[usma1992]

I have posted over the course of the last 6-7 years and have spent time predicting games with my computer model to a minimal success. It is very hard to find a system that can sustain a reasonable outcome.

So what I have changed---I am now running a coorelation analysis on zscores of individual statistics. What I mean is that I am looking at each statistic relative to the mean and their peers and then I am trying to determine whether the outcome has any coorelation. A coorelation score ranges from -1 to 1. In college the best I have gotten is around .56 on NFL I have only been able to generate a coorelation to about .38.

My next step was to take this coorelation and check it against recent data. The combination of stats that met my specs I then weighted to get optimal results. I put 2010-2014 in one category and the last two years in a second category. When I ran the analysis... I tested to see what combination of the weighted statistics produced a 58% outcome in each of the categories at the same time.

If it did...I kicked that combination to a new spreadsheet and I am now running those combinations to see if they work this year. I have different combinations for over, under, home, away, favorites and dogs. I chose to break them down into six different categories.

Week 1--Hit 58%--but I could only use last years end of season data
Week 2 Hit 51% but that was based on only one games stats
Week 3 Hit 46.3% but again these stats only include two volatile weeks for college football.

I start my betting Week 4 for College and Week 3 for Pro.

Any suggestions on what I could do better is appreciated. I bought computer parts to build a new computer because my 8 year old computer couldn't handle the calculations. Parts just came in...running NFL program right now... takes 6-8 hours...college about the same... I will post my picks so that the board can rip them apart.

Thank You
Dave

[Electrons]

Well, the most obvious question--you start betting at the start of college conference play (Week 4), how do you value the differential in the variance of out of conference scheduling?

Take a look at Baylor's OOC schedule and Oklahoma's.

Individual stats will be very different and not really have any value when you try to compare those two teams (as an example).

[xdodger19]

My theory is no computer at all,
just set up your bet so you cant lose

[usma1992]

I understand what you are saying and it is very difficult to take it into count. What I have tested is that I use the Vegas Spread against the statistics? Since they have access to so much more information than I do, I take their spread and adjust the statistics using a tested formula. For example is -21, I could increase the stats by 20% for the favorite and decrease 20% for the underdog. Just an example of what you could do to account for the discrepancy.

Dave

[Electrons]

I understand what you are saying and it is very difficult to take it into count. What I have tested is that I use the Vegas Spread against the statistics? Since they have access to so much more information than I do, I take their spread and adjust the statistics using a tested formula. For example is -21, I could increase the stats by 20% for the favorite and decrease 20% for the underdog. Just an example of what you could do to account for the discrepancy.

Dave

Dave---with all due respect---read your post again. It is tough to offer help/advice when you're not very specific about what you're doing?

How about this. Give us a specific example, using numbers/lines and what your "formula" is. This way, we can offer some opinion.

[Blazermaniac]

Solve this riddle. Add on to your system and you'll be unbeatable like me.

How can I go 10-3 and claim I win 100%????

Answer: The Chase System.

[SBRMAN23]

Solve this riddle. Add on to your system and you'll be unbeatable like me.

How can I go 10-3 and claim I win 100%????

Answer: The Chase System.

[Eddy Munny]

[Eddy Munny]

[xdodger19]

the books most likely are already using computers, you have to essentially beat them