PAC-12 Returning starters, further left is national rank. note K/P = 1 means both k and p are back. a top analyst says returning kickers are key (punter makes tons of sense to me)..... stats from philsteele.com
no real imbalances between O and D returning starters.
O/D
O
QB
OL
D
K/P
8
Arizona
17
7
0
3
10
0
8
Colorado
17
10
1
5
7
1
8
Washington
17
10
1
4
7
1
24
Oregon
15
8
1
4
7
0
24
Oregon St
15
8
1
4
7
0
24
Stanford
15
8
1
4
7
0
24
USC
15
8
0
4
7
0
24
Washington St
15
7
0
4
8
1
41
Arizona St
14
6
1
3
8
0
58
UCLA
13
7
1
4
6
0
58
Utah
13
6
1
2
7
0
117
California
9
4
0
2
5
1
Last edited by gojetsgomoxies; 07-20-13 at 02:00 PM.
2012 pac 12 strength of offensive running and passing attacks..... not totally sure about rankings like this. i use footballoutsiders.com that corrects for the opposition. i will try to confirm with another site that is just raw numbers. given that most games are against pac 12 adjustment for opponents shouldn't have been a massive adjust......
and of course, a team that barely runs but has a 7 ypc is hard to classify, that certainly isn't one of the top running attacks in america... but anyway, basically ncaa rankings followed by p12 rankings. OFFENSE. defense to come.
2012 ncaa and pac 12 yards per point for offense.......... be careful. alot like this stat. i think it's more nfl stat where most games are competitive. if oregon is leading colorado 42 in the 2nd quarter, colorado can often get tons of yards later in the game but very few points (oregon gets more serious in its own end, colorado goes for TD's not FG's etc.... etc...)
so not the greatest stat for NCAA but enjoy anyway...
2012 offense yards per point... warning: i'm confused on the national rankings and where that came from. not sure it's right. it looks right.
same caveats as offense, except that the national rankings are correct for sure this time. up to viewer to as to whether you want to rank high to low or vice versa...
phil steele loves this one. not sure it shows anything too insightful (edit: i should note, in the case of these teams this season. i do think it's a good thing to watch closely) ............... yes, colorado will be much improved this year. how could they not be..
i think a detailed breakdown, which i'll do in next few days would be helpful...
he seems pessimistic vs. market on ucla, arizona and stanford.. optimistic on USC and ASU...... i will note that stanford and usc play ND which is a tough non-conf game (stanford plays sjsu too, who has improved like crazy).... anyway, his projections don't adjust for strength of schedule.
UCLA has a sophomore at QB. 3 sophs on OL, 2 of 3 wr's = sophs..... 2 LB = sophomore. 3 of 4 in secondary are sophomore or freshman (freshman starts on corner)........ not sure alot of people have picked up on this. obv. hundley is a great QB. not sure about rest.
very bullish on ASU. they rate taylor kelly as best passing QB in pac12.
fyi, they have stanford over oregon.............. looks like that's "the game" in the pac 12 this year.
not related to sporting news but i see people starting to perceive stanford as a "winning program". i don't understand that. weren't good before willingham. weren't good after willingham until harbaugh arrived (walt harris?). they seem to get top recruits but i'd question the depth of their classes. sporting news has them rated 10th of 12th for most recent year recruiting. obv they have some elite classes before that. but classic small elite school and football needs alot of players. it's working for now.
fyi, sporting news has ucla as #1 recruiting class this year. pretty impressive.
sporting news is relatively bearish on usc. QB question (i think barkley was outstanding) and chemistry issues. alot of returning starters though.
just something i whipped up comparing the team's rush and passing offense from last year. my analysis basically adjusted for the fact that yards per pass attempt are generally much higher than yards per carry. higher variability of course and you have to mix it up.
positive means rushing attack was better. negative means passing attack. and of course a terrible offense or great offense can have one much better. doesn't mean much. for instance, i think WSU had a 1.4 yard rushing average. absolutely dreadful. probably could capture the same with rush and passing ranking in ncaa.
simpler way to show passing and rushing offenses in 2012. NOT adjusted for opponents. shouldn't matter that much for pac 10 ratings. but ranked vs. 124 teams, pac 12 teams have much harder schedules.
NCAA
NCAA
pac12
pac12
Orush
Opass
Orush
Opass
ARIZONA
8
64
2
6
ARIZONA ST
50
18
6
1
CALIFORNIA
29
79
4
8
COLORADO
113
118
11
12
OREGON
1
44
1
5
OREGON ST
92
26
9
3
STANFORD
55
75
7
7
UCLA
50
37
6
4
USC
24
23
3
2
UTAH
101
94
10
9
WASHINGTON
80
101
8
11
WASHINGTON ST
124
101
12
11
arizona = great running game, but their QB who fit RichRod's system perfectly is gone. on flip side, RichRod has had a year to formulate things now.
wow, washington state had a bad running game. hard to believe they can't average more than 1.4 YPC when the defense is more expecting pass.
regarding asu's stout pass defense and ats implications:
ASU had 7 comfortable ATS covers. 3 of those teams averaged less than 7 yards per attempt (full season). 2 more teams averaged less than 6.... arizona had a good passing attack 7.2 ypa and lots of yards... navy had a high ypa but mostly runs the balll.......... so 6 of 7 covers against poor pass offenses.
asu had 4 comfortable ATS losses. all teams were high 7's ypa or higher.
so asu covered 6-0 vs. poor passing teams. went 1-4 ats vs. good passing teams.
i guess you could also say asu was 5-1 ATS (not sure about navy so didn't count it) against poor teams. 1-4 ATS against good teams.
anyway, i think this is some of the beauty of focussing your analysis on one conference. see seidel's book about handicapping one conference for NCAAB betting.
fyi, colorado and utah have been in the pac 12 for 2 years now.
colorado is 28% ATS, average ats win/loss = -5.2..... conference they've been just normal bad, but non-conference 17% with average -13.7 point misses (1-5 small sample size, but maybe lesser conference teams getting excited to destroy a pac 12 team)
utah is 44% ATS, relatively benign -0.5 miss.
utah is 39% ATS -3.5 conference. 57% +7 non-conference.
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