1. 10-08-16 12:37 PM #1
    KickShootThrow
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    $2500 on Florida State +2.5 ~~BEST Bet~~ College Football Saturday 10/8

    Been slightly under break even this week, down a few hundred. Haven't really gotten in my groove yet with picks so tail/fade at caution. If you've been checking out my threads, you know that I usually only bet 1 unit ($500) or so per game.

    I've already locked in 5 units on Florida State +2.5 and feeling very optimistic about it.

    I've seen a few threads about the FSU starting to lose it and 'now's a great time to start fading them' but this is a bounce-back game within a rivalry game. Some may say that FSU has been exposed this season. It's been seven years since Miami has last won in this series against The U. FSU typically dominates time of possession and that will be a key factor this game. The Seminoles are more used to dealing with pressure in their games, and much more prepared for a shootout which this game pans out to on paper.

    While the area is dealing with other issues regarding Matthew, it shouldn't be a big factor on this field. While no one is truly sure how good Miami really is, because of their soft schedule so far, they've shown lots of hustle and fight. But some how, some way, the Noles extend the streak to 7 in this series.




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  2. 10-08-16 12:42 PM #2
    Electrons
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    Why not buy the ML?

    If you're jumping up to 5 units---you can't be relying on 2 and/hook, so why no ML?
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  3. 10-08-16 12:45 PM #3
    KickShootThrow
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    Quote Originally Posted by Electrons View Post
    Why not buy the ML?

    If you're jumping up to 5 units---you can't be relying on 2 and/hook, so why no ML?
    If you were to buy the hook off of every game you bet that was at like 9.5, 6.5, 2.5, 10.5, 7.5, etc..., it's a losing proposition in the long term.

    I understand that the majority of people think 3 is such a crucial number in football, but it's much less likely in college compared to the NFL. Lots of games end up as a one or two point differential. As for this game, I'm unwilling to lay (-125) just to have an extra half point. Though I do believe FSU will win straight up, I feel much more at ease with +2.5.
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  4. 10-08-16 12:47 PM #4
    KickShootThrow
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    Also I read your post on the other thread about me not returning to discussion after my pick loses, I'll try not to do that anymore.

    But surely you can understand, I'm either in a bad mood cause my pick lost and I lost $500, or I'm constantly getting bashed as a fake girl (by you).
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  5. 10-08-16 12:54 PM #5
    Aye J Mac
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    KTs just keep what u doing girl! But I think a lot of public playing flo state. But gl on the play. Need to study up on this game still
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  6. 10-08-16 01:59 PM #6
    PhattDaddy204
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    FSU seems like play.

    BOL
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  7. 10-08-16 06:46 PM #7
    Aye J Mac
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    Man this game is hard
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  8. 10-08-16 06:49 PM #8
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aye J Mac View Post
    Man this game is hard
    I'm a Cane fan(alumni), so I naturally want Miami to win, but my money is telling me FSU
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  9. 10-08-16 07:12 PM #9
    KickShootThrow
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    Game time, lets go.
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  10. 10-08-16 07:14 PM #10
    Da Phoenix
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    Good luck
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  11. 10-08-16 07:20 PM #11
    RavensFan2k3
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    This was probably the hardest thing to do. I bet FSU ML
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  12. 10-08-16 07:24 PM #12
    joeygats
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    Quote Originally Posted by KickShootThrow View Post
    Game time, lets go.
    Gl i got 500 on Florida state 1st half ML
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  13. 10-08-16 07:27 PM #13
    p4$$ion
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    y'all might be able to double down on your plays with FSU +7.5 shortly
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  14. 10-08-16 07:28 PM #14
    BigOrange
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    ML is much more EV than taking 1 to 2.5 points in the long run.
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  15. 10-08-16 07:56 PM #15
    Electrons
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigOrange View Post
    ML is much more EV than taking 1 to 2.5 points in the long run.
    Exactly!

    Here is a # for KickShoot----5 years worth of data points....NCAAF game with lines closing 0-2.5, only 2.7% actually fell within that number!!!!!

    The value was in the ML wager.

    I'm not debating the side---although I see no value in Florida State at all---I'm arguing where the BEST VALUE is.

    It was on the ML.
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  16. 10-08-16 07:57 PM #16
    RavensFan2k3
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    Now the QB is out. Just great. I swear I'm gonna hate myself if I bet against my Canes and they win
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  17. 10-08-16 08:00 PM #17
    Electrons
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Now the QB is out. Just great. I swear I'm gonna hate myself if I bet against my Canes and they win
    Why would you bet against your own team?

    You either roll WITH them, or pass.
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  18. 10-08-16 08:01 PM #18
    KickShootThrow
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Now the QB is out. Just great. I swear I'm gonna hate myself if I bet against my Canes and they win
    Don't worry, our backup QB is not bad. Francois was not the real deal anyways.
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  19. 10-08-16 08:02 PM #19
    Electrons
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    Quote Originally Posted by KickShootThrow View Post
    Don't worry, our backup QB is not bad. Francois was not the real deal anyways.
    Then why was he starting?
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  20. 10-08-16 08:05 PM #20
    joeygats
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    Ugh im fkkkkkkkkkkk this was my last 500 should of took wash 1st half or Stanford ughhhh
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  21. 10-08-16 08:12 PM #21
    KRIT
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    Lol this girl showin screen shots, 95% of sbr men can't even do it. Props to OP.
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  22. 10-08-16 08:13 PM #22
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Electrons View Post
    Why would you bet against your own team?

    You either roll WITH them, or pass.
    I know I know! I guess we'll see man
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  23. 10-08-16 08:14 PM #23
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    Miami looking good
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  24. 10-08-16 08:26 PM #24
    RavensFan2k3
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    Well, game not over, but Maguire is trash for FSU. Miami D is forreal. Francois is back, but hurt. FSU has slim chance IMO
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  25. 10-08-16 08:48 PM #25
    ATLIEN6
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    Are you going to run from this thread when it loses again?
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  26. 10-08-16 09:05 PM #26
    JayDr3am
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Well, game not over, but Maguire is trash for FSU. Miami D is forreal. Francois is back, but hurt. FSU has slim chance IMO
    these miami true freshman linebackers are monsters. wow
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  27. 10-08-16 09:37 PM #27
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by JayDr3am View Post
    these miami true freshman linebackers are monsters. wow
    Very impressive
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  28. 10-08-16 09:38 PM #28
    Aye J Mac
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    Looks like Florida state have a chance to win now
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  29. 10-08-16 09:44 PM #29
    KickShootThrow
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    Momentum change.

    Quote Originally Posted by ATLIEN6 View Post
    Are you going to run from this thread when it loses again?
    I'm still here.
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  30. 10-08-16 09:50 PM #30
    KickShootThrow
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    FSU steaming back and gonna take this game straight up.
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  31. 10-08-16 09:54 PM #31
    KickShootThrow
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    COME ON FSU!!! 17-13 now
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  32. 10-08-16 09:54 PM #32
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by KickShootThrow View Post
    FSU steaming back and gonna take this game straight up.
    This is tough for me to watch...like I said, I have money on FSU, but am a Canes fan ugh lol
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  33. 10-08-16 10:00 PM #33
    KickShootThrow
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    Come on, get another TD here. Put a 2 possession lead on the board.
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  34. 10-08-16 10:16 PM #34
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    What a huge swing of momentum
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  35. 10-08-16 10:19 PM #35
    KickShootThrow
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    Begging for the momentum to stay on FSU side. I would have really preferred 7 points over the FG on that last possession.
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