[bigboydan]

The Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns are once again the class of the Big 12 South Division, and their annual Red River Shootout on Oct 6 should determine the division title as well as a possible BCS berth. But will Bob Stoops' and Mack Brown's squads also finish the season as the class of the division at the betting window?



Give that man a raise.
Big 12 South Betting Preview

Not that he needed the money, but Oklahoma Sooners coach Bob Stoops was handed a cool $50,000 raise in June, making his current base salary $2.55 million per year. More importantly (and lucratively), Stoops had his contract extended two years through the end of 2013.

Consider it a just reward for a job well done. Last year, Stoops led the Sooners to the Big 12 South title at 11-3 overall (9-4-1 against the spread) with just one loss in conference play.

So how does the betting market treat the Sooners? By making the Texas Longhorns 11-10 favorites to win the South this year. Oklahoma is second at 3-2.

There may be some merit to that; the ‘Horns also suffered just three losses in 2006, and they beat their archrivals in Norman, all with freshman Colt McCoy at quarterback. Texas went on to finish the season with a higher winning margin (17.6 points) than Oklahoma (13 points). But the 'Horns are both beloved and overvalued; they went 5-7 ATS last year even after losing two-time Rose Bowl MVP Vince Young at quarterback. What kind of cash will the hated and unappreciated Sooners haul in after watching star running back Adrian Peterson move on to greener pastures?

The answer lies in the hands of DeMarco Murray. The redshirt freshman has dazzled scouts with his ability to see running lanes and dart through them. The Sooners are expected to go with a committee at tailback, but once Murray learns the ropes, he will be the committee. Given Stoops’ track record of developing players, Oklahoma should be pounding the pay window in the second half of the 2007 season; if Murray is a star right out of the box, make that the entire 2007 season.

Texas might not be such a great value. However, the Longhorns will be tough to beat straight up. McCoy has added some bulk this offseason, the better to absorb punishment with. His sophomore campaign should be well worth watching. Running back Jamaal Charles may be in his third year with the Longhorns, but he should make a sophomoric leap as well after spending his rookie season watching Young work his magic. That’ll give the Texas offense the balance it lacked in 2006.

The middle class of the Big 12 South is represented this year by the Texas A&M Aggies and the Texas Tech Red Raiders, each priced at 5-1 to win the division. The Aggies appear to be the better of the two, as they were last year when they upset the Longhorns in the last game of the regular season and posted a conference-best 8-3-1 ATS record. Nearly the entire offense returns for A&M in 2007; the defense is young, but good things are expected in Gary Darnell’s second year as coordinator.

Tech did manage to down the Aggies last year as a 3-point road dog, and their season may hinge on a Week 7 rematch, this time in Lubbock. Still, grabbing another win against A&M, let alone Texas, is one big mountain to climb for a club that has only four starters returning on offense and five on defense.

Bringing up the rear are the once-mighty Oklahoma State Cowboys at 15-2 and the perennial Big 12 doormats, the Baylor Bears, at an overly optimistic 12-1. That doesn’t mean the Bears won’t have some value for handicappers. Kent State transfer Michael Machen looks promising at quarterback, and he’ll get plenty of support from an upgraded offensive line and some added run support, a tweak Baylor is expected to make in its second year under coach Guy Morriss’ spread offense.

As for the 'Pokes, they have a beautifully balanced offense, but OSU once again has a lot of work to do on their defense if they want to put together a winning season. The Over might be worth yet another look after going 28-15 for the Cowboys over the past four years.


Big 12 South Betting Preview

[Razz]

Everyone better watch out for the Aggies this year.

[Willie Bee]

I hope your warning holds true, Razz. But the schedule isn't all that sweet with road games at Miami (Fla), Tortilla Tech, Nebraska, OU and Missouri.

[Razz]

I hope your warning holds true, Razz. But the schedule isn't all that sweet with road games at Miami (Fla), Tortilla Tech, Nebraska, OU and Missouri.

I was talking about New Mexico State.
No, seriously, the schedule is brutal, but if they had last year's schedule I'd say they were a cinch to win the Big 12. I love McGee, I think he's a darkhorse Heisman candidate, and the backs are phenomenal. There isn't a weakness anywhere on the roster really IMO, which you can't say about OU (QB) or Texas (very weak defense made even worse by losing Chizik), or anyone else in the conference obviously.

[Willie Bee]

I was talking about New Mexico State.

Well, I wish it was NM State who had our road schedule this year. I like McGee as well, really fun kid to watch. And you're probably right that this is our best collection of talent in a while. But Tortilla Tech has had our number for some time now and we haven't had much luck in Lincoln. Plus, if Missouri had a coach with an inkling of a clue last year in College Station, Missouri would've beaten us then.

I see four losses on our card rather easily this year.

[pags11]

Steven McGee is underrated...

[bigboydan]

I see your A&M boys made the pre-season top 25 poll Willie. I'm just wondering how long they will be in it this year with that schedule they have to play.

[pags11]

Holbrook is underrated too...

[bigboydan]

He's ok Pags, but I don't consider him labeled as "underrated" by any means.

[BuddyBear]

Probably TXAM and OKST have the most betting value this year. Texas and Oklahoma will be overvalued most of the year. Baylor is very bad and TTech is too unpredictable with their defense and their offense may not be as sharp this year with several key losses on offense.

In my opinion, TXAM and OKST will both have + ATS records.

[bigboydan]

Probably TXAM and OKST have the most betting value this year. Texas and Oklahoma will be overvalued most of the year. Baylor is very bad and TTech is too unpredictable with their defense and their offense may not be as sharp this year with several key losses on offense.

In my opinion, TXAM and OKST will both have + ATS records.

I would tend to agree to a certain degree double B.