i know we've had a bunch of these in the past, so almost nothing is new
obviously you have the conference records. but they jump around... pac 12 has been bad last 2 seasons i think... i will post them
my old way of thinking (which worked years ago):
FADE teams that overachieved significantly on the season (a few weeks off kills their momentum, opposing coaches have time to figure things out
FADE teams from big conferences that had so-so years, augemented by nfl prospects.. they don't care about the game, it's like an exhibition.
LONG teams that are very excited to be there........... but not the overachieve so much they are now playing a team at a much higher level.
more recent systems i've seen on here,
BASIS: run yards........... lots of different ways to do it, but usually the better running play team (might look at both offense and defense)..... run dominance too. i.e. rushing oriented offense.... LONG better rushing team or more rushing dominant......... i think the idea is running is so easy to do after a long layoff and not that much focussed practice.
i haven't seen this mentioned before..... but i would assume the opposite would apply... i.e. underweight passing, either good offense or poor defense.
anyone know the code for bowl games...... i can sort of approximate it on sports database... i think it might be "bowl game". imagine that.
Big dogs pre new yrs day games are solid. 7+ pt dogs that are good running teams another good one. Teams off 3 straight losses is solid, particularly if a dog
Dogs before Christmas, favorites after Chirstmas. Thqt is the only system that I have seen with a reasonable amount of success, but that is not always the case. I am not sure about this Bowl season. As far as any other system, there is NO system that can tell you which team wants to play and which team wants to party. Now some of these games seem pretty obvious. Ohio State is -6 to 6 1/2 against Washington in the Rose Bowl. It should be -17. Not only do they have better personnel overall, but they have an extra incentive going for them. It is Urban's first Rose Bowl Game and his last with Ohio State.
first glance though.... big running teams (run/pass mix) like the 3 service academies, GT and GSo (SDSU) are good ATS in bowls.....big pass teams likes WV, TT, WV are poor ATS in bowl games.... those classifications work both quant-wise and my own subjective thoughts. one team i thought was passing oriented was OKS but numbers don't really bear it out.
next layer of running is a bit mixed (not the opposite of those top running teams,just more like 50/50)... next layer of passing is consistent (duke, wk?).....
this is good as this is pretty much an "evergreen" system (i.e. same teams every year).....
i'm going to work on rushing differential model on killersports.com... that will give different teams every year.
big daddy, thx for the xmas model. i had forgotten about that one.
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creating a bowl game system
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