Among college football teams in 2006 were many who either won and lost by wide margins or had a season full of close calls either as victors or the defeated. How much of that will have a bearing on 2007?
Sometimes handicapping a college football card can be as easy as 1-2-3. Or, in the case of some teams, 10, 20 or 30. Let me explain, if I may.
College Football Margin Leaders
While examining results from last year’s football season, it became apparent that some teams made a habit of either chewing up, or being chewed up, in games throughout the year. That is, once a team had an opponent down they continued to step on them until the final gun had sounded. Vice versa, when teams were being beaten on, some tossed in the towel early and often.
Here is a list of teams that won or lost five games or more by substantial margins during the 2006 season. Check them out.
* Arkansas St: all six losses by 15 or more points
* BYU: 10/11 wins by 14 or more points
* Idaho: all eight losses by double digits (ave loss 32 ppg)
* Iowa St: all eight losses by double digits
* Kansas State: all six losses by 14 or more points
* La Monroe: all four wins by 18 or more points
* Mid Tenn St: six of seven wins by 14 or more points
* Missouri: all eight wins by double digits
* Nevada: all eight wins by double digits (8-0 ATS)
* N Mexico St: all four wins by 15 or more points
* Notre Dame: all three losses by 20 or more points
* Ohio U: all five losses by double digits (0-5 ATS)
* Pittsburgh: all six wins by double digits; five of six losses by double digits
* SMU: five of six wins by double digits
* Temple: 10/11 losses by double digits (ave loss 34.5 ppg)
* Tulsa: seven of eight wins by double digits
* UCLA: six of seven wins by double digits
* Utah: seven of eight wins by 12 or more points
* Utah St: 10/11 losses by 13 or more points (ave loss > 30 ppg)
* Va Tech: nine of 10 wins by 16 or more points
* Wake Forest: all three losses by double digits
Notice Pittsburgh’s propensity for either winning or losing games by large margins. It will be interesting to see if the same holds true for the Panthers in Year Two of the Dave Wannstedt experiment.
On the flip side of the ledger were a dozen teams that won or lost five games or more by close-call margins of seven or less points during the 2006 season. They were:
* Air Force: five of eight losses by 7 points or less
* Boston College: all three losses by 7 points or less
* BYU: both losses by 7 points or less
* Florida Intl: five of 12 losses by 7 points or less
* Florida St: five of six losses by 7 points or less
* Iowa St: all four wins by 6 points or less
* La Monroe: five of eight losses by 5 points or less
* Maryland: six of nine wins by 6 points or less
* Memphis: five of 10 losses by 7 points or less
* Miami (OH): five of 10 losses by 7 points or less
* NC State: six of nine losses by 7 points or less, 7 of 9 by 8 points or less
* UAB: five of nine losses by 7 points or less
Conclusion: Keep an eye on the teams that suffered an abundance of close-call losses last season. A big play here, or a turnover there, and their season would likely have taken on a whole new complexion.
On the other side, keep track of teams who lose, or win games, by large double-digit margins. If they are the same cast of characters that appeared on last year’s list it might well be a personality of the team, or its coach.
Remember, when it comes to handicapping, forewarned is forearmed.
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College Football Margin Leaders
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