[WorkHorse]

There are three games this week matching top-12 teams. The one I would like to focus on in this thread is #12 Oklahoma traveling to #5 Baylor.

109 Oklahoma +14 (7-1, 4-4 ats)
110 Baylor -14 (7-0, 6-1 ats)

Oklahoma: ULM 34-0...W. Virginia 16-7...Tulsa 51-20...Notre Dame 35-21...TCU 20-17...*Texas 20-36...Kansas 34-19...Texas Tech 38-30.

Baylor: Wofford 69-3...Buffalo 70-13...ULM 70-7...W. Virginia 73-42...Kansas St. 35-25...Iowa St. 71-7...Kansas 59-14.

It's obvious looking at both team's schedules that one team scores a lot of points. Baylor leads the nation in scoring at 64 points per game. Knowing this, one game on Baylor's schedule that sticks out to me is the Kansas State game. K-State actually led Baylor 25-21 after three quarters before the Bears pulled away for the win. A key stat in the game was K-State controlling the ball 39:24 to Baylor's 20:36. Baylor's offense is explosive and can score from anywhere on the field...they are not a methodical driving team that has a lot of long drives so keeping the offense on the sideline is a a must for the Sooners.

My take is Oklahoma has to establish and be successful running the ball while eating as much clock as possible. The Sooners average 234 ypg rushing good for 15th in the nation. Baylor counters by allowing their opponents 134 ypg that ranks 26th nationally. If the Sooners fail to control the clock...I'm affraid Stoops and company will be in for a long day in Waco.

Just some thoughts........welcome yours. Who do you like in this one?

[Urbanwildlife]

As always, thanks my friend for the post and info. Number one, I have no faith in Bob Stoops, number two, the fact the game is being played in Waco on a Thursday night is a big plus for the Bears of Baylor, number 3, it is a statement game also for the Bears, and number four, I just do not see Oklahoma having the ability to keep pace with Baylor. Yes they are going to have to run the ball to control the game, but I expect to see Baylor come out with a vengence, and and if this is the case, Oklahoma is not going to be able to run the ball, as they will be playing catch up, and this is only going to allow Baylor to explode on offense even further. This is big bad Oklahoma coming to Waco, and do not think for a minute that the Bears are not going to be emotional about it, and play there best ball. They are better than the Sooners in every area of the game, offensive, defense, and special teams.

For me, I am very much looking forward to seeing the Bears put a big asss smack down on Stoops and his Sooners.

[WorkHorse]

Both teams are coming off a bye week so each should be pumped and rested. Even though Baylor has covered 10 of the last 13 meetings.....might just be their biggest game in years.

I agree if Baylor gets Oklahoma down early...it will be a difficult for the Sooners to keep up. Any team Baylor plays has to pick up their scoring or they're in trouble.

[15805]

I looked it up! Baylor has been playing football since 1899 and has never been ranked higher. The college football Atlas going up to 2007
states that its best player ever was Mike Singleterry that's pretty sad. I guess Griffin is considered the best now but Griffin never even came close to what this this team can achieve.

They have 5 games left with 4 of them in the top 25, if they run the table & I think they will Brice Petty will be remembered favorably in
Griffin comparisons.

[WorkHorse]

Numbers, I'm guessing it is an understatement to say this is a big game for the folks in Waco. Art Briles reminds me of an old Ex-Texas rodeo rider...but the dude can flat out coach.

I remember Singleterry at Baylor...that dude could flat out play and went on to have a great career with the Chicago Bears. As far as Brice Petty goes...I believe he is one of the most underrated QB's in the country.

Petty needs to stay healthy and play well the remainder of the season...if he does, Baylor has a chance to be in the hunt.

[WorkHorse]

....continuing with Baylor QB Brice Petty

122 of 176 for 2453 yards with 18 tds and 1 int.

He is the No. 1 rated QB in the nation going into Thursday night with the Sooners.

[Urbanwildlife]

Bump

[M.W.]

The college football Atlas going up to 2007 states that its best player ever was Mike Singleterry that's pretty sad.

You must be really young.

[WorkHorse]

M.W.............. I like the young guys who are searching/providing information for ALL here at SBR to consider.

Kudos to NUMBERS........what's your offering M.W other than ...........?

[Urbanwildlife]

The more I am looking at this Baylor game Workhorse, the more I am really really liking it. Also take a look at the Ball State game on Wednesday night, as well as Bowling Green tomorrow night.

Bowling Green has a pretty good defense and can put some points up on the board, even though they have struggled to do so in there past two games, but that should change tomorrow night against a weak Miami of Ohio team. Also Miami of Ohio has the 2nd worse offense in college football this season and this will continue going against a good Bowling Green defense.

Ball State is a very strong team whom I have followed closely all year. They are coming off a bye week with the opportunity to win the MAC West in its sight, so no letting down here. Central Michigan on the other hand is not a strong defensive team and they give up lots of yardage which plays right into the hands of Ball State. I might add that Central Michigan also has been off almost 3 weeks, and I have always found this to be more harmful than good, which is why I am not a big player come bowl games.

[TexasJayhawk]

Urban, def with you on that Baylor game.

That being said I see the potential for Oklahoma keeping this within 2 TD's very real.
Obviously on offense they're going to mimic what they did last year and what K State did against BU earlier this year (long time-consuming drives with lots of rushing, etc).

Another thing that concerns me is Oklahoma's 3-3-5 defensive alignment (specifically meant to limit/slow down spread offenses) and how they tend to stack their 3 DL's and 3 LB's on the line to disguise blitzes.
Baylor will most likely have to run the ball down the middle (similar to what UT in their victory) as OU secondary can limit/slow down Baylor's WR's as well as cut off Petty throwing screens and quick outs. While Baylor will get some big runs, it will drastically slow down their offense, thereby eliminating the chance that they shut OU out.

That all being said, this is Baylor's time to shine...prime time game, insane crowd (recently announced they're taking off the tarp to allow more seating), ample time to prepare for OU off a bye, etc, etc.
I see Baylor winning (probably a 10-13 point margin) but not as much as everyone thinks.

[Urbanwildlife]

Good job TexasJayhawk!

[Overbettor]

Urban, def with you on that Baylor game.

That being said I see the potential for Oklahoma keeping this within 2 TD's very real.
Obviously on offense they're going to mimic what they did last year and what K State did against BU earlier this year (long time-consuming drives with lots of rushing, etc).

Another thing that concerns me is Oklahoma's 3-3-5 defensive alignment (specifically meant to limit/slow down spread offenses) and how they tend to stack their 3 DL's and 3 LB's on the line to disguise blitzes.
Baylor will most likely have to run the ball down the middle (similar to what UT in their victory) as OU secondary can limit/slow down Baylor's WR's as well as cut off Petty throwing screens and quick outs. While Baylor will get some big runs, it will drastically slow down their offense, thereby eliminating the chance that they shut OU out.

That all being said, this is Baylor's time to shine...prime time game, insane crowd (recently announced they're taking off the tarp to allow more seating), ample time to prepare for OU off a bye, etc, etc.
I see Baylor winning (probably a 10-13 point margin) but not as much as everyone thinks.

Obviously most people love Baylor overs and I am no different but your post has me concerned. Do you think this game goes over?

[BigdaddyQH]

Work, the thing that will kill Oklahoma is their absolutely terrible passing game, which ranks 92nd in the nation. Baylor's pass defense ranks 6th in the nation. Baylor simply overloads the line and stops OU's running game in it's tracks. 14 points is a lot to give, but I just cannot wager on a rather poor OU team that barely got past TCU at home, then got beat up by Texas, and then trailed Kansas before finally pulling away late.

[Mcsmush]

Baylor is a alot to handle here. Especially away from the comforts of your home and in the bears den. OU just faced a good passing program in TTU but were able to hang back because TTU simply does not run. To be honest even hanging back the defense let up a lot! They wont have that luxury in Waco as Baylor can tote the rock. No means am I a super pro at game film, but if you watch Baylor they pounce on that split second indecision by defenses. When the crowd is working with you its that much more lethal.

Bears average 70.6 points per game at home. I dont see them hitting the average but they could light up the scoreboard and cause OU to try and press the passing game which happens to be their weakness.

I really like Baylor in this game.

[Urbanwildlife]

Good job Mcsmuch!

[Mcsmush]

Thanks....

Also Workhorse since we shared a variant of this trend in another thread, I wanted to place this in yours.

The nations Top 3 scoring offenses (Baylor, Oregon, Fsu) are currently 19-4 ATS. I dont mind riding that donkey until it kicks!

[k1ko]

line getting juiced up... at -15 in some places

[M.W.]

M.W.............. I like the young guys who are searching/providing information for ALL here at SBR to consider.

Kudos to NUMBERS........what's your offering M.W other than ...........?

Look, that poster's comment about Mike Singletary was ridiculous. Two-time NFL defensive player of the year, etc., etc.

[Urbanwildlife]

Look, your comment about Mike Singletary was ridiculous.

It was not at all, and the fact of the matter it is your post that is ridiculous and the fact you are continuing to waste time on the subject.

[15805]

Look, that poster's comment about Mike Singletary was ridiculous. Two-time NFL defensive player of the year, etc., etc.

Look, I'm certainly not young and the thing that struck me was that the player named the best player in Baylor history up to 2007 as picked by the College Football Encyclopedia was a linebacker, no offense to Singletary a top notcher but one else was even mentioned. Compare that to the other teams in the conference where in some cases 3 to 5 players had to be mentioned. Compare that with Texas choices
Earl Campbell, Tommy Nobis & Bobby Lane. Oklahoma Billy Sims, Steve Owens, Billy Vessels, Leroy Selmon & Jerry Tubbs & TCU's
Sammy Baugh, Davey O'Brien, Jim Swink & Ladanian Tomlinson & its the same throughout the entire conference maybe with the exception of Rice.

I was merely suggesting that compared to there other conference members Baylor historically was the doormat. The last few years under Briles they changed things around and this is the high water mark for Baylor football. Baylor's record vs. Oklahoma is 1 win 21 losses,
for them to be a 14 pt. favorite against this team that historically stuffs Baylor is stunning.

[Urbanwildlife]

and that 14 now 15 to 15.5 line at some places is a credit to one of the best coaches in the business, and one of my favorite, Art Briles.

[BigdaddyQH]

Briles is an ecellend offensive minded HC, but knows nothing about defenses. Ask Oregon how far that gets you. Sometimes, all the way to the NC game, but NEVER to the promised land. For Baylor to get there, three of the Top 4 teams have to lose, and that is simply not going to happen.

[15805]

Briles is an ecellend offensive minded HC, but knows nothing about defenses. Ask Oregon how far that gets you. Sometimes, all the way to the NC game, but NEVER to the promised land. For Baylor to get there, three of the Top 4 teams have to lose, and that is simply not going to happen.

Agree, but say Oregon plays Alabama in the championship game and its a tight game and Baylor goes undefeated and beats Fla State
in one of the BCS bowls then: Baylor may get the #1 rating from either the 2 big polls USA Today or AP, similar to what USC did about 6 years ago & make it a split championship. I know its a long shot but it isn't that far fetched.

[playmaker79]

I looked it up! Baylor has been playing football since 1899 and has never been ranked higher. The college football Atlas going up to 2007
states that its best player ever was Mike Singleterry that's pretty sad.

there are a lot of sad things about Baylor football over the years. Claiming someone like Mike singletary as a best ever anything is certainly not one of them. Do you actually know who mike singletary was?

[15805]

there are a lot of sad things about Baylor football over the years. Claiming someone like Mike singletary as a best ever anything is certainly not one of them. Do you actually know who mike singletary was?

Chicago linebacker in the 80's, Baylor All-American & former 49'ers head coach. As I wrote the Encyclopedia of College Football I bought at a garage sale a few years back was
a 2007 edition! I imagine now Robert Griffin would top the list. If however the Bears run the table this season
Brice Petty and/or Leche S. would have to be considered at or near the top of all Baylor ballplayers. After all this will be the 1st time Baylor will ever be favored over Oklahoma, this team is special and Bryce & Leche have a lot to do with that.

Anything else?

[TexasJayhawk]

Obviously most people love Baylor overs and I am no different but your post has me concerned. Do you think this game goes over?

My personal take is that this game doesn't go over. Oklahoma #1 goal in this game will be to kill as much clock as possible. Also Baylor will have to run the ball more (which they're obviously great at) which will consume more of the clock. I see Baylor scoring somewhere between 35-40 points and OU at maybe 24-28 points.

[coitus_maximus]

I do agree that this game will be lower scoring, but Baylor will still have tempo. What we do see that is that OU may not be as good against the pass as we thought. Texas Tech was speeding up tempo a bit and OU had a hard time keeping up. I see Baylor doing this better and then a long run to bite OU. I have a hard time seeing how OU can match offense at all. I could see Baylor using several passes and killing it with the run. I can definitely see a 2 TD score difference in this game.

[zoso11871]

73% of the ML bets are on the Sooners right now (44% ATS). I'm going to bet with the minority on the ML. Baylor -600.

[Husker36]

Baylor's stadium holds 44,000. Very small. How many will be OU fans? 5,000? More? I just don't think that "home field advantage" is very strong here. Just FYI. Still not sure who I like.

[Husker36]

Anyone betting on Baylor is betting on something that has never happened.....Baylor UPSET Oklahoma in 2011.... winning by 7 as a 16.5 dog. Oklahoma has OWNED Baylor. 14.5 seems like too much to me. Results since 2003........

11/10/12	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/results/2012-2013/boxscore32147.html	BAY 21	O 74.5		460	183	277	424	252	172
11/19/11	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/results/2011-2012/boxscore30340.html	BAY 16.5	O 74.5		605	158	447	616	131	485
11/20/10	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/results/2010-2011/boxscore28909.html	OKLA -8	O 64		462	109	353	361	237	124
10/10/09	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/results/2009-2010/boxscore26965.html	BAY 27.5	U 52		586	197	389	268	6	262
10/04/08	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/results/2008-2009/boxscore25769.html	OKLA -24	O 61.5		594	217	377	269	194	75
11/10/07	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/results/2007-2008/boxscore24439.html	BAY 38.5	O 56.5		533	180	353	450	170	280
11/18/06	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/results/2006-2007/boxscore22977.html	OKLA -20	U 51		414	236	178	140	-48	188
10/22/05	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/results/2005-2006/boxscore20962.html x	BAY 14	O 39.5		474	205	269	291	63	228
11/20/04	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/results/2004-2005/boxscore17934.html	BAY 36	U 58.5		501	302	199	156	26
11/15/03	covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/results/2003-2004/boxscore16880.html

[k1ko]

Baylor's stadium holds 44,000. Very small. How many will be OU fans? 5,000? More? I just don't think that "home field advantage" is very strong here. Just FYI. Still not sure who I like.

believe me its going to be rocking. attendance record will be shattered and all fans will be in black. baylor does well at home. Since 2011, they are 17-1 at home.

[irish1]

73% of the ML bets are on the Sooners right now (44% ATS). I'm going to bet with the minority on the ML. Baylor -600.

Anyone who goes ML with this game either has big balls or no brains.

[Mcsmush]

Past is past and plays a very small role in anything.... However since it has been brought up. What I see since 2004 Baylor is 6-3 ATS in this game. (7-3 if you want to use the + 54.5 Baylor was in 03)

As it has already shown this year Vegas love to overestimate OU (4-4 ATS).

As far as controlling the clock so be it. Baylor's average time of possession per game is 26:03 per game ( good for 121st in the nation), and I am already sure you heard they average 63.9 per. Controlling the clock doesn't look to be a huge factor as they don't need much time to do what they are set out to do.

[k1ko]

btw if you want a great writeup (although biased obviously) check this article out. He uses a lot of the footballoutsiders metrics but it was well done. my personal opinion is that the one question mark is the baylor defense. Are they much improved from last year? Still hard to tell. The baylor offense will get their points guranteed, its just the defense that is suspect if they can hold oklahoma down at all.

http://www.ourdailybears.com/2013/11...how-to-beat-ou