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Machine Report: Rutgers vs Army
The last time Army was at home, they stunned Vanderbilt and tied their win total from all of last year. It is clear to me that Army coach Ellerson is instilling some fight and pride into this team.
Tonight's game sees two teams in polar opposite spots: Army is coming in off a loss that they want to forget in order to recapture their post-Vandy euphoria. They go into a bye week next week, so this game is it for them. Rutgers comes in off a close conference loss and may be looking ahead to UCONN next week. After crushing Army last year, Rutgers is probably not too fired up for this one. However, this is Army's superbowl and only time on ESPN besides the Army/Navy game.
I have no doubt that Rutgers will be able to completely contain Army's offense. Army is completely one dimensional and Rutgers handled them last year. That said, I do expect Army to get at least 13 points in this game due to home field and a flat Rutgers team who may not be really ready in the 1H. Expect Army to try to get a gadget bomb down the field early in the 1Q since Rutgers will be loading the box.
What is more interesting to me is how Army's defense will do against Rutgers's offense. Simply put, Rutgers has no offense. Do not confuse this Rutgers team with the teams that had Price and Teel. This team is fielding a QB tonight who is a true frosh making his first ever road start. Army's defense is legitimate. They held a Cutcliffe-coached Duke team to less than 19 until two late INTs that were returned for scores. They held Vandy to 13 points. They are giving up less yards per game than Rutgers this year despite playing a tougher schedule so far than Rutgers. Yes, its true. Run the numbers and you'll see that Army's opponents, on net, are tougher so far than Rutgers's.
Looking at Rutgers's scoring output, don't be deceived by the Maryland game. One of those scores came on a pick-six, the other one was a fumble recovery in the end zone. Take those away, and Rutgers only scored 20 points against a terrible Maryland team. Rutgers only scored 23 points at home against an FIU team giving up 500 yards per game this year!
What I see here is simple: a highly motivated Army team versus a Rutgers team who will probably be flat and overconfident. I see a decent Army defense matched up against a poor offense. I see a poor Army offense matched up against a decent (NOT GREAT) defense.
Army will score 13 tonight, so that means Rutgers needs 24-25 points to cover (depending on your line). With Army spinning the clock with their triple option, and with Schiano only needing a conservative run-based game plan to beat Army, I see Rutgers scoring 20 points or less while limiting their true frosh's downfiled throws in his first road game.
My play: Army plus the points (waiting to kickoff to hopefully get +12 or +13)
HoulihansTX gave Machine Choice 10 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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Originally Posted by SmackdownV
just like the line will hit 12 or 13... still at 11...
