[Hman]

Early Week 1 college football value bets


Phil Steele

ESPN INSIDER

Week 1 of the college football season is less than a month away, but the numbers have been out on the contests for some time. I will have my top seven or eight plays for Week 1 in the days before the games kick off, but it never hurts to get an early start.

Here are five early selections on the Week 1 games. Play these games now, as a month's time might leave the lines less favorable.

Note: All odds are via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 3.

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Northwestern Wildcats at Purdue Boilermakers (-3.5)

Last season, Northwestern faced Purdue after three straight overtime wins. The Wildcats led 20-0 late in the first half and won 23-13 as a 4.5-point home favorite. The last time the team was at Purdue, Northwestern rolled 45-17 with 605 yards of offense. The Boilermakers lose nine of their top 12 tacklers and are weaker on defense this season. Northwestern quarterback Clayton Thorson should be back after ACL surgery a season ago. The Wildcats are No. 25 on my Experience Chart and have seven starters back on defense, including linebacker Paddy Fisher. The Wildcats went 3-1 in the Big Ten on the road last year, only losing at Wisconsin. I feel they are the stronger team, and I will call for the Wildcats in a close one. Right now, you get Northwestern as a 3.5-point underdog, and that half point could be huge.

ATS pick: Northwestern +3.5

Army Black Knights at Duke Blue Devils (-13.5)

Duke has held Army to 168, 214 and 268 total yards in their last three matchups, as Blue Devils head coach David Cutcliffe usually does well versus the option. Duke also benefits from extra practice time working on defending the option leading into Week 1 and will be playing with revenge in mind from last years' 21-16 upset loss at West Point in November. Duke has 15 returning starters and had four net close losses last year, so it was actually four plays away from being 11-2. The Blue Devils are way under the radar. There is value here with Duke laying under two touchdowns, so get this one now before the number rises.


ATS pick: Duke -13.5

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Vanderbilt Commodores (-4.5)

Vanderbilt is 2-6 in home openers since 2010 (both wins against FCS teams). It has won three straight games versus Middle Tennessee since 2015, including last season's 28-6 win. In 2016, Middle Tennessee had a 495-344 yard edge at Vanderbilt, but lost 47-24. The Blue Raiders return quarterback Brent Stockstill, and with 17 returning starters, they are No. 11 on my Experience Chart. Vanderbilt has quarterback Kyle Shurmur back, but is only No. 58 in experience. Derrick Mason is just 4-8 ATS as a home favorite, and the visitor is actually 5-1 outright in this series dating back to 2001. Thus, I will call for Middle Tennessee to pull the upset.

ATS pick: Middle Tennessee +4.5

UT San Antonio Roadrunners at Arizona State Sun Devils (-18.5)

UTSA is just No. 128 on my Experience Chart, and its young team is traveling to a tough environment. Arizona State, meanwhile, is No. 40 on my Experience Chart and has Manny Wilkins back at quarterback and some solid replacements at running back. Both teams finished the 2017 regular season at 6-6, but the Roadrunners did not get the benefit of bowl practices. UTSA also will be without stud defensive end Marcus Davenport, who left for the NFL (first-round pick, New Orleans Saints). The Sun Devils have won 19 straight home openers (not including neutral sites in which they were the home team) by an average of 31 points per game. Expectations are low for them, so they will be out to prove something in Herm Edwards' debut.

ATS pick: Arizona State -18.5

Virginia Tech Hokies at Florida State Seminoles (-6)

Last year, with quarterback Deondre Francois as the starter, Florida State opened up No. 2 in the country. But Francois was out for the year after Week 1 versus Alabama. Florida State only has 12 returning starters, but this is the most talent Willie Taggart has ever had to work with, and the Seminoles are a hungry team. Virginia Tech is just No. 92 on my current Experience Chart and have not traveled to Tallahassee since 2008. It has a very young defense this season, and it got even younger this offseason with the Hokies losing three projected starters. Tech has faced one team on the road that finished the season ranked in head coach Justin Fuente's two years, and it lost that game at Miami 28-10 a season ago. Grab the Seminoles now before the line goes over a touchdown.

ATS pick: Florida State -6

[gojetsgomoxies]

like the NW and MTSU. would take other side of the 3 others... i like the Army and UTSA alot ........... not much of an opinion on the VT

[Mike2332]

I like Duke a lot.........Duke has played Army each of the last 3 seasons and Army has only AVG. 8 points per game........Duke HC Cutcliffe has that Army option figured out........Duke also has 8 starters on defense returning including 6 out of 7 of last years lead tacklers.......Army only returns 3 starters on offense and they lose their QB Bradshaw who rushed for 1750 YDS last season.............Looks to be a tough 1st game for Army

[gojetsgomoxies]

looking around the internet. VT lost alot of defensive starters from last year AND THEN 2 defensive starters were suspended or dismissed from the program.... so that's VT's defense down a whole bunch of players somewhat unexpectedly

[gojetsgomoxies]

so i looked into VT D unexpected losses........ MLB Mook Reynolds, CB Adonis Alexander. both played alot last year and were expected to be key players this year. also, Webb, important JC CB, ruptured achiles. not really a loss relative to last year's D but another FR or Soph probably have to step up in the back 7......... AND NOTE, this is all AFTER a whole bunch of defensive starters left as seniors or NFL draft.

[gojetsgomoxies]

sorry, didn't realize phil steele mentioned the 3 unexpected losses