[babaoriley]

Mainly wanting to keep track of my own picks on here, but I've taken the last couple of weeks of baseball off to focus on some college football... Let's see what happens with a lot of chalk (usually a terrible thing)...
2*TCU -21
2* UTexas -38
1* Georgia -6.5
1* Cal -6

And I'll be honest, I've never bet a 46 point favorite, but USC is getting some attention from me. We'll see... 46 is ludicrous, but then again, so is laying 38 with a banged up Texas team. I really wanted to roll with UCF +8, but I'm going straight chalk on those 4. Best of luck out there. Nice to see the NCAA peeps (and good old pags) back.

[louisvillekid]

it's worth laying the points on some games, if you know the opponent is inferior. last night my guy made me give 55 on UofL, but i knew it would be probably 60 or 70 to nothing, i was close , 73-10

[pags11]

GL baba...

[bigboydan]

Everyone I know is on Cal this week, and so I'm I Baba. However I can't say I'm fond of your Georgia play though, because I am Liking OSU in that game personally.

[crackerjack]

Nice card, but next week, look for some dogs. Some of the best cappers on this site make a lot of money finding value in the underdogs. So far this season, by my count, the favorites are 5-2.

[pokernut9999]

Georgia never lost to non conference team in regular season under Richt, plus 10 straight season openers.

Only problem they never seem to beat teams bad. Could be close game. I went against them 2 years ago thinking Boise St. would give the good game and they blow them out. I am big Ga fan and always lose win I go against them. May just take over here and hope for shootout.

[babaoriley]

GL baba...

Hey pags. Nice to have you back, chief. Well, UTexas did my card in, though if USC can cover 46.5 I'll gain 1 more unit... As I posted in another thread:
As a UT alum, I can say that was one of the worst performances by a UT squad in a long time... Look for them to be undervalued next game though. I'm doubling up on UT vs/ a very good (overvalued) TCU team. This was vanilla UT. Keep that in mind when you feel TCU has value. They don't. I'll put my money where my mouth is.

Oh, and I did tail Pags on every one of his bets except Houston and LSU. I would've broke even on those two, so...

Bottom Line: My biggest play should have been TCU. Keeping in mind the TCU vs. UT factor, I should have assumed that Brown and co. wouldn't want to give TCU anything to analyze in the film room, but damn, what a piss poor showing... I'm doubling up on UT if the price is right against TCU. If the price gets REALLY RIGHT, I'll triple up. BOL to all of you.

I'm in Spanish Bay/Pebble Beach (anniversary w/ the Mrs.) so I missed most of the fireworks today (followed the UT game through a series of phone calls from and to friends), but I can't wait to watch the ESPN Classic replay of the Michigan game... Astounding.

[babaoriley]

OK, so lost 2* on a predictably vanilla UT team *slams head against table repeatedly* and 1* on an ill-advised last minute addition of a 46.5 point fav in USC . Took 2* off TCU, and 1 each on GA and Cal. So all that fuss, and I ended up one whole unit ahead (well, almost).

2007 record: 3-2 +.85 Units

Working on my card for week 2, though rest assured UT -9 is on my card (and nothing today or tomorrow). Also riding the coattails of the same 3-team teaser (10 points) that IMG stated. OU, UTex, UTenn... Just not sure how much I'm playing.

Hopefully, I'll have more time to look into the high profile games tonight and tomorrow, now that I'm back from vacation where the Mrs. had a fairly strict "no computer" rule (it was our first anniversary so I guess that's reason enough)... And I'm trying to stay away from reading all the board picks... Too much influence...

[gridironguy]

Nice job in Week 1, baba

[babaoriley]

would've been nicer if I would have taken the "Mack Brown goes vanilla to prevent TCU from getting quality scouting" angle into consideration. Also, that USC -46.5 bet was one of the worst bets I've ever made in my life. I was up 1.9 units but tried to squeeze out another unit out of a 46+ point favorite... Just foolish...

[gridironguy]

would've been nicer if I would have taken the "Mack Brown goes vanilla to prevent TCU from getting quality scouting" angle into consideration. Also, that USC -46.5 bet was one of the worst bets I've ever made in my life. I was up 1.9 units but tried to squeeze out another unit out of a 46+ point favorite... Just foolish...

Texas does not have the history of going vanilla as they typically pound these types of teams, so i think the low score has more to do with the team being disinterested than going vanilla. Missing WR's and a young D did not help either.

Arkie State has been a solid team under Steve Roberts

[babaoriley]

Texas does not have the history of going vanilla as they typically pound these types of teams, so i think the low score has more to do with the team being disinterested than going vanilla. Missing WR's and a young D did not help either.

Arkie State has been a solid team under Steve Roberts

I've watched the replay of that damn game twice with tivo magic (replaying crucial plays and what-not) and I think it was a very uninspired performance, but a very vanilla gameplan, which was compounded by offensive blunders. Texas usually doesn't go the way of the vanilla, but this TCU game is really, REALLY being built up. TCU's D is troublesome, but UT showed off that same horizontal running attack that killed them down the stretch last year (which truly is the main culprit behind the running woes as they lead to about 10 times as many -2 to +2 gains as they do breakouts. Now, I'll come back on here and eat all the crow I can muster if Texas doesn't attempt to run the ball vertically, instead of trying to stretch every damn play outside. Mack has had damn near a year to work out the inefficiencies in the running game (less horizontal, more vertical= less 2nd and 10's, more 2nd and 6's while wearing down that D-line of TCU and opening up the possibility that a stretch play may actually work--or a WR reverse or any number or trick plays that can occur when a tired D has been beaten into submission through the middle. Poor LB playing is/has been/ and may very well continue to be the absolute achilles of this team. They simply must do a better job all around. And don't get me started on the secondary. For a team that turned out three NFL-quality DB's last year (Mike Griffin, Aaron Ross, and Terrell Brown) and 2 the year before that (Mike Huff and Cedric Griffin), UT sure has been susceptible to getting thrown on. New DC Akina better step it up because right now, he's not exactly an upgrade for Chizik. Now that I've dissected UT's team (may I mention that Bobino, Killebrew, Keenan Robinson if given the chance are all capable LB's, and our front four of Okam, Lokey, Houston, and Lewis are even better than TCU's vaunted front 4). Now let's look at TCU...
-TCU (also playing semi-vanilla) managed just 4 ypc against Baylor and converted 3 of 15 3rd downs...
-Questions at QB (Dalton is a redshirt-FR making his second start) and RB (starting TB Brown is 'doubtful') make a seemingly impotent offense just downright offensive... They'll have trouble scoring and I'll set the bar at 14-17 (assuming they get a key TO or 3)...
-All this talk about the 5-0 record against Big XII opponents... Come off it, already. Three of those wins were against Baylor, Baylor, and Iowa st. They did beat a feisty Texas Tech team and an undermanned OU team (remember that OU lost a couple starters due that whole car dealership scandal before that game).
Regardless, this is Texas in Austin coming off an embarrassing performance, against a team that truly lacks an offensive identity. The passing game should be the difference for the Horns, and they really have to get the ball to TE Finley... the mental mistakes need to quit (limit the TO's and for god's sake NO PERSONAL FOULS). I think Texas wins this one 24-10 or so...