Originally Posted by
hhsilver
I appreciate your sharing of your work. But I have some problems with the way you are handling line changes. You posted your recommended plays with the original lines but without the %'s, which are still available, of course, by scrolling back to your first post.
By the time you posted on Sat morn, your lines for Penn st, Vand, E Mich, NW, Nebr, among others maybe, were not close to the current lines.
Here are some from your original post.
Nevada @ Northwestern (-7) ............54.66%
Nebraska (-6.5) @ Wake Forest.........61.50%
Alabama @ Vanderbilt (+5.5) ............57.64%
Ball St @ Eastern Michigan (+5.5) ......57.64%
South Carolina @ Georgia (-5.5) .........54.94%
Notre Dame @ Penn St (-14) .............56.24%
How could you say maybe for Penn St at -17.5 when it barely qualifies at -14. NW wasn't even at 55% at -7 and by Sat they were -10, yet you still have it in your final list. Vandy, as you mention, and E Mich just squeeze in at just above 55%. Am I correct that you use 55% as the cutoff? ( i think I remember that from your original writeup)
And what about Georgia? If they were 54.9% at -5.5, why weren't they a play at -3.5? Do you only consider teams that are plays with respect to the early lines making it impossible for a "non-play" to become a play due to a line change?
Do you make all your bets early? As you said, some lines move in your favor - some don't. This makes me wonder about the accuracy of your accounting. It would help if you kept the original %'s with your post of recommended plays.
I'm not sure I'll buy into what you're doing, but it's interesting to follow your work. thanks