My one and only college football play this season was:
Oklahoma State +9.5 (-106)
Oklahoma State ML +290
That game was also against Baylor.
I don't have time to do the write up, but a lot of the same ideas with the Ok St game apply to this one as well. This Baylor team is vastly over rated, and away from home they are not a very good football team.
UCF is a much better defensive unit IMO, and Bortles is more than capable.
As I stated, I don't have time to bore you with a write up, but I'll leave you with this.
UCF wins by 14+.