Best 2018 college football win total bets


Phil Steele
ESPN INSIDER


College football season win totals are a good way to gauge the market and Las Vegas' expectations for teams.

Below is a look at my top eight early-season win total plays for the 2018 college football season.

Note: I have the current lines (July 31) from both the South Point Las Vegas Sportsbook and Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, and I will use the best spot to place your wager.
North Carolina Tar Heels: Over 5.5 wins at South Point



North Carolina was bowl-eligible in each of Larry Fedora's first five seasons. When I talked to Fedora this spring, we agreed that if it could go wrong, it went wrong last season, as the Heels plummeted to 3-9. This year, all the signs are pointing up. The Heels were No. 112 on my Experience Chart in 2017 and had to replace quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who was the No. 2 overall pick and started for the Chicago Bears as a rookie. The Heels also had to replace their top four rushers and top wide receivers, with three of them being drafted. In 2018, however, two quarterbacks with starting experience return, as do their top seven rushers and top wide receiver. The defense also has 13 of the top 18 tacklers back. The schedule is easier, as North Carolina avoids my top four teams out of the Atlantic division, and four of their six road opponents had losing records last season. North Carolina was 19-8 in 2015 and 2016 combined, and Fedora did not forget how to coach overnight. I have them favored in eight or nine games this season.


Boston College Eagles: Over 6 wins at South Point

Steve Addazio finished 7-6 in four of his five seasons, three times with seven regular-season wins. This is by far the best team he has fielded. The Eagles opened just 2-4 last season, but running back AJ Dillon took over in the second half of the season and rushed for 1,589 yards despite just four starts, helping Boston College finish the regular season 5-1. Boston College has Dillon returning as a sophomore, and he will run behind an offensive line that returns all five starters. I rate them as the sixth-best offensive line in the country. This is also the best receiving corps Addazio has fielded with the Eagles. Additionally, they have a veteran quarterback in Anthony Brown and my No. 19-rated defense in the country. I have Boston College favored in eight games with two toss-ups, making over 6 wins a must-play.


UCLA Bruins: Under 5.5 wins at Westgate

Chip Kelly had amazing success as a college coach, and he achieved double-digit wins in all four years at Oregon, with an overall record of 46-7. He takes over a UCLA team that has plenty of highly touted recruits, so I could paint a scenario for instant success.

But I look at this the other way and view this as a rebuilding year for the Bruins. Kelly has not coached in college since 2012, is changing the schemes on both offense and defense, and must learn the players' strengths and weaknesses. UCLA is No. 118 on my Experience Chart, as they lost starting quarterback Josh Rosen to the NFL and have just 12 starters back. UCLA also faces my toughest schedule in the country, as they draw Washington, Stanford and Oregon out of the Pac-12 North and Oklahoma and Fresno State in nonconference play.


Utah Utes: Over 7 wins at South Point

The Utes switched offenses last season, as Tyler Huntley was the surprise starting quarterback. He did well until being sidelined a couple of games with an injury. Running back Zack Moss had the lightbulb go on in the second half of the season and topped 1,000 yards. Both are back, and Utah goes from No. 122 on my Experience Chart in 2017 to No. 68 this season, with 14 returning starters. Seven units rank in my top groups, including my No. 1 special teams in the country. Additionally, Utah faces on the road just two Power 5 teams that finished the regular season with winning records last season (Washington State and Arizona State). I look for a nine- or 10-win season from the Utes.



Marshall Thundering Herd: Over 8 wins at South Point

Last year Marshall was my favorite play on the board. Marshall won 11 games per season from 2013-2015 but took a shocking dip to three wins in 2016. Last season, the over/under was just 5.5 wins, and the Herd won eight games. This season, Marshall has 18 returning starters, the most ever under coach Doc Holliday. While quarterback Chase Litton surprisingly left early for the NFL Draft and was not selected, his replacement, Alex Thomson, has trained with Phil Simms for two years and is an NFL draft prospect. Marshall figures to be the underdog in three or four games this season, but I have the Herd favored in 10, and they have a dominant defensive front seven.


Florida State Seminoles: Over 7.5 wins at Westgate

Last year Florida State was 5-6 and needed to reschedule the game against UL-Monroe just to keep the bowl streak alive. Upon closer inspection, the Seminoles had three close losses. Miami got a 23-yard touchdown pass with six seconds left to win. Florida State fumbled in field goal territory late versus Louisville, and the Cards drove for the game-winning field goal with five seconds left. Even in a down year, the Seminoles were at Death Valley and had the ball on the Clemson side of the field down three with 6:14 left in a misleading, 17-point loss.

Coach Willie Taggart liked the talent he inherited this spring. The Seminoles will be the underdog at Miami, at Notre Dame and home against Clemson, but I see them winning the rest of their games, and they could even steal one of those three contests. South Point has them at eight wins, and while I would still go over that number, 7.5 gives you an extra game cushion.


Virginia Tech Hokies: Under 8.5 wins at South Point and Westgate

Justin Fuente has won nine games each of his first two regular seasons, so I understand the 8.5 number. The Hokies get quarterback Josh Jackson back, but he had a 3-5 ratio over the last five games of the 2017 season. The Hokies got to nine wins because of their defense, which allowed just 14.8 points per game. That defense had seven starters back, and while most teams allowed a point for every 14.27 yards gained, Virginia Tech's defense had the good fortune of allowing a point every 21.6 yards gained. That puts them in a category with an 84 percent chance of a weaker record. Tech also drops to four returning starters, and the defense has just seven upperclassmen in the three deep and is very young. The Hokies could be underdogs at Florida State, North Carolina, Duke and Pitt and possibly at home against Notre Dame and Miami. Virginia Tech needs nine regular season wins to beat me on this one.


Arkansas State Red Wolves: Over 8.5 wins at South Point

You had to figure this one was coming, as I have the Red Wolves in my preseason top 25. Arkansas State might have been the best team in the Sun Belt last season, but it came in third in the standings, as it lost to Troy 32-25 despite a 32-14 first-down edge and 606-293 yardage edge. Quarterback Justice Hansen is back, and his receiving corps has been upgraded, as Oklahoma transfer Dahu Green and Oregon transfer Kirk Merritt were added in the offseason. Arkansas State's leading rusher from a season ago is also back in Warren Wand. The offensive line had zero returning starters last season, but this season four starters are back. The defense also has five starters back.

Although the Red Wolves face Alabama on the road, all their other road foes had losing records last season, and Arkansas State is 34-7 at home the past seven seasons. There are three premier teams in the Sun Belt, and Arkansas State hosts Appalachian State on Oct. 9 and avoids Troy in league play. I expect double-digit wins from the Red Wolves.