after a 6-4 record last week, i hope to continue to improve. here they are:
Duke -7
coming off of an impressive win on the road against acc foe, NC St, Duke gets to play at home against a Maryland team who just lost to UVA at home. David Cutliffe has this Blue Devil team playing much stronger than in previous years, and i believe they've hit their stride with their air attack. Maryland gave up 350 yards through the air at Wake 2 weeks ago and i'd expect Duke to be able to do the same. also, Duke has been able to take the ball away most of the year (with the exception of the KU game) and Maryland has been unable to take care of the ball all year. TO's kill.
Idaho +12.5
on the road getting points vs. a UNR who narrowly escaped an upset last week on the road at Utah St. the key to that game was the passing from Utah St. which is the one thing UNR hasn't been able to defend all year. Idaho is a team who can exploit that in addition to gaining some yards on the ground. Idaho has a fairly balanced offense and that should open up the play action. Idaho's offense is just too well-rounded and once again, UNR's weakness on defense will be exploited.
Navy -2
last week Wake proved they aren't able to stop the run @ Clemson. after a horrible road performance, they have to go on the road again to face the triple option @ Navy. This is Niumatalolo's 2nd year, last year he upset Wake Forest @ Winston-Salem. This year, Navy is at home and is catching WF after being blown out on the road.
Colorado +3
After upsetting Kansas at home last week, Colorado goes on the road to play Bill Snyder and KSU. In Snyder’s 19 years at KSU, Colorado (along with Nebraska) has posted the best record in the big 12 against KSU going 11-5-1 against Snyder. KSU’s starting RB Daniel Thomas, is questionable for week 8 which is going to hurt the Wildcat offense that so heavily relies on their ground game. KSU has no pass defense which Colorado should be able to take advantage of considering they have proved they are capable of putting up yards through the air, putting up almost 300 yards against WVU and averaging almost 220 ypg.
Virginia +4
At home and getting points, I like UVA because as one person once said, “October is the one time of year that Al Groh earns his job.” He’s proven this to be true this year posting a 3-0 record since the beginning of October. I expect them to continue rolling and you have to like them as a home dog in a conference game. UVA seems to have the “Perfect-Option” figured out seeing how they only allowed 156 rushing yards last year on the road at GT; The two years before that, 121 and 105 respectively.
Utah St +1.5
Last week, Utah St. (at home) almost upset UNR, exploiting UNR’s horrific passing defense. The one time this year that La Tech played a pass first team, Hawaii burned them for 308 yards. HAWAII (not June Jones’ Hawaii either). La. Tech usually has USU’s number but this is Gary Anderson’s first year at USU and I don’t think La. Tech’s success will continue.
USF +6
Pittsburgh got lucky last week against a bad Rutgers team and don’t expect that luck to continue against USF. USF played a top team in the country and played them tough (until the end). Matt Groeth is out again but I was fairly impressed with BJ Daniels last week. He showed good composure under the pressure on national tv against a Big East foe. USF has played well on the road racking up victories against Syracuse, NC St. and FSU. They have too much speed on defense for the Panthers and they should be able to hold Dion Lewis in check. I think Pittsburgh luck runs out this week and USF comes away with the victory.
Air Force +10
Getting 10 points and they’re a better team than Utah. As everybody continues to say, “this isn’t the Utes from last year,” and they’ve loaded up against poor opponents. Beating teams like UNLV, Colorado St, Louisville, and SJSU. Air Force played a great game against TCU and put up 229 yards on the ground against them. Both teams have run heavy offenses and it should be a low scoring game because of it. That’s why the 10 points is so crucial. If the spread drops then it might be a bit tougher to call, but at 10 points, I’m confident they’d cover. Air Force’s last 3 games have been decided by 10 points or less.
West Virginia -6.5
WVU is 5-0 both SU and ATS against UConn over the last 5 years. Easily the toughest opponent UConn has faced all season, WVU is at home and only favorite by 6.5. WVU is completely healthy and Noel Devine and Jarrett Brown should have a field day against a UConn team that gave up 162 rushing yards to Louisville and 221 rushing yards to Pitt.
Indiana +5
Indiana is on the road vs. NW and they are getting 5 points. in the two years that these coaches have faced each other, the underdog is the team that covered. in addition to that, Indiana's strength is in their passing game, something NW has struggled against all season. Michigan St put up 281 yards against them, Purdue put up 313 and Syracuse put up 346. They struggle at home against Miami (OH) but a few takeaways is what secured their victory. The last 3 times that NW was a favorite, they failed to cover. I like Indiana.
Last edited by ackem19; 10-19-09 at 02:21 AM.
Reason: changed my picks.
scratch WV and add: SMU +17
Last year when these two teams met, it was June Jones’ first year at SMU and they still managed to come within 6 points of a victory. The last time a game between SMU and Houston was decided by 17 points or more… 1995. This year, SMU is finally clicking with Jones’ style of play. Houston doesn’t have much of a pass defense allowing 225 yards per game. Expect SMU to take full advantage of that. This one should be a shootout and the over (whatever it is) should be a good bet as well. SMU has a chance of winning this, but more than likely, they’ll just cover.
What do you think about the Miami Clemson game? I liked Miami at -7, now there at -5 with some serious RLM going on! Clemson D is good but Miami looks great this year especially at home... Thanks in advance for the thoughts!
just a personal policy of mine, I won't bet on The U. I don't want to taint their games with betting haha. As far as an analysis. I think Clemson is streaky but they haven't done well on the road with recent loses to MD and GT (both ACC opponents as well). Miami has done great at home with their success coming from being able to run such a balanced offense. Clemson's defense has been good and i think Miami will be a great test for them. If that line keeps moving down, i would say take Miami. Last week a couple of players were banged up on Defense but they should be back this week including All-American SS Randy Phillips, who should play a big role in slowing down CJ Spiller.
I'm a big June Jones guy. The run-n-shoot offense is impossible to defend if you have players of equal skill. While SMU doesn't quite yet have the right personnel for the offense, they are getting there and I expect them to win a conference title within the next 2-3 years. GL.
Duke -7 Idaho +12.5 Navy -2
Colorado +3 Virginia +4 Utah St +1.5 USF +6 Air Force +10
West Virginia -6.5Indiana +5
Love the Bolds, pass on the others.
Dude, Colorado going for two in a row, and now on the road. Hell Naw.
Air Force Defense is stout, and Utah is not as strong this year.
Virginia is a FADE The PUBLIC pick that I really like. They held them last year, which means coaching staff has a great handle on how to defend option. As some younger coaches have no idea what responsibilities to teach.
Just got back from the sportsbook, here are the official plays: Duke -5
Indiana +6
Utah State -1
Air Force +9
Colorado +4
Virginia +6
USF +7
Boston College +8
Idaho +15
SMU +17
i wasn't aware that they took Navy off the board at the book, so i went with BC.
ackem I agree with some of your picks. I really agree with your Duke pick. I think it has been a very long time that I have seen Duke favored on anyone. Navy was on the board with Bet Jam and it is Navy +2. Good Luck on your picks and there is quite a few that I like here. I like Colorado and Boston College the most. So good luck. I hope our Duke comes through for us. That is my best bet from what I see here.
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ackem's 10 plays for week 8 (with writeups)
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