I'd like to leverage some of the SBR poster's wisdom on CFB.
I have "scraped" a lot of CFB stats off the internet into Excel for the 2014, 2015, & YTD 2016 CFB seasons and used some of them (e.g. YPP comparisons) to generate predictions but have not really done much better than 50/50 on games. I do not have enough time to run a regression or back-test the potentially hundreds of combinations of stats to find the right system.
Can anyone provide insight into which factors you believe are most critical and how they should be weighted? Here are the stats I have for every game over the period I mentioned. As you can see the stats are shown for each team for ALL GAMES and for RD/HOME games (depending upon if they are on the road or at home for the given week). There is a legend explaining the acronyms at the bottom.
I'd be more than happy to take your suggestions and provide results of some back-testing as time allows. If you have a system to suggest, please be relatively specific/detailed in how you think it should be used to predict scores that can be compared to the spreads.
I would have attached this in Excel format but there seems to be a problem with uploading files on SBR (error message: Exceeds 2.9GB forum limit).
Off Avg Score (all games) Off Avg Scr Rd/Hm Opp Def Scr Allow Avg Defense Overall Def Scr Allowed (all games) Def Scr Allowed Rd/Hm Opp Off Scr Made Avg Turnovers TO (all games) TO Rd/Hm Offense First Downs Off 1st Downs (all games) Off 1st Downs Rd/Hm Opp Def 1st Dn Avg Defense First Downs Def 1st Dns Allow (all games) Def 1st Dns Allow Rd/Hm Opp Off 1st Dn Avg Time of Poss TOP (all games) TOP Rd/Hm Offense Overall Stats Tm Off Yds (all gms) Tm Off Tot Yds Rd/Hm Offense Rushing Stats Off Rush Yd/gm (all games) Tm Off Rush Yds Rd/Hm Opp Def Rush Avg Yds Off Rush Attmpts (all games) Off Rush Attmpts Rd/Hm Offense Passing Stats Off Pass Yds (all games) Tm Pass Yds Rd/Hm Opp Def Pass Avg Yds Off Passing Atmpts (all games) Off Passing Atmpts Rd/Hm Off Pass % (all games) Off Pass % Rd/Hm Defensive Overall Stats Tm Def Yds (all gms) Tm Def Tot Yds Road/Hm Defensive Rushing Stats Def Rush Yd/gm Allow (all games) Tm Def Rush Yds Rd/Hm Opp Off Rush Avg Yds Def Allows Rush Attmpt (all games) Def Allows Rush Attmpt Rd/Hm Defensive Passing Stats Def Pass Yds Allow (all games) Tm Def Pass Yds Rd/Hm Opp Off Pass Avg Yds Def Passing Atmpt Allowd (all games) Def Passing Atmpt Allowd Rd/Hm Def Pass % Allow (all games) Def Pass % Allow Rd/Hm Offensive YPPT Stats Off (all gms) YPPT Off Rd/Hm YPPT Oppon Def Avg YPPT Defensive YPPT Stats Def (all gms) YPPT Def Rd/Hm YPPT Oppon Off Avg YPPT Offensive YPP Stats Off (all gms) Avg YPP Off Rd/Hm YPP Oppon Def Avg YPP Defensive YPP Stats Def (all gms) Avg YPP Def Rd/Hm YPP Oppon Off Avg YPP Offensive YPR Stats Off (all gms) YPR Off Rd/Hm YPR Opp Def AvgYPR Defensive YPR Stats Def (all gms) YPR Def Rd/Hm YPR Opp Off Avg YPR Offensive PYA Stats Off Pass (all gms) PYA Off Rd/Hm PYA Opp Def Avg PYA Defensive PYA Stats Def (all gms) PYA Def Rd/Hm PYA Opp Off Avg PYA
Yards - Total yards per game gained or allowed. YPP - Average of total yards gained (or allowed) per play. TO - Number of turnovers committed (for offensive stats) or allowed (for defensive stats). FD - First downs gained or allowed per game. TOP - Time of possession for either team or their opponent. ATT-YDS (under rushing) - Per game averages - rushing attempts, rushing yards gained (or allowed). ATT-YDS (under total) - Per game averages - total plays, total yards gained (or allowed). YPR - Rushing yards gained (or allowed) per rushing attempt. CMP-ATT - Passing completions and attempts per game. (Either by team or by opponent.) PCT - Team's passing completion percentage or completion percentage surrendered by their defense. YDS (under passing) - Per game averages of passing yards gained (or allowed). YPA - Passing yards gained (or allowed) per passing attempt. YPPT - Average of total yards gained (or allowed) divided by the points scored per game (or allowed). INT - Interceptions thrown (offensive stats) or team interceptions (defensive stats). FL - Fumbles lost (offensive stats) or fumbles lost by opponents (defensive stats). TO - Total turnovers lost (offensive stats) or turnovers lost by opponents (defensive stats). DIFF - Team turnover differential represented as a per game average. + means more turnovers forced than lost. #-MADE - Per game averages of 3rd (4th) down opportunities and 3rd (4th) downs converted. PCT (Under 3rd, 4th down conversions) - Interceptions thrown (offensive stats) or team interceptions (defensive stats). KR-YDS - Kickoff returns and kickoff return yards as per game averages. (gained or allowed) YPKR - Kickoff return yards per return. (gained or allowed) PR-YDS - Punt returns and punt return yards as per game averages. (gained or allowed) YPPR - Punt return yards per return. (gained or allowed) PEN-YDS - Team (offense) and opponent (defense) penalties and penalty yards per game.