**************** G-Man's Bowl Season Thread 2015-2016***************
Last Year (elsewhere) was a great year for me, as I had a bowl run on sides that went 20-4 and finished the bowl season with outright SU wins with Ohio State over Alabama and a SU win Ohio State Ml win over Oregon.
Overall the bowls were 22-11 while winning over 60 units.
Lets hope for a similar bowl season this year.
New Mexico +7.5 (4 units) over Arizona.
New Mexico played well against bowl level teams going 3-5 SU while Arizona was 2-6. Granted that Arizona played a few tougher teams like Stanford, but they still have one of the worst defenses of all bowlers this season while New Mexico has one of the best. New mexico play 6 of their last 7 against bowlers but 4 were away games. Since this is The New Mexico Bowl, that makes this one a home game.
BYU +2.5 (4 units) over Utah.
Utres loast 3 of their last 6 SU and failed to score over 20 points in their last 2. Both defense play at the same level only allowing 24 points per game against all bowlers, but BYU has a more reliable coach on Mendenhall who won 6 of last 7 in regular season play SU. Dog between these 2 have covered 5 of the last 6 ATS.
Ohio +7.5 (5 units) over Appy State.
Ohioo played 6 bowlers and went 3-3 against them SU. Appy State played 4 bowlers and went 2-2 SU. If Appy state played all 6 of the teams that Ohio played - they wouldn’t be in a bowl game. If Ohio played the 3 teams that Appy state played (except Clemson),they would be 11-1 IMO. Wrong team favored IMO.
Georgia State +1 (3 units) over San Jose State.
San Jose comes in this bowl at 5-6 SU while Ga Sourthern arrives at 5-5. DS played a good defense against bowlers except for Getting manhandled by Oregon. Remove the Oregon game and all of a sudden GS looks much better on paper. This game opened with SJoe favored by 5, but since then, its done to -1. Defensively GS has the better defense and a slightly better offense IMO so Im on the dog in this one.
Arky State +2 (3 units) over La Tech.
Arky State brings back 9 starters on offense from LY and 6 defensive players. They are seasoned and due for a big game against a foe that stunned Illinois on last years bowl game. LT should be favored by much more if the current team was as good as last year, but they are considerably weaker IMO and could get beat in this on.
Idaho Potato Bowl 3:30 PM Akron +7.5 ( 4 units) over Utah State.
Akron comes in here with a very good defense and a running QB that could expose a soft defense with Utah State. Utah State has lost 3 of their last four to finish the season. They’re no longer the team they were befors the slide.
Temple has improved but not enough to beat Toledo IMO . Temple lost SU to USF and Houston in the playoff game.
In Temple’s last three games against bowl quality teams who they lost to, they have onlty managed to score 23, 20 and 14 points. A low scoring offense is usually going to have a hard time covering as a favorite unless the opponent is another low scoring team. Toledo has averaged 30 points per game against bowl level teams this season. Rockets take off.
Poinsettia Bowl. 4:30PM ESPN
Northern Illinois +10 (-120). (5 units) over Boise State.
In four losses this year Boise allowed over 38 points per game…all to bowlers!
No, Illinois is a sold team and getting 10 points is far too many. Boise also only averaged 28 points offensively against those teams. They should not be favored by much and this game should be a pk-3 point line IMO. Boise is starting a freashman at QB,
GoDaddy Bowl 8:00 PM. ESPN
Georgia Southern +7.5 ( 5 units) over Bowling Green.
At first glance this game appeared to be all Bowling Green.
While comparing the 3 losses the Falcons had, it showed they lost in rushing yardage in all 3. Guess what, Ga. Southern is #1 in rushing and leads the nation with 358 rushing yards per game. That equates to BG never getting the ball much.
Middle Tennessee State +4.5 (5 units) over Western Michigan.
Hard to play against WM but MID Tenn has competent defense to hold off the WM offense. WM played 3 teams that reveal they can be beat, by losing to Ga Southern, Bowling Green, and NIU. They beat Toleod but were outgained in that win. In the last three games facing winning teams they gave up 98 points. Midd Tenn looks to be a SU winner to me, but I’m taking the points.
SDSU -3 (10 units) over Cincinnati.
SDSU played 7 Bowl teams and won 5 SU. Losses to Penn State (away), and California (away) validate that they are too much for Cincinnati. In those losses, SDSU held both opponents to 35 and 37 points. Bearcats will find the SDSU defense to be a dominating group. Offensively, Cincinnati can score but I look for a big drop off by the Bearcats today. SDSU could match their season high (52pts) on the scoreboard, on Pleasure Island.
Conn +4 (5 units) over Marshall.
The Thundering Herd of Marshall, comes into the bowl game off a season of disappointment. Just one year ago the Herd was nearly undefeated losing only 1 game by a score of 66-67. They won their bowl game by crushing NIU 52-23.
This year they are nowhere near the team they were.
Last year they went 3-1 against bowl quality teams and this year they’re 1-3. A big drop off in points scored per game this season (33) from a year ago when they scored 46, is significant to say the least.
Conn came out of the bottom with only 2 wins last year, to make a Bowl game and finish at 6-6, but was a solid team defensively against bowlers holding them to an average of 28 points per game,. Not bad considering that included beating Houston 20-17 and holding BYU to only 30 points in a loss.
Conn has a real chance to upset today with Marshall likely disappointed to be here in this low-level bowl this season.
Miami +2.5 (5 units) over Washington State.
Cougars (8-4) were favored only 4 times during the regular season. Once against a bowl team (Arizona State). Now slightly favored against Miami, on a neutral site, they should find it hard to win. Winning 8 games and being favored only 1 time against a bowler, is suspect in my opinion.
Canes get the win.
HEART OF DALLAS BOWL (COTTON BOWL) 2:20PM ESPN
Southern Miss +8.5 (5 units) over Washington.
Huskies may not even be here if they didn’t win over Washington State in regular season final. It took 7 Huskie turnovers for Huskies to win that game.
SM could stun the Huskies in this one.
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**************** G-Man's Bowl Season Thread 2015-2016***************
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