I didn't expect to be a homer (playing Purdue) but the line is about a touchdown lower than I expected and there is still plenty of bets coming in on ND. To me it was simple...could Notre Dame beat Toledo, Central Michigan, or Minnesota? My answer to that was no. Also add in the fact that Purdue has given up one meaningful TD (against Toledo) while a game was still in doubt. They've come out in a very vanilla zone D in the 2nd half two straight weeks. I'm betting that they keep the pressure on ND for at least 3 Qtrs and even if they don't Notre Dame doesn't have the air attack to take advantage. Last week I thought Purdue -7 (1st Half) was the way to play it but this week the value is in the full game. Hard to imagine Tiller letting off the gas here.
Take the the Irish players and put on Duke uniforms and I think you'd have a line closer to 30. Add in the fact that Purdue's been waiting to make Weiss eat his intelligent statement that at Notre Dame "the days of losing to the Purdue's of the world are over" and I doubt you have to worry about Purdue looking ahead to the real game next Saturday night.
Biggest thing I was worried about here was some bad weather to keep the game ugly and the Purdue win closer to 20 but as of now the forecast is for a high of 77 with no reports of high wind.
There is your homer preview of the week. Good luck
Last edited by Wassymac; 09-27-07 at 09:32 AM.
Reason: Added Oregon St
Would have fared much better with ML bets this week...4 outright wins for the dogs. Congrats to Irish backers...a pile of blown opportunities in the 1st half and then some amazing plays by that #23 character of the Irish on 4th downs. I tip my cap as I read that 2nd half entirely wrong.
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Week 5 (YTD 14-12 -0.25)
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