[suicidekings]

i personally think horrible NCAAF teams improving is the easiest way to make money, perhaps in all of sports better...

or maybe it's betting non-BCS conferences...........

The problem with this is that you just don't know what you're going to get from these teams with any confidence. Like I said above, when everything about a team's game is tagged as "needs improvement", you're basing your prediction on too many assumptions.

Maybe this can work with season wins props though. I don't really play those.

[suicidekings]

4) Wisconsin Badgers

Everyone has pretty much handed the Leaders division to the Buckeyes at this point, without really offering a chance to the rest of the division. That's not a totally unreasonable position, but I think you really have to give a lot of consideration to the Badgers as legitimate contenders. Last season, they were much better than their 8-6 record indicated. They finished the year 16th in overall F/+ ranking (28th in offense, 14th in defense). That's actually a pretty outstanding result for a team that lost Russell Wilson, Paul Chryst (OC), three starting offensive linemen, and their top WR. Overall, in the last 20 years, the Badgers have had 18 winning seasons, eight 10-win seasons, six top-10 finishes, and six Rose Bowl appearances. It's the most productive era Wisconsin has ever experienced, spanning two different head coaches.

Enter Gary Anderson. In short, the work he did at Utah State over the last few seasons was one of the most effective rebuilds any team has ever experienced. As a defensive-minded coach, he transformed USU from a 102nd rank defensive F/+ team to 9th in his final year, on the way to an 11 win season. Prior to that, as the DC for the Utah Utes, the team recorded two unbeaten seasons (working under Urban Meyer/Kyle Whittingham), showing his success at USU was not a fluke. It took time for him to transform the Aggies because he inherited a poorly run program, but ultimately his skill set became apparent. The big difference this time is he's coming to a top level program that already has most of the pieces in place to build an elite team.

Defensively, Wisconsin is absolutely stacked this season. Starting with the addition of Gary Anderson and Dave Aranda, the Badgers are going to be formidable for any offense to overcome. They have a surplus of defensive linemen and linebackers, with the two units being anchored by NT Beau Allen and ILB Chris Borland, who are among the best the Big 10 have to offer. The secondary is Wisconsin's one defensive weakness, as they will be breaking in some inexperienced players with FS Dezmen Southward anchoring the unit.

Another consideration for the Badgers defense is that they will be switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 this year under Aranda's system. This is a change that can cause problems for some teams, but I really think Wisconsin will experience a smooth transition as they have the personnel available to do what their new DC wants to do. In short, Aranda's style is extremely aggressive. From the base 3-4 scheme, he will sometimes operate with a 4 or 5 man front. He believes in utilizing an aggressive pass rush and loves to make use of zone blitzing schemes to disrupt opposing offenses. All in all, I think Aranda's style of play will mesh extremely well with the Badgers' personnel to produce an elite defensive unit.

Offensively, there are more questions surrounding the team, starting with who will win the starting quarterback role. Right now, I think Curt Philips has the inside track on Joel Stave, as he's been the most effective QB in the fall practices. The team is conducting their final scrimmage on Monday (Aug 19th) and the players performances in that game will probably clinch the position. At running back, Wisconsin has to replace one of the greatest CFB running backs of all time in Montee Ball, but the team has several solid options available. James White and Melvin Gordon are projected to be an effective tandem in the backfield this year, having handled themselves well last year in limited opportunities. We can definitely expect to see them being asked to carry the ball a lot on a Gary Anderson team. Among receivers, there's a lot to be proven, with the one standout option being Jared Abbrederis.

All in all, I'm very optimistic about this team having a great 2013 season. I think the pieces are available to ultimately produce a team that can perform at a very high level. In terms of schedule, they don't have it easy, but with the exception of the trip to Columbus on Sept 28th, all of their games are very winnable. The real benefit of Wisconsin for me is that I doubt they'll receive a lot of respect in the betting market, and so I expect to get good value on them throughout the course of the season. They're unlikely to be making a big offensive splash, but much like MSU, this is a team that can lean heavily on their defense and if they play smart, mistake-free football, their offense only needs to be decent for them to have a great chance at a 10+ win season. All they need is for Ohio State to stumble once to have a chance at a share of the Leaders division.