1. 08-31-16 02:41 PM #1
    gojetsgomoxies
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    fading big line movements....

    something i'm going to try to keep track of this year.......... look at fading big line movements. some are due to QB issues i.e. suspension/injury..

    a bunch that jump out so far,

    LT +26
    NMS +9
    Ore St +13
    FIU +10.5
    rutgers +26.5

    the first 2 i think have QB issues.

    others that have moved quite a bit. i'll just grade them on the close.

    mspst
    fsu
    houston
    so car
    tn
    kent
    ball
    temple

    some of the 2nd list are pretty big faves... so i'll try to slice/dice after week 1.
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  2. 08-31-16 06:26 PM #2
    Seadoo
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    good luck!
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  3. 09-08-16 02:38 PM #3
    gojetsgomoxies
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    main games 2-3............... so betting market was correct with its line moves

    larger later list 5-3 - smaller moves and more eye-balling by me.

    so not too newsworthy so far.
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  4. 09-08-16 03:00 PM #4
    BaseballChaser
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    I would stay away from big spreads if you're going to try this. Or if you play them they need to be bigger line moves then a smaller line.

    A line moving from -4 to -6 is much more meaningful then -25 to -27. Not sure how big of movement you're looking for probably more than 2 points, just using it as an example.
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  5. 09-08-16 03:02 PM #5
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Yeah, I was going to ask how you're quantifying big line movements. Regardless, best of luck to you!
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  6. 09-08-16 04:05 PM #6
    Buffalo Nickle
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    This strategy is a sure fire loser with a capital L.
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  7. 09-08-16 05:10 PM #7
    gojetsgomoxies
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    Quote Originally Posted by BaseballChaser View Post
    I would stay away from big spreads if you're going to try this. Or if you play them they need to be bigger line moves then a smaller line.

    A line moving from -4 to -6 is much more meaningful then -25 to -27. Not sure how big of movement you're looking for probably more than 2 points, just using it as an example.
    i tried to incorporate that type of thinking into those "picks"........ but i doubt i gave enough consideration to small spread games

    is it just the "point move vs. the spread"? or is it also the psychology/play of big spread games?

    i will try to quantify something in the future...... i do like slicing/dicing analysis. i will check the spreads and also bcs vs. non-bcs...

    as to one comment, just something i am tracking. wasn't meant to be picks....
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  8. 09-08-16 05:16 PM #8
    gojetsgomoxies
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    i did closer spread games.... have it as 6-5 ATS.....

    would also add the "quarterback change" games went 1-1 ATS. so wasn't a factor.
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