Baylor +25' @ Kansas: Kansas has a three-game, program-defining stretch beginning the following week at Colorado, at Texas A&M, and home vs. Nebraska. I just can't see the 5-0 KU program bringing a TON of enthusiasm & respect to a game vs. a no-name Baylor program, especially after the emotional high with the KSU win last week. Should KU get ahead of the number, a backdoor cover should still be a nice possibility with a desire to keep key players fresh for the following 3. Baylor let a lot of bettors down last week, bringing a little extra value (I think) to this week's line.
Louisville +10' @ Cincinnati: The national spotlight is officially on Cincinnati, and officially off the once-touted Cardinals. Getting Louisville out on the road should take a little pressure off the team, I think. Who can doubt Louisville's ability to move the ball and put up points? While the Cards' defense is abyssmal, I can't help but feel they can match Cincy point-for-point. Will Cincy really accord the Louisville defense ANY respect? I doubt it, and maybe they won't need to, but to lay 10' against a team as offensively prolific as the Cards, the Cincy offense better score EVERY time they have the ball. Unless the Cards have completely gone in the tank mentally (I doubt it, with NFL-caliber Brohm's future in the balance), this should be a close one.
LSU -9' @ Kentucky: There is no more dominating of a defense in all the land than with LSU, and their athleticism is off-the-charts. Of course, none of that is news to anyone -- we're talking about the number 1 team. But in my mind, Kentucky just isn't as good as people want to believe. A nice win at Arkansas does not a season make, and remember that Arkansas move the ball well in that game. UK hasn't seen a defense even close to this caliber, and in last year's game, UK was dominated in all phases. Yes, UK has made some nice strides, but LSU (in my mind) is the only real-deal in the college game this year. UK could play lights out, and still be more than a TD off of this number. I'll take my chances.
Colorado +5' @ Kansas State: This shold be a hard-fought & tough game, but CU is clearly at an all-time confidence high since Hawkins' arrival. The lows have been horrible over the last year and a half, but I really feel that the team has come to finally understand the offensive scheme, giving a solid defense a little less time on the field. KSU creamed Colorado in Boulder last year, and combining that with a tough loss vs. in-state rival KU last week, the psychological intangibles clearly favor the Buffs. A lot of people got to see CU on national TV vs. ASU & FSU, and they looked terrible in those games. While OU gave Colorado a route back into that upset 2 weeks ago, not all teams would have seized & capitalized upon those opportunities like the Buffs did. To me, Colorado is a good value for another couple weeks, and I'm doubting that KSU would be laying 5' if folks didn't attach so much value to their beat-down of Texas two weeks ago. I'll take the points in what I deem to be, at worst (from the CU perspective), a coin-flip game.
Air Force +3' @ Colorado State: AFA is a little difficult to figure out, getting drilled at BYU & Navy, but looking solid in all other game. This is a tough in-state rivalry that is always entertaining. I think everyone expects more from CSU than what they've been -- an 0-5 team -- and everyone expects them to finally break out with win, especially at home. They had their shot to get back some confidence vs. an inferior SDSU team last week, and missed that opportunity. With confidence waning, I like the Falcons in a nail-biter.
With you on Colorado. I am not so sure about LSU -9. True they are much better but UK is playing much better this year and with the type of offense they feature, they could easily backdoor this game. UK was high on my list, but was hoping for +10 or better.
I also lean toward Baylor and Louisville but not strong enough to play them.
I think this is a great spot for Baylor but they are just putrid offensively. KU has shown a propensity to annihilate weaker teams this year and consider this a revenge game for them...i think they put the pedal to the metal this week against Baylor. I still think there is going to be a great time to fade KU but now just is not the time. Not with a team like Baylor.
UL...not sure what to think. Their defense is soooooo bad I can't back them. Losing outright to a MWC team at home as -14.5 chalk is a very bad sign. This may be one of those teams that packs it in early when you consider they went from a top 10 team contending for the conference and national title to losing to a rival, to dropping out of the top 25, losing as a 38 pt favorite, out of contention for the league title, pretty much out of the pic for a bowl game....not a team I am interested in backing right now.
Like KU, there will be a good time to bet against UC, but now is not the time....not with a team like UL. I like your thinking though. You have the right idea but may be a week or two ahead right now.
rather than play AFA due to CSU's inept performance vs SDST last week i am going the other way by taking utah -13' over SDST as my best bet in what should be a shutout somewhere in the neighborhood of 27-0 or 34-0
Dan Hawkins is a superb coach. He built the powerhouse at Boise State, a completely unlikely place for a school to make a claim for the national football championship. He went 53-11 at Boise State before accepting the head coaching position at Colorado in December 2005. He will eventually get traction at CU, and that may be happening a little earlier than anyone expected (me included). If that is so, there is going to be some good value in betting on the Buffs for a few weeks, before people notice that they are at the top of the standings in the Big 12 North.
Cody Hawkins, the coach's son, is CU's QB. He is a redshirt freshman. He is a winner. Here's a gee-wiz factoid: from Pop Warner in sixth grade through his senior year of high school, Cody's teams were 59-0 in games in which he started at QB. You have not heard the last of Cody Hawkins. The father-son thing can be magical (long ago I was on such a team).
I am considering a modest play on the Buffs this week, betting that the good times, football-wise (believe me, they never went away otherwise), have returned to Boulder.
Last edited by regularguy; 10-10-07 at 12:40 PM.
Reason: oh ... I don't know ....
I actually feel they finally got the line right with Cinncy. Cardinals won't be ready for that home sell out crowd just like West Virgina wasn't read against USF. GL
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Five Plays on Saturday
Reply With Quote
