1. #1
    StLouisCards
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    Season Win Totals Betting Article

    Feedback appreciated. Enjoy the read and BOL.

    Questions Looming for Young Michigan State Squad

    Oddsmakers set the Spartans' win total at 6.5 games. The Spartans lack the depth and experience to exceed the win total. Read on to find out why you should bet the 'under' and which individual Spartans' games will be most worth making a play on.''

    Introduction

    Kirk Cousins. Connor Cook. Tyler O'Connor. Notice the disjunction? A major part of Michigan State's success in recent years has been the strong play, athleticism and leadership of their quarterbacks. O'Connor was a confident leader, but he lacked consistency and competency against strong opponents and was a major reason why the Spartans went 3-9 last season. Unfortunately, the problems don't end at the quarterback position. The Spartans lack depth and experience in several key positions. They will be an exciting team in 2018. But for next season, betters would do best to capitalize on the expectation of another losing season in East Lansing.

    Offense

    Quarterback

    Brian Lewerke is hopefully going to join the list of great Michigan State quarterbacks. Head Coach Mark Dantonio loves to compare him to Kirk Cousins. He is a dual threat who possesses a strong arm and great mobility. For instance, against #2 Michigan, he was 6-for-10 with 100 yards and a touchdown and ran the ball 3 times for 24 yards. He hasn't played a lot, but in this first season playing (before he suffered a leg injury from which he has fully recovered) he did display some promise.

    Runningback

    LJ Scott deserves the attention that he received when he was recently named to the 2017 watchlist for college football's best player and for college football's best running back. Scott finished the last 6 games of last season with 4 100+ rushing yard performances. He shredded the likes of Michigan for 139 rushing yards and #2 Ohio State for 160 rushing yards.

    Offensive Line

    The optimism for the Spartans' offense ends with Scott and the promise in Lewerke. The offensive line was a mess last season and in fact much accounts for Lewerke's display of mobility--he was forced to run so often out of the pocket in order to not get sacked. The offensive line largely failed to protect its quarterback in conference play. A big reason was the poor play of then-left tackle David Beedle, who will struggle to transition to right guard this season. A redshirt freshman will start at right tackle. Overall, despite the return of the reliable senior Brian Allen at center, Michigan State lost a lot of experience. Especially the right side of the line remains a question mark for the team.

    Wide Receiving Corps

    The current wide receiving corps also has minimal experience: 5 of their 6 top receivers from last season are no longer with the team. No matter how good Lewerke and especially Scott may look, the inexperienced line and wide receiving corps may hinder the offense from getting into a rhythm and competing against conference rivals.

    Defense

    Defensive Line

    Last season saw a major regression also for Sparty's defense. The pass rush was anemic. Not a single Spartan made the Big 10 ranking of top 40 sack leaders. A few important players unexpectedly departed and current Seattle Seahawk Malik Mcdowell was plagued by injuries. This season, two players who played as true freshmen last season were dismissed due to charges of sexual assault in what has been a tumultuous offseason in East Lansing. The Spartans are set at defensive tackle with Mike Panasiuk and Raequan Williams returning from last year. The bigger questions loom in the defensive end position, even though the defensive line will have an additional coach this season. Demetrius Cooper has not only failed to live up to the hype but is trying to secure his position in the roster after undergoing off-the-field issues. Hype is buzzing around Brandon Randle,. He is a freshman, a linebacker by nature, who has also been taking reps with the defensive line and will focus on helping the pass rush as a defensive end.

    Linebackers

    The linebacking corps should be the Spartans' greatest hope for improving their pass and rush defense. They return a significant veteran presence and level of talent from last season, which will comprise the source of leadership and stability for the defense. One exception in terms of experience is Middle Linebacker Joe Bachie. He is a rising sophomore but his coaches have been very impressed with his performance in the Spring and Summer. He possesses a mixture of speed and talent that makes him a dominating athlete. Despite his youth, his reaction skills on defense evince his maturity.

    Secondary

    The pass defense was a disaster last season, so it may not seem too bad that pretty much the whole secondary is gone. The returning player with the most experience is Justin Layne, who made 5 starts as a freshman last season. But the two cornerbacks who were expected to start this season were among the departures. It is questionable whether enough talent exists in the cornerback position. It also seems doubtful, based on last season's performance, that Sparty will have even half-decent safeties.

    The Verdict

    Sparty has too many questions to inspire much optimism in this upcoming season. Even if Lewerke begins to live up to the hype this season, who will block for him and who will he throw to? Defensively, Randle and Baschie have really bright futures. But the defensive line has so much work ahead of itself in order to improve last season's anemic pass rush and the secondary seems like a hopeless cause. Even 6 wins will be tough to obtain, especially being in the Big 10. They also face some poor teams with significant talent in the wide receiving corps, meaning that even Bowling Green and Rutgers (especially in New Jersey) could pull off an upset. Look for underdogs with a solid wide receiving corps to cover against Sparty and go 'over' the game's posted team total.

    NCAAF Pick: Michigan State 'UNDER' 6.5

  2. #2
    BigdaddyQH
    BigdaddyQH
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    Nicely written. 6.5 is a tough number to crack. MSU opens with 4 straight games at home. In order to achieve 7 wins, they must win 3 out of those 4 games, two of which are against Notre Dame and Iowa. They are looking at probable losses at Michigan, Northwestern, Ohio State, and home to Penn State. This team has some skill players, but not the leadership needed to be a serious challenger in the Big 10. Dantonio also had various off field problems last year. Is his stick wearing out? I agree with UNDER 6.5.

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