It PAINS me to say, but Take Oklahoma State +6.5 vs A&M.
Fact of the matter is that A&Ms defense is terrible. Its hidden by the fact that the offense is always on the field with their dominant running game (you saw what happened when their running game is not on the field; Did you watch the Miami game), but OSU run-defense is not bad at all. They currently rank at 25th in the nation (although its padded a bit because Texas Tech, their last opponent, doesnt run the ball).
Oklahoma States big weakness is pass defense. They are absolutely terrible at stopping the pass, ranking 117 in pass defense (again its worse because all Texas Tech does it pass the ball). Here is why it doesnt matter.. Texas A&Ms passing offense is terrible. Terrible.
Coach Fran has been in the hot seat since last year, because this team has no passing game. The wide recievers are slow, inconsistent and never get open and McGee, the QB, stares down recievers and is incomfortable in the pocket. Hes an incredible leader and an excellent runner, but so-so passer.
Consider that in about 15 starts, McGee's career high in passing is 244 which is so uncommon.
A&Ms passing game consists of 3 yard slants & 5 yard outs. They are a run it down your throat with Jorvorskie Lane, Option, Zone-Read, Outside Pitch to Mike Goodson team. They dont pass the ball. Combine a running game with an bad defense and you get 0 blowouts. Subtract Baylor which is terrible and A&M has 0 blowout wins vs Big 12 opponents since 2005.
The Only wins by more than 6 points in the McGee era are vs. Citadel, 3 bad Lousiana teams (Louisana Lafayette, LA-Tech, & Lousiana Monroe), Baylor, and Montanta State.
If its a close game, I dont trust Matt Szymanski to win it because he has about a 50% kicking percentage.
I see a close game decided by a field goal or an outright OSU win.
If you could get OSU in a teaser, I think you're golden.
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Mv09s Bet of the Week: OSU vs A&M
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