[doctordeuce]

I think that UNC +12, Toledo +21, FAU +31, and Clemson -1.5 all have values in week one considering that Georgia/S. Car play a huge conference game in week 2 and Florida playing at Miami in week 2. UNC hosts MTSU the following week, FAU travels to E. Car, Toledo travels to Missouri, while Clemson hosts S. Carolina St. There is no way Florida (with the recent news of Driskel and Matt Jones missing a few weeks of camp) or Miami will be able to concentrate fully, as their match up in week 2 is a huge look ahead for both programs. South Carolina should be happy with a single digit win versus UNC, as they won't want to show too much for Georgia the following week. Georgia will be amped to play Clemson, but I think that the Georgia D will be on the losing end of a shootout.

[Devin22]

Good stuff. I agree on most. Not sure about Georgia/Clemson though. At least not yet.

[Devin22]

Here is my issue with Georgia. They tend to play so-so in the beginning of the year. So unless I see something different then this will be a big toss up.

[suicidekings]

Agreed on Clemson. I'm inclined to believe that the Gamecocks will show up bigtime in Week 1 though. A statement win against UNC is important to them for their season.

[SamDiamond]

I'm not sure I like this angle, "looking ahead to week 2".

Only because--- kids are so amped to start the season, so ready to go, I think they are razor focused to open a year.

Now, they may make first game mistakes, but I don't think they peak ahead. I think kids are just flying with emotion to play that first week.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i see reference to these types of angles alot...

does it work?

i've never really looked into it, as i don't consider it too quantifiable (i.e. historical study, although i guess i could just define some rivalries)

not crazy about week 1 as per sam's reasons or for very late in the season traditional games (i could be very wrong about this) but i can check out games before florida/georgia, michigan/wisconsin, fsu/clemson, usc/oregon etc.)

[gojetsgomoxies]

is there someone who has tried to quantify this in the past?

i'm happy to do the work to backtest and share, if people can give me some parameters.

[BigdaddyQH]

I think it depens on the head coach. How long will he play his starters if the game gets out of hand? How much will teams like UGA and South Carolina show on offense with a huge showdown game the following week? Which coaches like to run up the score, and which ones are satisfied with a "win and get out" scenario. I do use the "looking ahead" angle, but it is just one of many angles I use.

[suicidekings]

I think it depens on the head coach. How long will he play his starters if the game gets out of hand? How much will teams like UGA and South Carolina show on offense with a huge showdown game the following week? Which coaches like to run up the score, and which ones are satisfied with a "win and get out" scenario. I do use the "looking ahead" angle, but it is just one of many angles I use.

That's the thing about betting against top level teams though. They typically don't need to show you their whole playbook to get the blowout.

[Devin22]

I think Florida will be happy with a win. I do not see a big blow out win for Florida over Toledo. They are dealing with offense line injuries and the starting running back Matt Jones is sick with serious viral gastro illness. But we are still too far out from the game to put my stamp on it yet.

[nickeydyme]

workhorse has nice post a few days ago...since spurrier has been at USCe they are 7-1 su week before Georgia and have gone 5-3 ats in those games

[M.W.]

i see reference to these types of angles alot...

does it work?

Yes, absolutely.

[doctordeuce]

S. Carolina will be amped up versus UNC, but UNC will be equally amped. Renner is a veteran QB and will be able to make some throws, and I see UNC being able to put up some points. The ACC teams realize that week 1 is huge versus the SEC for their conference.

As for FAU (I do not know much about their squad this year, but 31 points is alot) and Miami will loose focus in the game...looking ahead to hosting the Gators is just too much not to look ahead to.

[gojetsgomoxies]

as an example, what is a showdown game for georgia or florida? obv each other, alabama and LSU in recent years. tennessee in past years. FSU for florida, GT for georgia...

to me it just seems hard to quantify.............. are you looking at rivalry games or big games? or rivalry games and really big games?

[nickeydyme]

Unc is better version of Indiana and worse version ok state. ..s Carolina has one of best secondaries in cfb

[thetrinity]

clemson georgia is the showcase game of week 1, no way anyone is looking ahead in that game.

other 3 games possible although everyone is usually fired up for game 1.