[ackem19]

Boise St -13
Boise St is 8-1 ATS when going against Nevada. Nevada is on the road here where they’ve struggled. Nevada has been playing exceptionally well against other MAC teams however, they are 2-3 ATS and 3-2 SU in road games. Nevada has only been an underdog twice this year and they’ve failed to cover going 0-2 both SU/ATS as an underdog. Boise is still competing with TCU for that BCS Bowl game bid and thus needs to continue to win convincingly. Nevada is the perfect opponent for Boise St, considering the familiarity as well as the prior success against them. Boise St has a veteran coaching staff with the Off. Cord. in his 9th year and their Def. Cord. in his 4th year.

Alabama -11
Alabama is coming into this game with the SEC Championship game right around the corner. Catching Bama in a look ahead spot kind of worries me, but the fact that Auburn has no defense, puts me at ease. Alabama has done a great job of shutting down Offenses and they get an opportunity to shut down a rival’s offense. Auburn will not be able to stop the run seeing how they’ve allowed 170 rushing yards per game throughout the year while Alabama has only allowed 70 rushing yards per game. The only thing that worries me in this game is the situation; Alabama as a road favorite, with Florida and the SEC Championship next week. As a road favorite this year, Alabama is 3-0 ATS. Auburn is 3-4 ATS against Conference Opponents and 2-2 ATS as an underdog.

Wyoming +3
Wyoming takes to the road this week vs. Colorado St. Wyoming has had a lot of success on the road this year going 4-1 ATS while CSU is 2-2 ATS at home. One stat that really jumps out at me is CSU’s 0-3 SU/ATS record when they are a favorite. Wyoming however is 6-3 as an underdog. Wyoming has played some tough competition and hasn’t done too bad. They were only down 24-10 at the end of the first half against TCU. Besides the shutout against BYU (52-0), Wyoming played close at Utah (22-10) and at Air Force (10-0). Wyoming is 3-0 SU/ATS when playing a team with a losing record while CSU is 0-3 SU/ATS when playing a team with a losing record. Wyoming could end the season at .500 with a victory at CSU. CSU has also lost their last 5 both SU and ATS.

Pittsburgh -2
Plain and simple, Pittsburgh needs to win this game to have a shot at winning the Big East Championship. Pittsburgh faces off against Cincinnati next week and the winner of that game would be crowned Big East Champion. WVU haven’t defeated Pittsburgh since Rich Rodriguez’ left to coach Michigan. WVU is 1-4 ATS at home this year while Pittsburgh is 3-1 ATS as a road favorite. Both teams are coming off a bye week and Pittsburgh has had plenty of time to rest up and get their gameplan together to face a familiar foe. WVU is 1-1 ATS as an underdog while Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS as a favorite. Noel Devine is coming off an injury and may be a little hobbled but even if healthy, Pitt has been able to hold WVU’s ground game in check the past two years allowing only 157 last year and 104 the year before. More than anything, I just think that Pittsburgh knows how important this game is and they are going to do everything they can to win.

Duke +3
Coming off of a heartbreaking loss to The U, I have to believe that Duke is a the better team in this game. Duke was right in the game with Miami until a missed 31 yard field goal in the 4th quarter. After that miss, Miami threw a 54 yard touchdown and then followed that up with a pick 6 on Duke’s in suing possession. The game went from 20-16 to 34-16 within just a few plays. Now Duke gets to go home and face a Wake Forest team that they are 7-3 ATS against. Duke is coming into this game with the better pass and rush defense along with the better passing attack. Wake Forest has the advantage on the ground but that shouldn’t be an issue seeing how Cutcliffe doesn’t care to run. The strength of this Duke team is their passing game lead by Thaddeus Lewis and they are averaging 318 passing yards per game at home. Duke has come away with a victory each time they’ve faced an opponent with a losing record going 2-0 SU and 1-0 ATS. Wake however, has struggled against opponents with a losing record posting an 0-3 ATS record and a 2-4 ATS record when a favorite. Duke has been an excellent under the radar team and Wake has struggled on the road going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS.

Troy -10.5
This week Troy is playing at UL-Lafayette. In these two teams previous meetings, Troy is 4-1 ATS and has won 4 consecutive. Troy is playing terrific football against SBC teams posting 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS records. ULL will be missing starting LB Daylon McCoy (among teams sack/tackle leaders) which will hurt a Lafayette defense that will need everything they have to stop Troy’s high powered offense. Troy is averaging 287 passing yards per game on the road while ULL allows 223 passing yards per game at home. The biggest issue for Troy will be their defense. The Trojans have no trouble giving up points but that hasn’t stopped them from being a solid team ATS with an overall ATS record of 7-4.

TCU -44
TCU will look to continue their hot streak of 6 ATS wins to finish off their season. New Mexico has played well against losing teams but have gone just 1-2 ATS against teams with winning records. TCU is currently ranked 4th in the nation and if the season ended today they would be a lock a BCS Bowl game. With that being said, TCU needs to win convincingly to increase chances to move up in the rankings pending a loss by the top 3. TCU has been a beast all season covering the spread posting an ATS record of 8-2. New Mexico’s best games have come at home but they’ve struggled on the road going 2-3 ATS. The only other time NM was an underdog of 31 or more, was earlier this season vs. a Texas Tech team that has no defense. TCU has arguably the best defense in the nation and shouldn’t allow too many points against New Mexico. One more thing, TCU has won the last 4 meetings both ATS and SU.

Kentucky ML
Kentucky is a home underdog this week facing Tennessee. Tennessee will be without Starting LB LaMarcus Thompson and starting S Darren Myles going up against a very tough Kentucky team. I picked Kentucky last week against Georgia and I like them this week as well. Tennessee has done a good job against some really tough teams this year but have struggled against other teams with a winning record. Tennessee is 3-3 ATS against teams with a winning record and 3-4 ATS as a favorite. Kentucky is 4-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. Kentucky comes into this game 0-10 against Tennessee however this is their 1st game against Lane Kiffin and company. Tennessee is allowing 234 rushing yards per game on the road while Kentucky is averaging 165 rushing yards at home. Look for Kentucky to utilize their wildcat offense and look for Randall Cobb and Derrick Locke to have a strong showing at home against Tennessee. Locke is averaging 5 ypc and has 821 rushing yards this year and Cobb is averaging 13 ypc and has over 300 rushing yards this year. This is the same Kentucky team that put up 20 points against Alabama earlier in the season.

Georgia +7
Georgia vs. Georgia Tech is always a great matchup. 4 out of the 5 last matchups have been decided by 7 points or less. Georgia has had a terrible season and I believe they were caught looking ahead last week in their loss to Kentucky. If there is one game this season that Georgia needs to win, it’s this one. Last year, Georgia lost at home 45-42 and I expect them to be looking for revenge. Georgia has the edge in the passing game this year, something that GT has been real streaky at defending. GT has allowed 250+ passing yards in their last two games and if Georgia is able to move the ball against GT, Georgia will be able to pull off the upset. Georgia leads the series 7-3 SU/ATS against GT. Plus, Georgia falls into a this situation: Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a loss as a double digit home favorite after the first month of the season. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) since 1992.

Middle Tennessee St -4

MTST is facing off against UL-Monroe, an opponent who has only played 1 game against a team with a winning record. MTST is 5-0 SU/ATS as a favorite and 8-0 SU/ATS with 6 days or less rest vs. ULM’s 3-4 ATS record. MTST is 6-1 SU/ATS against conference opponents and 6-2 ATS in game played on turf while ULM is 3-2 ATS. MTST is also on a 5 game winning streak ATS. ULM’s leading WR LaGregory Sapp is out for the year (he leads the SBC in receiving yards per game with 83.4) and that will surely hurt their passing attack. I think MTST -4 is a gift because they should be about a 7-10 point favorite.

[wookieehumper]

Bernard Pierce's injury may not have that big of an impact on the Temple - Ohio game. Matt Brown had 156 yards rushing on 18 carries along with 2 TD's in Bernard Pierce's absence. Ohio's rush defense is also extremely bad, so Ohio ML may be one you might want to stay away from.

[eastvan09]

I am leaning with you on Alabama, Pitt, and Boise St

[ackem19]

Bernard Pierce's injury may not have that big of an impact on the Temple - Ohio game. Matt Brown had 156 yards rushing on 18 carries along with 2 TD's in Bernard Pierce's absence. Ohio's rush defense is also extremely bad, so Ohio ML may be one you might want to stay away from.

It's funny you should say that, that was one game that I was already thinking about scratching. After i did the write up, i thought, "i don't really like this pick", but i decided to post it just because i already did the write up. thanks for the input.

[iceminers26]

Good luck Ack, don't think I can back Wyoming b2b weeks

[ackem19]

iceminers26,
if you don't feel comfortable backing Wyoming, maybe you should just think of it as fading CSU haha.

[Kustac]

looks like a good week for you ackem, just my opinion though, good luck

[BigdaddyQH]

A few corrections here. First, Boise and Nevada play in the WAC, not the MAC. Next, Pitt does NOT have to win this game to win the Big East. They must win next week at home against Cincinnati. Pitt has NOT lost a conference game, and if they lose this week, but win enxt week, they win the tie breaker in the Big East. As far as playing on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off a loss as a double diget home favorite after Spetember, Auburn lost to Kentucky at home as a double diget favorite and then lost at LSU in October this year. Notre Dame did the same, losing to the Navy and to Pitt. I do not know of any teams this year that actually covered that situation this year, so obviously that trend is not holding water.

[Cougar Bait]

GL thie week ackem. Might be on Pitt with you. Will likely be on GT, and the rest, well, I either have no opinion on or just don't see as solid plays one way or the other. Good job on the write-ups. Always good to read different angles. Wish I had the time to do it every week. Sometimes there just isn't enough time in the day.

[ackem19]

A few corrections here. First, Boise and Nevada play in the WAC, not the MAC. Next, Pitt does NOT have to win this game to win the Big East. They must win next week at home against Cincinnati. Pitt has NOT lost a conference game, and if they lose this week, but win enxt week, they win the tie breaker in the Big East. As far as playing on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off a loss as a double diget home favorite after Spetember, Auburn lost to Kentucky at home as a double diget favorite and then lost at LSU in October this year. Notre Dame did the same, losing to the Navy and to Pitt. I do not know of any teams this year that actually covered that situation this year, so obviously that trend is not holding water.

After the Navy loss, ND covered against Pitt. Do some research. ND was +5-5.5 against Pitt. They lost, 27-22.

[southpark79]

ackem19, How confident are you in the pittsburgh prediction? They are just a pick against West Virginia is there something I am missing here?

[ackem19]

southpark79,
I'm really confident in Pittsburgh, then again I think everybody is. I would assume the game is a PK or Pitt -1 because of how close these teams have played in the past. Last year Pitt won 19-15 and in 2007 Pitt won 13-9. Both games decided by 4 points despite how well each team was playing. Statistically, Pitt wins every category except for the TO Margin. Both teams have strong Rush Defense's. Pitt only allows 102 rypg while WVU allows 120 rypg. That could be another reason why the spread is so low, both teams may struggle to score. Pitt has also struggled defending the pass on the road, allowing 301 pypg. All that said, I've watched Pitt play, I've watched WVU play, and all I can say is Pitt is definitely the better team and I think the realize the importance of winning this game.

[LINE-crush-ER]

I am leaning with you on Alabama, Pitt, and Boise St

got Bama Pitt and Nevada
Been waiting to bet this one for 6 weeks
cant believe this one came in at +13.5
I also teased the three together to cover my bets on the three straight up

giving bama a win pitt a ten spot and Nevada 23.5
Nevada has the ability to win straight up so getting points is never a bad thing
Boise just doenst have the talent to be a gunned or targeted team
they are very weak in the secondary as well as Lb defensively
Nevada has every reason in the world to get up for this game.

Boise State and Nevada have played six common opponents this season, with all six being WAC opponents. Both teams have both gone 6-0 against Fresno State, Idaho, Louisiana Tech, Hawaii, Utah State and San Jose State. Boise State is averaging 51.7 points per game in those six contests, while allowing 20.7 for an average margin of victory of 31 points per game. Nevada is averaging 47.8 points per game and allowing 22.2 for a margin of victory of 25.6. Of that group, the Broncos drew Fresno State, Hawaii, Louisiana Tech and Utah State on the road, while the Wolf Pack hosted Fresno State, Idaho, Louisiana Tech and Hawaii, traveling to San Jose State and Utah State. In those games, Nevada has had two decided by 10 points or less, defeating Utah State 35-32 on the road and winning 31-21 over Hawaii at home. Boise State’s only conference game decided by less than 10 points was a 45-35 victory at Louisiana Tech.

and dont forget both teams are undefeated in conference play
the winner gets the crown
Nevada has won their last 8 straight

[jacktownbold]

I think you are right here about Boise State. They need a convincing win and I hope that they do win big!

[angelodebo]

I'm with you on Georgia (small wager). I think SEC vs ACC is a big advantage. Georgia has played far better competition than GT this year. After last week, I think (hope) Georgia plays with pride..and should keep it close.

As far as SEC vs ACC goes..I'm all over S.Carolina! Clemson loses by two touchdowns on Saturday!