I think Boise St starts off slow. Getting 17.5 in the first half for San Jose. In my Poolside betting challenge this is bet #3. Having doubts now. What are your thoughts?
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11-04-16 03:29 PM #1
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11-04-16 03:38 PM #2
I don't have an opinion, but I'm curious ... Why you think Boise St will start off slowly? And what changed since you had that thought?
Answer those questions and you may be able to find the play you like.
Good luck whatever you decide.
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11-04-16 04:28 PM #3
Well, originally I viewing totals/spread calcs and then looking at matchups. I believe SJSU's secondary can play tight and San Jose will come out strong first half. To be honest- this was more belief than numbers based.
Then I started looking at first half scoring numbers for each team and saw a high probability that Boise leads by 20 at the half.
Just wanted to read some thoughts on the teams/games in general.
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11-04-16 04:31 PM #4
i was looking at san jose 1H too but i would need a field goal more to really bite on this. i do like the way you're attacking this game though fader BOL this weekend
Originally Posted by drfader
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11-04-16 04:51 PM #5
SJSU allows 8.5 yards per pass attempt on defense. That is #120 out of 128 FBS teams. They also allow 5.54 yards per carry, which puts them at #123. SJSU is in the first year of trying to convert from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4. So the personnel isn't right for what they're doing and they're new at it anyway.
To me, the only way this stays remotely close is if Boise St. just doesn't give a shit after losing last week. I have no way to measure that, so it's a pass for me.
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11-04-16 05:16 PM #6
Wow HG, see? Theres all sorts numbers I should have double checked before I got trigger fingers on a tossup spread like this. Oh well. I will own this and be smarter in the future whatever happens
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11-04-16 05:26 PM #7
yeah helluvaguy posts some awesome stats that help. i see boise covering the entire game and covering early so i cant really see a edge in this game Originally Posted by drfader
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11-04-16 05:27 PM #8
Well, you're up 17.5 right now. Anything can happen. Originally Posted by drfader
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11-04-16 05:32 PM #9
If you like SJSU 1H take TT over 7 +120 (heritage)
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11-04-16 05:34 PM #10
do you like heritage j train? Originally Posted by JTrain
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11-04-16 05:34 PM #11
Just my $.02 worth, but one of the biggest mistakes I see folks make is looking at a stat like SJSU's average passing yards against (207) and assuming they're good against the pass. Well, one of the reasons that number is so low is because teams run all over them. But when they do throw it, they have a lot of success.
Stats like yards per play, yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per point are a lot more helpful. And even more helpful is comparing those numbers to opponents' averages. For example, SJSU allows over a yard per pass attempt more than their opponents average. Rushing is .6 yards.
All that said, I'm sure they will look like the 85 Bears tonight. Lol
Again, best of luck with your action.
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11-04-16 05:34 PM #12
Nice! Well, if I was confident I would be all over that!
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11-04-16 06:08 PM #13
Thanks for the nice words Jay. Originally Posted by JayDr3am
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11-04-16 07:04 PM #14
Hey HG thanks for the advice! So I do tend to look at yards per point for an idea of totals, but I am trying to figure out how to quantify opponent strength in that. I definitely agree that the matchup is super critical in college, given lack of parity between teams.
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11-04-16 07:06 PM #15
The credit is due! Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy
Thanks for the nice words Jay.
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11-04-16 07:12 PM #16
Like Louisville at Boston College this weekend. Numbers say itll be alot closer than spread indicates. But I would NOT want go against Loisville at this point. How do I get a better grasp onmthe matchup?
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11-04-16 07:18 PM #17
Boise State hasn't covered the last 7 on the blue turf. Handcuff that with them losing last week.
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11-04-16 07:21 PM #18
Sometimes you don't. No need to play every game. Originally Posted by drfader
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11-04-16 07:24 PM #19
look for a 1H or a 2H play.. playing it live may have some value. otherwise its a pass. Originally Posted by drfader
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11-04-16 07:41 PM #20
Originally Posted by JayDr3am
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11-04-16 08:08 PM #21
The way I look at it is that SJSU has been beaten by more than 30 points 3 times this year. Two of those times were against good running teams. The third was Iowa St and we saw how they could hang with Oklahoma last night. Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy
Just my $.02 worth, but one of the biggest mistakes I see folks make is looking at a stat like SJSU's average passing yards against (207) and assuming they're good against the pass. Well, one of the reasons that number is so low is because teams run all over them. But when they do throw it, they have a lot of success.
Stats like yards per play, yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per point are a lot more helpful. And even more helpful is comparing those numbers to opponents' averages. For example, SJSU allows over a yard per pass attempt more than their opponents average. Rushing is .6 yards.
All that said, I'm sure they will look like the 85 Bears tonight. Lol
Again, best of luck with your action.
Boise St is 1-10 ATS at home in their last 11 games. They never seem to really get up for home games which is something they will need to do in order to cover this huge spread.
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11-04-16 09:07 PM #22
My model has it as a 26-point game, but we were generally talking about the first half. The line move here is pretty much meaningless it has always been a 5 TD line. I wouldn't lay that, but I also couldn't back SJSU here. They are really, really bad. Originally Posted by QuantumLeap
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11-04-16 09:31 PM #23
So much for Boise St and slow start.....
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11-04-16 09:45 PM #24
Yeah, I can see how my comments were about the whole game. I should have said that I believe they can be applied to the 1st half as well. Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy
As far as the line movement goes, the books can move lines like this when the public is big on the favorite. That's what I'm counting on. It worked for Iowa St and UCLA last night. We'll see if it works here tonight.
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11-04-16 09:46 PM #25
I was impressed with that latest drive by SJSU. Originally Posted by drfader
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11-04-16 09:51 PM #26
I'm already starting to regret playing Boise -30
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11-04-16 09:58 PM #27
When was the last time Boise covered at home? Originally Posted by sportsfan9698
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11-04-16 10:03 PM #28
no exact date but its been week(s) Originally Posted by paco
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11-04-16 10:15 PM #29
October 3, 2015 against Hawaii. Originally Posted by JayDr3am
Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: JayDr3am
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11-04-16 10:19 PM #30
Originally Posted by JTrain
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11-04-16 10:19 PM #31
SJS is actually moving the ball. Their RB getting injured may have been the best thing to happen to them.
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11-04-16 10:21 PM #32
Very nice call. Way to squeeze a few extra bucks out. Originally Posted by JTrain
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11-04-16 10:28 PM #33
I wouldve actually done that but dont have an account there
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11-04-16 10:51 PM #34
Nice call on the 1st half SJSU.
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11-04-16 11:03 PM #35
Thank you Thank you.
Off to place bet #4
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