[nobs]

Here is just another nonsensical line. I think in Rivalry games like this, you have to knock off 3 to 7 points from the favorite. Maybe Florida State hasn't had that great of a year, but this is a game they care about.

Florida State + 25 1/2 points here is just way too much. I know they are expecting Tebow to have a big game since its his last game in the swamp, but Florida State will be up for this game and this will be their game of the year.

I cant say much negative against Florida, obviously they are 11-0 so what can you say bad about them ? Well, they started the year crushing Charleston Southern and Troy ( just as Florida State would have), but since those 2 games, Floridas offense has only scored 283 points in 9 games or 31 points per game.

This Florida offense can and has been shut down this year. I think the Seminoles Defense will hold Florida to something in the range of 27-30 points, which is just under what the Gators have averaged over their last 9. If the Seminoles do that, they will surely score enough to cover.

There is so much hype on Tebow, but this year at least it has been Florida's Defense that has been the real show, not its offense. Florida has been held to 29 or less 6 times, and that is really 6 out of 7 quality opponents who have done it.
The Gators have only scored 30 + this year 5 times. They did it against Charleston Southern, Troy, Fla. International, Kentucky, and Georgia. None of those are great teams.

So to me that is the question, can Florida State keep Florida from scoring 30 ? I say yes for sure. I know this Seminoles Defense has given up some points this year, but I also know they will be 100% ready for this game. To me, there is no way that Florida will get more than 34 tops and that wont be enough to cover.

I think Christian Ponder will be able to pass the ball with some effectiveness today and running back Thomas who is averaging 5.3 years per carry this year will be able to run it. I am not going to predict that the Seminoles score huge, they probably wont. Fact is they dont have to. I think that the Seminoles get 7-10 and Florida IMO gets 24-31.

To me here, this line is jacked up huge because everyone think Tebow will go crazy since its his last game in the swamp. I doubt that will really motivate him that much to try and win by 30+. I think there is a lot more motivation in Florida State trying not to get humiliated by an in state rival that they used to beat a lot.

Also, Bowden wants to come back next year while alot of Florida State big shots dont want him back. This game, IMO will go along way in determining whether he comes back. Bowden has this team ready for this game. He will not let this team lose by this many points today.

Florida State + 25 1/2 is gold.

[NashvilleSteve]

Here is just another nonsensical line. I think in Rivalry games like this, you have to knock off 3 to 7 points from the favorite. Maybe Florida State hasn't had that great of a year, but this is a game they care about.

Florida State + 25 1/2 points here is just way too much. I know they are expecting Tebow to have a big game since its his last game in the swamp, but Florida State will be up for this game and this will be their game of the year.

I cant say much negative against Florida, obviously they are 11-0 so what can you say bad about them ? Well, they started the year crushing Charleston Southern and Troy ( just as Florida State would have), but since those 2 games, Floridas offense has only scored 283 points in 9 games or 31 points per game.

This Florida offense can and has been shut down this year. I think the Seminoles Defense will hold Florida to something in the range of 27-30 points, which is just under what the Gators have averaged over their last 9. If the Seminoles do that, they will surely score enough to cover.

There is so much hype on Tebow, but this year at least it has been Florida's Defense that has been the real show, not its offense. Florida has been held to 29 or less 6 times, and that is really 6 out of 7 quality opponents who have done it.
The Gators have only scored 30 + this year 5 times. They did it against Charleston Southern, Troy, Fla. International, Kentucky, and Georgia. None of those are great teams.

So to me that is the question, can Florida State keep Florida from scoring 30 ? I say yes for sure. I know this Seminoles Defense has given up some points this year, but I also know they will be 100% ready for this game. To me, there is no way that Florida will get more than 34 tops and that wont be enough to cover.

I think Christian Ponder will be able to pass the ball with some effectiveness today and running back Thomas who is averaging 5.3 years per carry this year will be able to run it. I am not going to predict that the Seminoles score huge, they probably wont. Fact is they dont have to. I think that the Seminoles get 7-10 and Florida IMO gets 24-31.

To me here, this line is jacked up huge because everyone think Tebow will go crazy since its his last game in the swamp. I doubt that will really motivate him that much to try and win by 30+. I think there is a lot more motivation in Florida State trying not to get humiliated by an in state rival that they used to beat a lot.

Also, Bowden wants to come back next year while alot of Florida State big shots dont want him back. This game, IMO will go along way in determining whether he comes back. Bowden has this team ready for this game. He will not let this team lose by this many points today.

Florida State + 25 1/2 is gold.

Great Write Up!!!I agree!!!!!!!

[nobs]

Thanks man.

Think this will be a good game.

[HoulihansTX]

Gl. I cant touch, b/c FSU is my fav team. But I would lean this way, but FSU's D is so horrible.

[TheBetBuysDanK]

good write up.

correction: ponder is out. FSU starts freshman super talent EJ manual.

Add in that Florida will need to rest starters to stay healthy for Alabama.

score at half : Florida 24 - FSU 10
Final Score Florida 41 - FSU -24

[BrownTown]

This game has a backdoor cover written ALL over it

[rdrunner466]

I got burned last year with the same exact thought. I took florida state with the points got killed.

[S.K.M.]

Ponder has been out for a couple weeks now. They beat up Wake without him but they didn't play very well last week against Maryland

[BrownTown]

I got burned last year with the same exact thought. I took florida state with the points got killed.

No P Harvin and Florida is FAR less explosive they were last year. If SFU can put 2 TD's on the board...you need the Tebow Gators to put up 6 TD's. Can they do it? I guess, but that is a tall order IMO ... they just don't blow people out this year that are not cupcakes

[tbonmusikman]

I disagree. Florida's D is incredibly strong deep, even their second string will be able to keep Florida State from scoring. Ponder is out, a Freshman getting his first start in a rivalry game in the Swamp does not bode well for their offense against one of the best D's in the league.

You say Florida averaged 31 against it's 11 other teams which I believe, but I also think that FSU is below the average of those teams. Florida scores 35-42 and Florida State struggles to score 10 (if they even score)