HARRY'S WEEK #10 "TOTAL PACKAGE" (28-11 on the season)
Managed to go 3-2 last week to bring the season tally to 28-11 betting college football totals. I've had 6 winning weeks, 2 "push" weeks, and 1 losing week. This week's play are as follows....
LOUISIANA TECH/BOISE STATE - OVER 50 (Friday night)
We all know that these weeknight home dogs have had a lot of bite the past few seasons. That said, I would expect a spirited effort from the Bulldogs, a 21-point underdog. They have a pretty good rushing attack and will probably manage to pop in a few. But it won't be enough. They don't have the defense to stop this juggernaut Broncos squad, averaging 41 ppg. Boise State continues on their mission to impress the BCS pollsters with a thumping in the bayou. OVER.
GEORGIA TECH/WAKE FOREST - UNDER 62-
I don't think anyone wants to play this Ramblin' Wreck team right about now. They're averaging over 300 ypg on the ground, number 1 in the country. With the option attack comes a constantly ticking clock and the possibility for turnovers. I thind GT will win today, but by less than predicted, and UNDER the total.
ALABAMA/LSU - UNDER 39
Don't ordinarily like to play the under on these low posted over/unders, but my math model has the final total of this game in the 20s. 'Bama is only giving up 11 ppg, while LSU is allowing 12. The Tigers figure to give an all-out effort today, but Bama's D is just too tough. UNDER.
NORTH CAROLINA/DUKE - OVER 43
The Tarheel's D has been awesome this year. That's why the number is so low. This is a backyard brawl though and a dog-dominated series (19-8 ats) and I don't see anything holding to form. Duke is going to be completely unable to move the ball on the ground and will be forced to do what they do best....pass. They've been averaging over 325 ypg through the air. Both teams are going to score and this one will go up and OVER.
UNLV/COLORADO STATE - OVER 61-
Two very disappointing teams playing a night game in the desert. Both coaches are barely clinging on to their jobs. What's the point in being conservative? The charts show that Colorado State has the 110th ranked pass efficiency defense in the country. The Rebels, believe it or not, are worse...at 117th. I see a scenario where both teams move the ball at will and the total reaches into the 70s.
SAN DIEGO STATE/TCU - OVER 47-
The Horned Frogs' defense has been super, only allowing 11 ppg this year. But today they face a pass-happy Aztecs team that's been averaging 278 ypg through the air. The home team will put up some points, probably about 2 TDs. TCU is favored by over 24 points. Acutely aware of how much they are projected to win by, they will do everything in their power to cover the spread (to impress BCS pollsters). They can score as many as they need to against this generous San Diego State defense. Go OVER.
As always, best of luck.
Harry
2009 college football sides (36-26) 2009 college football "totals" (28-11)
Harry - I like the Boise pick. What do you think about UVa-Miami over 46.5? It seems that Miami has no trouble scoring but their defense is all sorts of banged up.
Also, I'd be careful with any GT under. Their defense is very suspect but their offense is unstoppable. Doesn't matter if they're an option team if they're ripping them off at 10-20 yards a clip, which they tend to do.
TCU has been money the past 4 weeks if you bet their games to go under. Their defense has been getting the job done, especially last week where they shut out a fairly prolific UNLV offense. But that was at home....for the homecoming game. It's their offense that hasn't been getting any attention. They're better than you might think, averaging 35 ppg. San Diego State lost their top receiver last week, which hurts here, but I still maintain they will not be able to run on these Horned Frogs, so they must go to the air. Sooner or later they'll probably pop one or two in, which will only make TCU have to score more. Their coach knows what the spread is.....he reads the USA Today.
As for the Miami game....I've been impressed with OC Whipple's game plan all season. This is a team I like to bet 'over'. But these Cavaliers have been a head scratcher for me. They don't have much of an offense. The Hurricanes should handle them with ease, but my numbers have the game coming in around 31-17, close to the spread and total.....so for me, no play.
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HARRY'S WEEK #10 "TOTAL PACKAGE" (28-11 on the season)
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