[Dbldown11]

This line is SHOCKING to me.....what am I missing?????

[JMUplayer]

All depends is Simpson plays for UVA.

[wal66]

DblDown it does look pretty easy huh. I think it looks too easy unfortunately. I know what my program says about the game and with the line opening significantly lower than my computed line makes me have to really look into this game from several angles.

[BigdaddyQH]

I see no reason at all, other than the fact that Virginia is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 at home against Ga.Tech, has covered in every game except one this year, and is 5-1 ATS in their past 6 against Tech. Even with all that, it is very peculiar why this line is at-4 instead of -7 or more.

[ackem19]

I'm actually on UVA this week even though GT made me some cash last week. UVA is at home, getting points, it's October (where Al Groh is 3-0 so far this year), and they've proven they can limit the so-called "perfect-option" by only allowing 156, 121, and 105 rushing yards in each of their last 3 meetings, respectively. I was skeptical about UVA 3 weeks ago, and it wasn't until somebody told me to "look up Al Groh's record in October, it's the one time of the year he saves his job." 3 weeks later, that is apparent to me.

[stats13]

Well, here are a few things to toss out there. First, throw out any historical records vs UVA or @ charlottesville, cuz that will be digging into Ball/Bennett/Godsey/Bilbo/Chan statistics. This is the Paul Johnson era and Nesbitt is the toughest college football player I recall seeing. He's absolutely stepped up to the next level. A major difference between this tech team and years past is the emotion that paul johnson brings, the team never shows up sleepwalking. The few games tech has lost in the last year and a half have been games where they got simply outathleted by the defense. With the way the option and Nesbitt are rolling right now, I don't see that happening. I might buy this down to -3 or put it in some teasers if you are scared, but Tech SHOULD win this game.

[JMUplayer]

Ga Tech cannot throw at all....

[ackem19]

Well, here are a few things to toss out there. First, throw out any historical records vs UVA or @ charlottesville, cuz that will be digging into Ball/Bennett/Godsey/Bilbo/Chan statistics. This is the Paul Johnson era and Nesbitt is the toughest college football player I recall seeing. He's absolutely stepped up to the next level. A major difference between this tech team and years past is the emotion that paul johnson brings, the team never shows up sleepwalking. The few games tech has lost in the last year and a half have been games where they got simply outathleted by the defense. With the way the option and Nesbitt are rolling right now, I don't see that happening. I might buy this down to -3 or put it in some teasers if you are scared, but Tech SHOULD win this game.

last year, this was Paul Johnson's team as well and they had Josh Nesbitt when they played UVA. therefore I do feel that the stats matter and i in addition, i think that this is a great Let-Down spot for GT much like when Houston played UTEP earlier this year. Houston really wanted the win against TT and after they got it, they let down their guard against UTEP and lost outright on the road. Same scenario for GT, big win over important opponent, then a favorite on the road.

[HoulihansTX]

Let-Down spot warning. Let-Down spot warning.

Viginia does this every year. Start slow, then have a signature win toward mid-season. The line is low because GT's road defense is none existent. Plus if GT has to play w/o a lead, they really don't have a way to score quick.

Virgina/GT score last year.... 24-17 Virgina, while @ GT.

[HoulihansTX]

Let me add that the ACC is like the Big Ten. They are both coin-flips, and the advantage should be given to the home team at all times.

[Ca$hfloW]

wont be touching the game

[saltwatercowboy]

Something about going to Charlottesville that Georgia Tech just can't seem to do. I'm not really big on trends but the Yellow Jackets haven't won there since 1980. Al Groh also always seems to do just enough in October and November to keep his job after dreadful starts. Last year, Virginia came to Atlanta as 14 point dogs and managed to pull off the outright victory 24-17. The year before that, Tech went to Charlottesville as (cough) 4 point favorites and lost the game by 5. Looks strikingly similar to past meetings this year. Even though Tech has looked great and Virginia has been mediocre at best, it will be Virginia and the points for me in this one. Good Luck with whatever you decide.

[saltwatercowboy]

Another angle I like to play is to go against (no matter the number) teams coming off of upset/big wins. Since Georgia Tech just knocked off Va Tech on national tv, I think Vegas inflates the line a little to give you better value in the opposing team the next week. Other examples of this this week would be Purdue. They just beat Ohio St and while Illinois has done absolutely nothing to show they are even competitive, I think you get better value with them this week than Purdue. Arkansas as well. People saw them push a Florida team that was emotionally drained from a tough game at LSU. I will be fading them this week and laying the 5 with Ole Miss. Just some thoughts.

[Dbldown11]

thanks for the input guys...from what I'm seeing though the main reason people are liking virginia is because of past results in this series. I'm a big proponent of paying attention to what's happend this year. And this year virginia lost at home to william and mary, and frankly I think they are getting too much credit for winning 3 straight against mediocre to BAD teams. I've gotta go with the Yello Jackets giving up so few points

[HoulihansTX]

thanks for the input guys...from what I'm seeing though the main reason people are liking virginia is because of past results in this series. I'm a big proponent of paying attention to what's happend this year. And this year virginia lost at home to william and mary, and frankly I think they are getting too much credit for winning 3 straight against mediocre to BAD teams. I've gotta go with the Yello Jackets giving up so few points

GL.

[Jackets_Fan]

A few rebuttals to make:

1. "hey've proven they can limit the so-called "perfect-option" by only allowing 156, 121, and 105 rushing yards in each of their last 3 meetings". Paul Johnson has only faced UVA once - and therefore, we weren't running the 'perfect' option in 2006 and 2007.

2. "Plus if GT has to play w/o a lead, they really don't have a way to score quick." This must be a joke. Did you see the FSU game two weeks ago? Did you see the second half of the UGA game last year? We're top 5 in the country in TD plays over 50 yds.

3. "but the Yellow Jackets haven't won there since 1980." We haven't won up there since 1990.

Now, that being said, yes this is clearly a trap/let down game. I completely agree with Jimmy Buffett about playing against teams off a big, prime time win. Additionally, UVA also beat the heck out of us last year after we jumped out to a 14-3 lead. UVA is playing good football right now and Vegas has been offering some favorable spreads b/c people can't get over the first week of the season. Since week two, UVA is 3-1 with its only loss coming against a top-10 team. The line is fishy as hell and often lines like this are too good to be true. Under Chan Gailey this is a game we lose; HOWEVER, this is a different team and a different coach.

Yes our road defense has been flat out embarrassing, but does UVA have the offense to capitalize on that? Look at their season stats. Also look at there season stats disregarding the IU game - pretty bad. UVA's defense is playing very well, but they also benefited from lots of TOs. Additionally, I'm not sure how good UNC, IU, and Maryland's offenses really are.

Finally, although this line looks too good to be true, sometimes Vegas just plain misjudges teams. Alabama was a 4 point favorite against Ole Miss. (We now know that) Alabama covers that spread 9 out of 10 times, but people were nervous about playing it b/c it looked too good to be true. Just my 2 cents.

[wal66]

thanks for the input guys...from what I'm seeing though the main reason people are liking virginia is because of past results in this series. I'm a big proponent of paying attention to what's happend this year. And this year virginia lost at home to william and mary, and frankly I think they are getting too much credit for winning 3 straight against mediocre to BAD teams. I've gotta go with the Yello Jackets giving up so few points

DblDown not trying to convince you of anything here but ask yourself. Yesterday before the lines came out what would you have set this line at? Georgia Tech ran amuck on FSU and just beat the team many expected to win the conference in Virginia Tech and now they are playing lowly Virginia. What line would you have put on this game knowing that the general public is freshly remember that they just beat VIRGINIA TECH. Average Joe isn't even thinking back to the loss to Virginiw last year or the fact that in that game Virginia held that running attack of G-Tech to just 156 yards all they have in their minds is Georgia Tech just beat VIRGINIA TECH.

Like I said I am 100% not trying to change your mind just trying to give you something to think about other than what has already been said.

Trust me I was gonna jump all over them initially until I took a timeout and started thinking like I used to think. While the gifts are still out there when you know where to look sometimes even are avaialable even if your just passing by early in the season, when it gets in the middle to the end of the season the gifts aren't so nice generally.

Respect bro.

[Dbldown11]

DblDown not trying to convince you of anything here but ask yourself. Yesterday before the lines came out what would you have set this line at? Georgia Tech ran amuck on FSU and just beat the team many expected to win the conference in Virginia Tech and now they are playing lowly Virginia. What line would you have put on this game knowing that the general public is freshly remember that they just beat VIRGINIA TECH. Average Joe isn't even thinking back to the loss to Virginiw last year or the fact that in that game Virginia held that running attack of G-Tech to just 156 yards all they have in their minds is Georgia Tech just beat VIRGINIA TECH.

Like I said I am 100% not trying to change your mind just trying to give you something to think about other than what has already been said.

Trust me I was gonna jump all over them initially until I took a timeout and started thinking like I used to think. While the gifts are still out there when you know where to look sometimes even are avaialable even if your just passing by early in the season, when it gets in the middle to the end of the season the gifts aren't so nice generally.

Respect bro.

Yeah i deffinately see what you're saying....I'll probably lay off for a while and see where people are putting their bets and where the line moves

[twincities77]

Some more present day angles for you Dbl:

Virginia actually has a pretty solid defense. Georgia Tech has one of the worst defenses for a BCS conference team in the country. Georgia Tech is flashy and gimmicky on offense, so they may get more credit than they deserve. As others have said they're ripe for a letdown. Also, look at the three games they've played on the road this year. They got stomped by Miami; they beat Miss St. by 11 (a team considered to be near, if not at, the bottom of the SEC), and they beat an unraveling FSU team (with no defense to speak of) by 5. Virginia is now in the bowl hunt (realistically) and I expect them to be amped up for this game all around.

[Jackets_Fan]

twincities, agree with all your points except one. "Gimmicky" on offense? An honest question, have you watched a Tech game all the way through in the past two years (since Johnson has been coach)?

[stats13]

[twincities77]

twincities, agree with all your points except one. "Gimmicky" on offense? An honest question, have you watched a Tech game all the way through in the past two years (since Johnson has been coach)?

I mean with the triple option, not that they call a bunch of wacky plays necessarily. My point is, lots of folks know what GT runs, but how many people know what UNC runs? Or Virginia? I'm sure some people know all of them, but the idea is it's a highly publicized offense.

[stats13]

Nesbitt is playing at another level right now. He's the toughest SOB in college football I'm sure of it.

[Jackets_Fan]

Fair point - I agree with that (although GT is 12th in the nation in total offense, so the team does at least live up to some of the hype).

I agree with you that I think our defense lays an egg against UVA. I'm just not sold that UVA can capitalize on it enough to win.

And yes, Nesbitt is a man out there. True leader.

[iLogan]

Nesbitt is playing at another level right now. He's the toughest SOB in college football I'm sure of it.

GT minus the points

[stats13]

keep in mind GT is coming off back to back games as a dog that they won outright. here's my point, and i'm sure many will disagree- but IMO, Linesmakers don't show GT much love on lines, usually.

[mooncricket89]

i sometimes try to ignore my experience within a college football program, but from that perspective, i would definitely put weight on the here and now, only points scored this year matter, and all of the past stats are definitely necessary to keep in mind, but don't disregard the fact that the GT coaching staff also have access to that information, needless to say but to an even greater extent than any of us, and not only are this season's players aware of those same details, but most importantly the coaching staff who is most likely reminding them on a regular basis this week (verbally and on paper) or else they wouldn't have their jobs..., additionally, as opposed to other offenses, the triple option is mechanical, so every rep they take makes them more efficient, thus, it's up to the defense to completely adjust their gameplan in this case, to GT's style of play, whereas GT is just getting more effective, which explains why they keep winning and getting better and beating teams like va tech... on a side note, anyone remember tommy frazier from nebraska, not to compare this team to that neb team and the black shirts, but thought i believe there is only one tommy frazier, nesbitt is playing like a man

so keeping that in mind, the cavs this year are off their game, there is no real and has never really been a home field advantage at scot field, GT's offense is playing like a group of men, the defense will eventually match the level of the offense, as a whole tech realizes how much it has to play for, so without assuming tech will randomly lay an egg, i think GT will overcome any doubt over their current line and beat down the cavs, just another personal opinion


also, should i not be biting on miami at home?

[Carson05]

already took GT -4 for 2 units.

looks like it will be rainy in charlottesville. i dont see Virginia being able to stop the run very well in rainy conditions, and i think winning the time of possession will help out Ga Tech's defense who is 11th in total defense in the ACC, vs the 11th total offense, Virginia.

i think paul johnson's intensity and focus will help alleviate the potential "trap game" and mental edge Virginia may have.

[jds07v]

GT has a very good chance if they can get a lead. We all saw how they can play ball control when they played vt and fsu. They can shorten the game and i like a very efficient option offense in this one

[rk9]

I am playing Ga Tech. I am not worried at all about their offense. They should put up plenty of points. GaTech's defense played much better last week. If they play at that level they cover easily. If not it could turn into a back and forth shootout like the FSU game.

[BravoWhiskey]

I have a strict policy of not betting on or against my school (Georgia Tech) but I will offer my thoughts on the game. Virginia has played (in order) the #22, #35, #117, #66 and #88 total offenses in the land. It should not surprise that their 3 game winning streak coincides with playing poor offensive football teams in successive weeks. UVA is ranked #107 currently in total offense, and is facing the top offensive unit in the ACC. UVA was a huge benefactor of Mayland's carelessness with the football, and won a game on Saturday that they had no business winning. Also in that game, they lost their best front 7 defender (DE Conrath) as well as their starting QB (Sewell) Everything I am hearing points to Conrath being out for this game, but that Sewell will likely play. Paul Johnson's offenses typically pick up steam in the 2nd half of the season, and this year is no exception. I also think UVA changing their offensive philosophy helps GT in this spot. They have gone away from the pro style attack favored by Groh in previous seasons in favor of the spread offense. They are ill equipped to run this offense from a personnel standpoint and have struggled to score points. They also lost #1DC Eugene Monroe at OT, and their all everything tailback (Cedric Peerman) from last year's squad. On paper this should be an easy DD win for the Jackets, but I've seen some strange things happen in that stadium over the years. If anybody has any specific GT questions, I'll do my best to answer them.

[stats13]

If anybody has any specific GT questions, I'll do my best to answer them.

why did reggie ball suk so much

[Nolimit1163]

This really does feel to good to be true. Kinda like Boise St. Couple weeks ago..Hmm Be aware and good luck.Cheers

[jellobiafra]

3. "but the Yellow Jackets haven't won there since 1980." We haven't won up there since 1990.

Why did you have to remind me of that game? I was there and it still hurts to remember. Great game though. One of the best games I've ever witnessed in person, considering the ramifications.

What was your kicker's name? Sisson? Guy hit a 50 yarder with like 30 seconds left to win 34-31 I think. Back and forth all game. I miss those days. Shawn and Herman Moore. Terry Kirby and Chris Slade. UVa was #1 going into that game and I think GT was #6 or 7.

Anyway, Tech won and went on to beat Nebraska in the.... Citrus Bowl? Finished as co-National Champions with Colorado. Meanwhile Shawn Moore broke his wrist the next week against Maryland and UVA finished 8-4 I believe, losing to Tennessee in the Sugar Bowl.

Memories....

[BravoWhiskey]

why did reggie ball suk so much

Reggie was a gamer, but he had obvious physical limitations. In fairness to Reggie, he was not privy to the best coaching available (Chan Gailey and Patrick Nix) but I've been told that Reggie did not take to coaching and did not put forth the effort needed to get better. He was lax when it came to studying his playbook and watching film. Consequently, he actually regressed over his 4 year stay. He was better as a freshman than he was as a senior. It would be interesting to see him in the offense we run now, he would have been ideal for it.