$$$$$$ Taking Under 28.5 First Half Tonight in the N. Illinois/Utah St. Game $$$$$$$
I expect this game to have a "feeling out" period in the early going barring some quick type of score from defense or special teams. Northern Illinois is largely one dimensional and Utah St. has been pretty good on the defensive side of the ball. So I could see the Huskies trying to get their run game going early with some success before punting the ball away. Now when Utah St. has the ball, I expect a somewhat conservative approach early with a freshman quarterback. Yes Garretson has some seasoning from the regular season post-Keeton injury, but I don't think this is a great spot, in a bowl game, to have him firing right out of the gate, unless they find themselves in an early hole.
All things considered, I like this game to play the Under, but I feel the first half Under 28.5 is a bit safer because I project a slower, more methodical start to the game than most bowls. I've seen too often the floodgates open in the 2nd half and scoring suddenly skyrockets, so I'd rather shorten the game by 2 quarters with just this 1H bet.
Although I saw this early in the first quarter, I waited until there wasn't any doubt that you'd get your play in before posting this because I did not want to jinx you.
Eddy... your logic was flawless and your analysis was dead-on. The only reason I didn't jump in with you on a Live Line play, is because I rarely play totals and have vowed to never again play any unders. If I am going to play a total, you can bet your ass that i'll be an ↑.
Thanx Tripper...I don't care much for Unders in bowl games, as they tend to be shootouts, but the total on this just left me scratching my head. So I had to pull the trigger.