The Pac-10 title has become a wild and wide open race and two teams still with a chance of winning it face off as the USC Trojans host the Stanford Cardinal.
It has been a regular occurrence, the USC Trojans winning the Pac-10 and going to the Rose Bowl and then on occasion, going to the National Championship game but neither of those results are likely this season. The Trojans, after years of reloading, have some slight rebuilding going on and not even they could withstand the years of damage done by players leaving early. Matt Barkley has a bright future at QB and the Trojans still abound in talent but they can't score like they used to though their defense is still outstanding. USC comes in as winners in four of their last five but haven't covered in four straight.
Stanford has one of the better young QB's in college football in Andrew Luck. Though he isn't getting that much publicity, it's just a matter of time before he becomes well recognized as the next great Stanford QB. The Cardinal are bowl eligible and headed in the right direction under coach Jim Harbaugh. The Stanford running game has set the tone and in a conference loaded with running back talent, it may actually be Stanford's Toby Gerhart who is the best. The Stanford defense is definitely their weakest unit and can be vulnerable as they let Oregon back into the game a week ago after having a huge lead.
USC is 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record but they are just 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 against the Pac-10. Stanford is 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 Pac-10 games and 7-3 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record. Stanford has covered four of the last five in this series.
I still think USC is among the elite programs in the country even though they aren't dominating like we are used to. Stanford is not just a good team, they are physically and mentally tough enough to play with anyone. I think USC gets a tough victory in the game but I think Stanford keeps it within range of the spread. Pick: Stanford +10 1/2.
This is one of the most ridiculous lines I've ever seen. The most points Penn State has scored against a 1-A opponent this year is 35, so in theory, Indiana needs only 10 points in this contest to cover.
The Hoosiers are a feisty squad and I have to believe that they'll hang around. The Nittany Lions just lost a big game to Ohio State and could be flat in an early home game.
INDIANA +24.5
Pittsburgh Panthers -6
Michigan State shoots for their third straight over their conference rival after a 21-7 win in 2008. Both teams come in as week ten winners with the Spartans routing Western Michigan 49-14 and the Boilermakers edging Michigan 38-36. It's a very simple formula for MSU; win their final two games and the postseason looks bright. An even simpler formula would have been winning one of the games they lost by a single score and they had four such loss's. Kirk Cousins (22-25, 353) had a near perfect day leading the Spartans to a 35-0 lead before taking the rest of the afternoon off. He had zero problem doing anything he chose in what amounted to little more than a scrimmage. Michigan State dominated the ground game behind Ashton Leggett (14-110) and Edwin Baker (15-78) as seven players had carries against the Broncos. As expected the Spartans controlled the clock for over 37 minutes. The MSU defense easily handled the Western Michigan offense, giving up only 211 yards, 11 first downs and a 0-13 conversion rate on 3rd downs before easing up late in the second half. Purdue opened the year with a blowout win over Toledo and than lost four straight games by a single score in which they had the lead in each so it's no surprise they are on the outside looking in at the postseason. In many ways Purdue's game against Michigan mirrored their season with the back and forth and up and down play. Joey Elliot (28-39, 367) had an up and down day himself with 2 TD pass's and two picks but everything ended up for a change. The Boilermakers aren't known for their running but Ralph Bolden (16-98) gave them some punch in that area, enough to garner attention from the Wolverines D, but not enough to dominate the game. Purdue didn't exactly stop the Michigan offense and a look at the 36 points Michigan put up tells that story. The Boilermakers gave up 427 yards but made the play of the game when they stopped Michigan on a two point attempt that would have tied the score with 2 minutes remaining. Michigan State is 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 as a favorite of .5-3 points, 4-1 against the number in the past 5 as a road favorite and 4-1 ATS in the last 6 versus a team with a losing record. Purdue is 3-1-1 against the spread in their last 5 as a home underdog, 5-2 against the number in the past 7 as an underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an against the spread win. MSU has more to play for but the same could have been said for Ohio State a few weeks ago before they went out and had their lunch handed to them by these same Boilermakers. If somebody held a gun to my head, I couldn't definitively say which is the better squad. Of Course if it was a Michigan State fan I would say...
Michigan State -2
An ACC match up which has produced some exciting finishes resumes as the Miami Hurricanes travel to Chapel Hill to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels.
It’s been an up and down transitional season for North Carolina but they appear to be getting it together just at the right time. With six wins, the Heels are already bowl eligible and have been playing very good football of late. UNC has been depleted in several areas including wide receiver as many of their stars from a year ago went on to the greener pastures of the NFL. With T. J. Yates not having a great year at QB as he has 10 interceptions against only Nine touchdown passes, it has been the defense who has needed to step up. Butch Davis is one of the best recruiters in the history of the college game and as an ex defensive line coach for the Miami Hurricanes and Defensive Coordinator for Super Bowl winning Dallas Cowboys, Davis is no newcomer to knowing how to get it done. His defense is led by defensive lineman Marvin Austin who was one of the most highly recruited players in the country just a few years ago. Davis also has a strong special teams unit as he knows from his days under Jimmy Johnson, it is just as important as any unit on the team including the offense and the defense. North Carolina has won two in a row including a huge upset against previously top ten ranked Virginia Tech.
Miami head coach Randy Shannon used to play under Butch Davis when he was a player for the Canes and Davis was on the coaching staff and was treated to two lessons in a row in the last two meetings between these two schools. Shannon has a different kind of team this year as his rebuilding project is taking shape and Miami, though young, has proved they can play with anyone. Miami has had two convincing wins in a row and have won five of their last six. The Canes are still in the hunt to play in the ACC Title game but they are going to need to keep winning. They also have an outside chance of an at large BCS Bowl bid as well but that is more of a long shot. Miami’s best days and years are ahead of them as this team is mostly composed of Sophomores. Miami has a lot of injuries, many of them are star players. Some of the players like Ray Ray Armstrong and Season Spence could play this week, others are out much longer. Shannon’s team has the best depth they have had in some time so it will be interesting to see how they handle this adversity on the road.
North Carolina is 6-0 against the spread in their last six as a home underdog and 7-0 against the spread when playing teams with a winning record. Miami is just 4-10 in their last 14 as a road favorite but are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 overall.
The games the past two years between these two have come down to fantastic finishes and this one has that kind of potential, especially considering the injuries the Canes are playing with. North Carolina has some very good talent but I think Miami just has better overall team speed which should be enough to get them a cover on the road.
Pick: Miami -3
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