[awhitejackson]

First of all lets look at the competition... South Florida's signiture win so far this season was against a Florida State team that has lost 3 in a row and is in dire straits of missing its first bowl game since before most of us were born. Otherwise S.Fla has beaten::::
Wofford, Charleston Southern, Western Kentucky, and Syracuse....In the Syracuse game they were outgained in total offense (yes to Syracuse), and were in a dogfight until costly mistakes/turnovers cost the Orange any chance of a home win..

On the other hand, Cincinatti absolutely demolished a questionable Rutgers team (questionable because they have played shit teams for 4 straight wins) on the road in week 1 ougaining the Scarlet Knights 279 total yards and covering the 4.5 spread by nearly 4 TD's ...Then comes an impressive on the road victory at Oregon State, and a home win against an exciting if somewhat unlucky Fresno State team (dont let Fresno's 2-3 record fool you. their losses came at the hands of Cincy, Wisconsin, Boise and they were very competitive in all 3 games)...The one major questionmark to Cincy's play so far was last weeks game to a lowly Miami Ohio where the Bearcats came out slow and failed to really lay a beatdown on a far inferior team)... Two Words; Rivalry Game..One of the oldest in the nation in fact and a HUGE deal for both schools... ( I never bet on major rivalries and I find it a waste of time to even try and cap them)

Personnaly, I'm glad to see any team in the Big East 5-0 and ranked (as long as they haven't played WVU yet). It gives the conference some credibility in a way... But In my opinion CINCY's 5-0 IS OBVIOUSLY a much stronger 5-0 right now than S.Fla.

So why is this spread much closer than I thought it would be coming out??? Well not only is it that both teams are undefeated and ranked , but its the fact that South Florida has gained the reputation as a giant killer of sorts beating its last 5 top 25 teams...

WHAT EVERYBODY SEEMS TO FORGET is that Matt Groethe was the QB in all of these and the architect of these victories (along with coach Leavitt of course)...He was and is known for his ability to perform efficiently under pressure.. His poise in the pocket and ability to sustain long vital drives in BIG GAMES are one of the reasons a South Fla program only 13 years old is even on the map in the first place...YOU SIMPLY CAN'T just replace this type of leader and expect the same results...

Now this new kid Daniels is good and very gifted atheletically, but are we to assume he is going to automatically perform in the same manner (as a veteran Groethe) while under the lights with a sellout crowd and on national TV??? How many freshman are really going to be able to perform under that type of pressure??? Maybe he proves me wrong but I dont see it happening against a surprisingly stout and gifted Cincinatti Defense (considering how many starters they lost last year)...

At the same time Tony Pike reminds me of Groethe in many ways, but most particularly in his poise under center...This guy does not give the ball up and does not make stupid decisions. Dude is also blessed with a powerful offensive unit that, when on, can score at will....

ANYWAYS I could go on and on about how much I love this line.... I easily see Cincy winning by 10+ and can honestly say that behind last weeks Michigan +8, this is my favorite line of the year....

You Guys CHOOSE FOR YOURSELVES!!! I rarely do writeups anymore cause of all the bitching that happens when a team I like loses and people blame my pick, but I wanted to give my opinion on this one as a longtime and passionate Big East follower.....

GL to all this week

[clowncar]

Your very first paragraph is the one that most should take note of. You have a good pick here on paper prior to the game , regardless of the result.

best of luck.

[awhitejackson]

Your very first paragraph is the one that most should take note of.
.

Totally agreed thats why I started out with it (or at least I say that now)..haha...GL

[Dbldown11]

All in all some reasonable thoughts, although in the other thread on this game you'll see that I've basically looked at the same info and have come to a completely different conclusion. A couple things though...

1) Rutgers is not questionable they are flat out bad.....and if any line is your favorite of the year it should be tomorrows because Pitt should be double digit favorites against that piss poor rutgers team (in no way does this line give THAT much value in either direction...)

2) If you want to be consider a legit top 15 contender....Rivalry or not you need to embarass one of the 5 worst teams in college football and Cincy didnt do that. In fact they had one of the worst performances against Miami Ohio out of anybody this year. 2 teams scored less than Cicny against Miami Ohio (Northwestern and Kent St.) and only two teams allowed more points than Cincy (Western Mich. and Kent St.) I dont care how big the rivalry, if you are deserving of being a Road favorite on a nationally televised weeknight game against a conference foe that is also undefeated....then you better beat the shit out of one of the worst if not the worst teams in the nation.

just my two cents.

[mcbaseball10]

Great post with information that people should use in their decision process. It would be interesting to see if this line would be changed to -5 to -7 if it were played on a Saturday afternoon rather than a Thursday night. Maybe I'm off base on that, but I believe Cincinnati is the superior team that has been more battle tested this year.

-Impressive wins on the road in Oregon State and Rutgers prove that they know how to travel.

-The heat and humidity (Max. Humidity: 86% tonight) of South Florida might be a factor in this game as I believe it played some role in the Jets vs. Dolphins game on Monday night.

-Don't read into the thunderstorm prediction too much as South Florida shows 30%-40% chance of showers/storms almost everyday until later in the fall

[Dbldown11]

.....I'm way off compared to everyone else it looks like. I think the Fresno victory was their most impressive win, but that win or the oregon st win is not more impressive than beating Florida St. on the road. Fl. St. may be down this year but they are still better that Oregon St. or Fresno St.

And in my eyes you can give no credit to the Rutgers win as Rutgers is absolutely terrible....just look at their schedule since being trounced by cincy.

And I believe that you are way off base in thinking that the line would be Cincy -5 to -7 if it were on a Saturday. Cincy ranked as number 8 in the nation is a joke. They should be in the 20's with S. Florida.

Here's is a list of the other highly overrated teams from the past week that lost ATS:

LSU
Auburn
Mizzou

I expect the same to occur tonight with S. Florida handing it to Cincinatti

[awhitejackson]

All in all some reasonable thoughts, although in the other thread on this game you'll see that I've basically looked at the same info and have come to a completely different conclusion. A couple things though...

1) Rutgers is not questionable they are flat out bad.....and if any line is your favorite of the year it should be tomorrows because Pitt should be double digit favorites against that piss poor rutgers team (in no way does this line give THAT much value in either direction...)

2) If you want to be consider a legit top 15 contender....Rivalry or not you need to embarass one of the 5 worst teams in college football and Cincy didnt do that. In fact they had one of the worst performances against Miami Ohio out of anybody this year. 2 teams scored less than Cicny against Miami Ohio (Northwestern and Kent St.) and only two teams allowed more points than Cincy (Western Mich. and Kent St.) I dont care how big the rivalry, if you are deserving of being a Road favorite on a nationally televised weeknight game against a conference foe that is also undefeated....then you better beat the shit out of one of the worst if not the worst teams in the nation.

just my two cents.

Fair enough I totally respect your opinion and know you are a solid capper as well as a solid poster on the forum...

At the same time I'm thinking of taking Rutgers tommorow in all honesty...Wandstat still has a job for only 2 reasons...1.He is arguably the best reruiter in the Big East... 2. He beat my beloved #2 ranked Mountaineers 2 seasons ago in a major major upset (last game of the season lukily for him as he likely would have been on the hot seat after if not fired).. Otherwise I am often horrified by his play calling and his (or his staffs) inability to inspire any type of solid play from his QBs...The running game (complimented by his great recruits) has had to bail this team out time and time again in the last minutes...Both the loss to N.c. state and last weeks vitory over Uconn were hard to watch as a superior team was hurt badly by piss poor play calls... Shiano might have the chips staked against him tommorow (as far as overall talent between the two teams), but I think he's the better poker player and will outcoach Wanny in a close game... More than likely I will pass though...

Secondly, I totally believe in the rivalry factor and often over emphasize its importance...But my nature still has me writing off that Miami Oh. game as a typical rivalry fluke and I dont see the results as a major issue when capping this game....

GL to you this weekend!!

[Dbldown11]

Thanks same to you

[SmackdownV]

I'm with you Double Down

South Florida -3 is the #1 RED FLAG in this game. That's my #1 rule..........Always take the road dog when the home team is faves by +3

Cincy ML for me for 5 Units tonight!

GL!

[mcbaseball10]

I might be off with the line change on a different day, just a thought. I really can't S. Florida handing it to them as Cincinnati's offense is way too explosive to allow that to happen.

I am not too impressed with Rutgers either, I am more impressed with the way that Cincinnati dismantled them.

Haven't decided if I will bet this game or not, if I would it would be on Cincy giving up less than 3.

Great to have more insight from you, Dbl and awhite. BOL

[bigcat1]

i agree with doubledown11, i like cinci but i think south florida is the play.

I WATCHED THE GAME AT RUTGERS, RUTGERS BAD
MIAMI OF OHIO, ONLY WON BY 25, FOR THE LOVE MY KENTUCKY CATS BEAT THEM 42-00
DIDN'T WATCH OREGON ST GAME..
i know cinci is overrated, just hope south florida is the one that shows it,

[Dbldown11]

I'm with you Double Down

South Florida -3 is the #1 RED FLAG in this game. That's my #1 rule..........Always take the road dog when the home team is faves by +3

Cincy ML for me for 5 Units tonight!

GL!

Nothing in that post makes sense.....I'm so confused

[L2Gunz]

[coolbreeze02]

i agree with the home dog +3 usually but i just dont see them hanging with cincy. plus my buddy from highschool plays wr for cincy (dj woods) so thats my decision maker lol

[mmike032]

I'm with you Double Down

South Florida -3 is the #1 RED FLAG in this game. That's my #1 rule..........Always take the road dog when the home team is faves by +3

Cincy ML for me for 5 Units tonight!

GL!

WTF dude, ya might wanna take a closer look into this game

[infamousbacardi]

Haha...Cincy is -3 my friend...and, sell out crowd at Raymond James makes this a tough call...I think the teaser of Cincy +3.5 and OVER 42.5 is solid.

[wal66]

I have no position on the game yet nor do I know if I will even make a play. I don't see enough edge either way. However When looking at who these teams have played and it is pointed out CIncy has played tougher opponents which I tend to agree with. That said though, we need not overlook South Florida's Total Domination Defensively of Florida State. Before you laugh hear me out. While FSU is obviously down this year they are still puting points on the scoreboard. Offense has not been their problem with the exception of the running game being off compared to previous teams. USF physically handled FSU. This team has tremendous athletes on defense and they lay the lumber. I said in another post that the key to this game will be how USF's defensive line matches up with Cincy's offensive line. If Cincy can manage up front and give Pike time to throw then Cincy will win a close one. If however USF is allowed to pin it's ears back and go after Pike this thing will get ugly and go the Bulls way. They have not had success against Cincy recently infact they are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against Concy. Also we all know that USF while impressive early has laid some serious eggs once the nation takes notice. Don't think it'll happen but as I said I haven't done anything official yet. I will say I like the under. USF's defense is an easy pick but Cincy can play defense as well. The under looks tempting.

[crackerjack]

Okay, I've had an amazing run this year betting totals and I am about to jinx that by posting here. But this game goes UNDER the total. Now, granted, I've bet the under in both Tuesday's and Wednesday's games and won so maybe an over is "due" to hit. Rather, I think the trend continues. Take it FWIW...

[bigcat1]

oh yeah one more thing i might be wrong but i think south florida beat florida st, after florida st beat byu....really can't use the three loss thing

[awhitejackson]

Looking forward to an exciting game.... Was eduated by my twin brother about the S.Fla, D a few minutes ago, which is agreeably mad tough. This made me take another look at this game yet again.... Still though NO change in my bet.... I'm still going all out on cincy... Im betting on the offense of the bearats to trump the offense of the bulls... Defenses are IMO even so they be damned.....GL to all.......

cin -2 for the house......

[awhitejackson]

No Bragging... No shit talking.... I'm Just glad I got this one, so anyone that followed enjoy yourself and watch these three little guys dance.... .......GL this week yall

[teaserpleaser]

good win