-1 and had some great momentum going until they hit Lansing last Saturday and were annihilated by the Spartans. It was a humbling defeat and one that Indiana can build upon as it looks to become bowl eligible for the first time since 1993. It is homecoming in Bloomington and for all of the bad teams in the past, the Hoosiers have still won three straight homecoming contests. Add to that the game is nationally televised on ESPN and it will be a great home atmosphere.

It will be the same type of atmosphere that the Hoosiers saw against the Spartans as it was homecoming there as well. A year ago you might remember that Indiana was in a very similar situation going into this game. The Hoosiers had five wins with three games left, but they lost all three and fell one victory short of becoming bowl eligible. That experience will help this time around as they are a more focused team and are taking it just one game at a time and not pressing.

Penn St. quarterback Anthony Morelli is coming off one of his best games but he is a completely different quarterback on the road and it shows in clutch time. In five home games, the Nittany Lions are 24-for-25 in red-zone scoring opportunities; in two road games, they’re 6-for-10 with just one touchdown. The Hoosiers will be able to get pressure on the quarterback and that will be a bad situation for Morelli. Indiana leads the nation with 32 sacks, an average of 4.5 per game.

Penn St. did not turn the ball over against Wisconsin, the first time that has happened all season. That changes here however as the major difference in the road losses was the increase in turnovers. Indiana has forced 18 turnovers, the second highest total in the conference and it is third in the Big Ten in turnover margin. The Penn St. defense has been solid but unlike the last two opponents, Indiana can move the ball. Indiana is averaging 411.6 ypg and is third in the Big Ten in scoring at 36.0 ppg.

The last game for Penn St. was another solid one defensively but that is part of a great situation favoring Indiana in this one. Play against any team that is averaging 28 or more ppg and after allowing nine points or less last game going up against a defense that is allowing 21 or more after seven or more games. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being just -0.5 ppg.

The Hoosiers getting a touchdown is more than we will need. Play Indiana for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Indiana +7½ (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Ohio St. (-17½) vs. Michigan St.

Game Time: 10/20/2007 03:30 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Newly crowned No. 1 in the nation, Ohio State has been playing solid defense this season. Lay the big points and back the Buckeyes at home versus the Michigan State Spartans.

Our Saturday afternoon college football selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Michigan State.

OSU has been playing great defense this season, and has held its last four foes to 3, 7, 7 and 7 points. I won't step in front of this defensive juggernaut, and especially not at home in the Horseshoe. Consider that since 1980, unrested college gootball teams are a solid 37-7 ATS at home when priced from -7½ to -27½ points, if they held each of their last three foes to less than 13 points, and when they're matched up against a conference foe with a .454 (or better) win percentage. Take Ohio State to rout Michigan State.

Free Pick: Ohio State -17½

[Willie Bee]

Buckeyes (-17½) to cover Spartans

Game Time: 10/20/2007 03:30 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

Upsets have played a huge role in lifting Ohio State into the No. 1 slot of the initial BCS rankings, but don't look for the Buckeyes to leave their backers upset against the Spartans.

Both teams come off impressive blowout victories. The Spartans continued their mastery of the Hoosiers, knocking off Indiana by a score of 52-27. Michigan State absolutely dominated the stats and held the ball for a whopping 41 minutes.

The Buckeyes were even better as they crushed Kent State by a score of 48-3. That win brought them to 7-0 on the season and also earned them the #1 ranking in the country. Granted, the schedule has been on the soft side. However, that's not the players' fault. All they've done is win every game by double-digits, beating every opponent by a minimum of 16 points.

Prior to the Kent State beat-down, Ohio State's last home game was a 58-7 destruction of Northwestern. Note that Northwestern won at Michigan State only two weeks later!

The Buckeyes tend to jump on teams early as they've scored on their opening drive in three straight games and five of their last seven. They've also done a great job of making the most of their opportunities. After going five-for-five in the red zone against the Golden Flashes, the Buckeyes are now an impressive 26 of 28 in the Red Zone for the season.

Looking at the series history we find that the Buckeyes have dominated, winning five straight and 10 of 12. Last season's meeting was at Michigan State and Ohio State won by a score of 38-7. This year, in addition to playing at home, the Buckeyes will be anxious to prove that they deserve to be the #1 ranked team. Yes, Spartans' coach Mark Dantonio used to serve as defensive coordinator under the Buckeyes' Jim Tressel. That didn't stop Tressel from running up the score when Dantonio was head coach at Cincinnati though, as Ohio State was 2-0 against Dantonio's Bearcats, winning by an average of 26 points.

Despite last week's victory, the Spartans remain a poor 2-8 ATS in October the past three seasons and a money-burning 5-14 ATS in conference play. Conversely, with last week's win, the Buckeyes are 8-2 ATS in October and 15-4 ATS against fellow Big-10 opponents.

The Buckeyes are also a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times they were favorites in the -10½ to -21 point range. They should record another convincing victory on Saturday. Consider laying the points.

Free Pick: Ohio State -17½ (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Follow Florida Gators (-6½) at Kentucky Wildcats

Game Time: 10/20/2007 03:30 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Kentucky is in letdown mode coming off an emotional and physical OT win over LSU. Look for Florida to extend their streak in this series to 21 wins on Saturday.

The Florida Gators enter into this contest well rested and off a bye week against a Kentucky Wildcats team that is in a letdown mode after an emotional and physical 43-37 OT win against SEC powerhouse LSU last week.

That is not a good omen for a Kentucky program that has been absolutely dominated in the past by the Gators as is evident by losing 20 straight meetings in this series with the average margin of defeat ringing in at 23 PPG.

Final Notes & Key Trends: Florida head coach Urban Meyer is 21-2 when having seven days or more of preparation time. Bottom line: It's not always a great strategy backing TD+ away favs in any football league, but sometimes the situation does warrant a wager, although be it for a minimal amount. Play on Florida.

Free Pick: Florida -6½ (-110)

[onlooker]

Matt Fargo I also like Indiana on Saturday.

[Willie Bee]

Western Michigan +1½ vs. Ball St.

Game Time: 10/20/2007 02:00 PM -
By: Brian Gabrielle | procappers.com

Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo is the site for this week's big MAC game, a homecoming contest for Western Michigan vs. Ball St. Back the Broncos at home against the Cardinals.

The MAC has been good to us this year, and it's time to go back. No, I'm not picking against Northern Illinois again this week; they face a reeling Wisconsin team favored by 23, and while that should be an easy cover for P.J. Hill and the Badgers, I'm through trying to figure out that team for the '07 season.

Instead, I'm taking on a couple of teams I haven't investigated yet this season: Ball St. at Western Michigan.

The Western Michigan Broncos are the MAC's premier clock-possession team. They lead the conference in time of possession with 32:17 per game, and have a pair of solid-not-spectacular backs in senior Mark Bonds and sophomore Brandon West, who combined to average 139 yards a game. The Broncos also feature sophomore quarterback Tim Hiller, the 2005 MAC freshman of the year (he red-shirted '06 because of a knee injury). Hiller is second in the conference in passer rating, and leads a passing attack that's racked up the 31st-most passing yards in the nation.

Now, that's a bit misleading, because the team padded its stats against Central Connecticut St. and got down so huge to West Virginia they had to throw every down. Still, Hiller's more than capable.

Ball St. lost its starting rusher, MiQuale Lewis, for the season due to a knee injury he suffered against Nebraska, so the offensive mantel has shifted dramatically to quarterback Nate Davis, the only MAC signal-caller with a better rating than Hiller. He's got 18 touchdowns and just three picks this year. Last week, Davis led his Cardinals to a homecoming win over I-AA Western Kentucky despite the fact that the score was 14-12 at halftime.

This will be Ball St.'s first road game in a month, and it also happens to be Western Michigan's own homecoming game. My whipping boys, Northern Illinois, gave the Broncos everything they could handle last week, but Western Michigan still came out with a MAC road win, 17-13, with their particular blend of field-position, time-of-possession offense, solid punting and good special teams.

When you analyze these two defenses, you see two teams who struggle to stop the run. BSU allows 218 a game on the ground, while WMU allows 210 (though that number includes 316 given up to West Virginia). The difference, of course, is that one of these offenses is equipped to take advantage of that deficiency, with Bonds and West, and the other is missing its lead tailback.

I also like the fact that the Broncos control their own destiny in the MAC West; they're 2-0 in their division, while BSU is 1-1, after losing by 20 points to the powerhouse offense of Central Michigan. WMU versus CMU, I think, will prove to be the game that decides this division (it'll be a Tuesday-night ESPN game); this game sets up well for WMU to inch closer to that matchup.

The Broncos topped BSU in Muncie last year, 41-27, and in the process forced Nate Davis to the bench because he threw three interceptions in his first eight passes. I like that WMU is 7-3 against the spread in its last 10 as an underdog (and I'm not so crazy about the fact that BSU is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games, or the fact that they played an overrated Nebraska team so tough in Lincoln, losing just 41-40).

And I like the emotion of homecoming for a difficult conference game. I'd have probably made WMU a three-point favorite here, so I'll hope for some crummy weather, and take the points.

Free Pick: Western Michigan +1½ (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Wildcats and Eagles Over 59

Game Time: 10/19/2007 07:00 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

Just the second meeting between the two schools, look for this one to be far different than the first defensive battle. Back the Over when Northwestern goes to Eastern Michigan.

These clubs have met only once, and that matchup came last year when the Northwestern Wildcats upended the Eastern Michigan Eagles as 17-point home chalk, 14-6. EMU had its opportunities to win the game, but turned the ball over on their final two drives of the game. This looks to be a much different type of battle this time around as both offenses come into this game firing on all cylinders.

Northwestern has combined to score 97 points the last two weeks (including OT), while the Eagles put 64 combined on the board vs. Michigan and Ohio the last two weeks. Eagles QB Andy Schmitt completed 20 of 28 passes last week for 210 yards and four touchdowns. Wildcats QB C.J. Bacher also comes into this game on fire throwing for a combined 990 yards and nine touchdowns the last two weeks vs. Michigan State and Minnesota. Both guys stand to have big nights once again as neither stop unit should be able to limit them.

Northwestern's defense has surrendered 419 total YPG and 32 PPG to its first seven opponents this year, and has only secured five sacks while forcing a meager seven turnovers. That might not get the job done tonight against an Eastern Michigan offense that seems to have found itself the last couple weeks. That being said, the Eagles defense has been ripped through as well, surrendering 410 total YPG and 30 PPG. Northwestern’s offense shouldn’t have much of a problem executing its attack.

With this game taking on a bowl atmosphere being played at a neutral field, I expect both offenses to dictate the tempo here and combine to go over this posted number.

Free Pick: Northwestern-Eastern Michigan Over 59

[Willie Bee]

Back the Nevada Wolf Pack (-7) at Utah State Aggies

Game Time: 10/20/2007 03:05 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

Off their wild and record-setting 4 OT loss to Boise State, Nevada should come away the victors this Saturday afternoon when the Wolf Pack visit the Utah State Aggies.

The Nevada game against Boise State last Sunday night is already an 'instant classic.' It truly was one of the best college football games you'll ever see and despite the four overtime loss to the Broncos, the Wolf Pack have gained a new level of respect.

The big question surrounding Nevada as they face Utah State is do the Wolfpack have enough left in the tank physically and emotionally to handle the Aggies? The extra plays combined with a Sunday night game and a short week are going to make for a tough turnaround. If Nevada is ready, Utah State will have their hands full trying to keep up with freshman quarterback Colin Kaepernick.

Making his first start, Kaepernick was outstanding against Boise State. He completed 11-of-26 passes for 243 yards and three touchdowns, adding 14 carries, mostly on designed keepers, for 177 yards and two more touchdowns. Add running back Luke Lippincott to the mix (551 yards and seven touchdowns), and the defensively challenged Aggies could be in for a long day.

Free Pick: Nevada -7

[Willie Bee]

Nab Navy (+3) vs. Wake Forest

Game Time: 10/20/2007 01:00 PM -
By: Larry Cook | procappers.com

With a 14-5 record as the underdog in their last 19 along with their stout rush offense, the Navy Midshipmen are the best play Saturday afternoon hosting the Demon Deacons.

Navy catching points at home is a mistake by the oddsmakers this Saturday against Wake Forest. Teams just can’t seem to adjust to the option offense that Navy runs. One week of practice just isn’t enough and Wake Forest will fall victim to the Midshipmen rushing attack once again this weekend.

Navy (4-2) is averaging 376 rushing yards at home while Wake Forest (4-2) is rushing for just 59 yards on the road. The Demon Deacons are 7-19 against the spread in their last 26 games as a favorite. Navy is 14-5 against the spread in their last 19 games as an underdog.

The Midshipmen at 6-1 against the spread in their last seven meetings with ACC opponents. Bet Navy Saturday.

Free Pick: Navy +3 (-110)

[onlooker]

Mike Rose I am on the UNDER 59 in that Northwestern vs Eastern Michigan game.

[tab]

Back the Nevada Wolf Pack (-7) at Utah State Aggies

Game Time: 10/20/2007 03:05 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

Off their wild and record-setting 4 OT loss to Boise State, Nevada should come away the victors this Saturday afternoon when the Wolf Pack visit the Utah State Aggies.

The Nevada game against Boise State last Sunday night is already an 'instant classic.' It truly was one of the best college football games you'll ever see and despite the four overtime loss to the Broncos, the Wolf Pack have gained a new level of respect.

The big question surrounding Nevada as they face Utah State is do the Wolfpack have enough left in the tank physically and emotionally to handle the Aggies? The extra plays combined with a Sunday night game and a short week are going to make for a tough turnaround. If Nevada is ready, Utah State will have their hands full trying to keep up with freshman quarterback Colin Kaepernick.

Making his first start, Kaepernick was outstanding against Boise State. He completed 11-of-26 passes for 243 yards and three touchdowns, adding 14 carries, mostly on designed keepers, for 177 yards and two more touchdowns. Add running back Luke Lippincott to the mix (551 yards and seven touchdowns), and the defensively challenged Aggies could be in for a long day.

Free Pick: Nevada -7

Utah State will keep it close and probably win the game out right. Too many points for Nevada to cover and I question their defense. Dont fall for this trap game and these guys that give free picks will trap you. Be care ful and take the 7 points. And Nevada is coming off a road cover at Boise State and they will not cover this spread.

[tab]

Nab Navy (+3) vs. Wake Forest

Game Time: 10/20/2007 01:00 PM -
By: Larry Cook | procappers.com

With a 14-5 record as the underdog in their last 19 along with their stout rush offense, the Navy Midshipmen are the best play Saturday afternoon hosting the Demon Deacons.

Navy catching points at home is a mistake by the oddsmakers this Saturday against Wake Forest. Teams just can’t seem to adjust to the option offense that Navy runs. One week of practice just isn’t enough and Wake Forest will fall victim to the Midshipmen rushing attack once again this weekend.

Navy (4-2) is averaging 376 rushing yards at home while Wake Forest (4-2) is rushing for just 59 yards on the road. The Demon Deacons are 7-19 against the spread in their last 26 games as a favorite. Navy is 14-5 against the spread in their last 19 games as an underdog.

The Midshipmen at 6-1 against the spread in their last seven meetings with ACC opponents. Bet Navy Saturday.

Free Pick: Navy +3 (-110)

I do have to disagree and go against Navy as this spread is small. Navy is way too banged up to stop Wake Forest and Riley Skinner will have a career day against the banged up secondary of Navy. And Wake Forest has defense that is strong against the rush. Playing in the ACC, Wake Forest has played some defenses that are tough against the run. I still think that Wake Forest will contain Navy when needed but Navy will be unable to stop Wake Forest in a high scoring game.

[tab]

Utah State will keep it close and probably win the game out right. Too many points for Nevada to cover and I question their defense. Dont fall for this trap game and these guys that give free picks will trap you. Be care ful and take the 7 points. And Nevada is coming off a road cover at Boise State and they will not cover this spread.

I disagree and Utah State will win this game outright

[SportNut]

Mike Rose I am on the UNDER 59 in that Northwestern vs Eastern Michigan game.

Mike Rose was on a very bad streak couple weeks ago. I was following His Free Picks advice, Lucky never bet
on his picks.