[SamDiamond]

And it only relates to the first 2-3 weeks of the season, I am compiling 7 year data on it now, but thought I would share.

The angle? Returning OL starts.

Teams with more than 100 career starts returning won at a 84.3% ATS clip in the first 2 weeks of the season the last 3 years. I am trying to get it out to 7 years to see if there is anything more.

Again, outside of week 2-- the data is meaningless, and doesn't help much. But, early on, it seems to play a role. I will post when I get more data points.

This year there are 8 teams returning more than 100 starts.

1. Texas 124
2. Tennessee 123
3. Duke 113
4. Utah State 110
5. New Mexico 107
6. Georgia Tech 105
7. Georgia 101
8. Minnesota 100

[WorkHorse]

Good list. The first thing I do each season is make a list of number of offensive line starters returning along with a starting quarterback.

On your list, Texas and Minnesota also return the QB starter. Georgia didn't qualify for number of starts but the Dogs return 5 O-line starters along with the quarterback. Others with O-line and QB starters returning are Miami, Hawaii, Colorado.

Appreciate the info....the junior high school kids are beginning to hit the CFB forum with silly dribble.

[BigdaddyQH]

A good list, but a lot depends on who these teams play. There is no way that I am giving Clemson at home and 3.5 points against UGA. Also you have four of these teams playing FCS teams and two playing each other. This should be a very interesting year to test the theory, especially with New Mexico, Tennessee, and Utah State in the mix.

[Gameday]

Thanks for the info Sam,

I'm real interested to see what the 7 year results of this trend looks like. Keep us informed! If they resemble the look of your two year research then I think your definitely on to something. I personally like Georgia being added to that list, like I've said before I think that season opener will be real entertaining but I really think Georgia will pull away towards the end. Prediction: 42-31 Bulldogs

[WorkHorse]

Gameday, you may be spot on with the Georgia/Clemson game. Clemson has all new starters in the secondary and I'm sure Murray and gang are licking their chops. Clemson was bad last year against the pass and will be tested early and offen in this first game.

Both teams can score so which ever 'D' steps up will probably win this one. It's at Clemson but you gotta know 40,000 Bulldog fans will be there. The schools are only about 70 miles apart and Dog fans will travel. I'm hearing they are buying every ticket they can get their hands on.

[BigdaddyQH]

Gameday, you may be spot on with the Georgia/Clemson game. Clemson has all new starters in the secondary and I'm sure Murray and gang are licking their chops. Clemson was bad last year against the pass and will be tested early and offen in this first game.

Both teams can score so which ever 'D' steps up will probably win this one. It's at Clemson but you gotta know 40,000 Bulldog fans will be there. The schools are only about 70 miles apart and Dog fans will travel. I'm hearing they are buying every ticket they can get their hands on.

I hope that UGA pulls it out, but they are just so bad on defense this season and in the first few weeks of the season, I doubt it. Youhave to take the points and Clemson

[SamDiamond]

Okay, 7 year data.

Again, only going out 2 weeks.

Because I think experience and adjustments dilute this angle the farther out we go.

I have also filtered out FCS opponents (Formerly 1-AA).

So-- here are the numbers.

Teams returning more than 100 starts along the OL, and playing other FBS teams--

7 years--- 77.2% win rate.

Further variable inclusions....

Teams returning more than 100 starts and a QB with more than 10 starts.....

7 years---- 81.8% win rate.

Bottom line.

If you are looking for a starting point-- Look for teams with an experienced OL, and a returning QB. You will have a very good chance at cashing the first 2 weeks of the year in college football.

[WorkHorse]

You da man Sam.

Excellent research partner...damn strong!

[Fredvic247]

I hope that UGA pulls it out, but they are just so bad on defense this season and in the first few weeks of the season, I doubt it. Youhave to take the points and Clemson

I think you have to take Clemson and the points too, but I do think Georgia's defense will be better statistically than the 2012 version, I just think it will take some time replacing all those starters that moved on to the NFL.

[WorkHorse]

At first glance...I liked Clemson mainly because of playing at home.

Even with South Carolina on deck (scares the hell out of me) the Dawgs will win this one.

Georgia is just better than Clemson...player for player, better team.

My take until convinced otherwise..................

[M.W.]

I checked the last two years, and I get a record of 14-13 ATS vs. FBS teams (not counting one game where two qualifying teams played each other) and 1-4 ATS vs. FCS teams in the first two games of the season.

Teams with more than 100 career starts returning won at a 84.3% ATS clip in the first 2 weeks of the season the last 3 years.

Seeing as how they went 14-13 the last two seasons, that seems awfully unlikely. They would have had to go something like 56-0 ATS three years ago.

[SamDiamond]

I checked the last two years, and I get a record of 12-13 ATS vs. FBS teams (not counting one game where two qualifying teams played each other) and 1-4 ATS vs. FCS teams in the first two games of the season. Seeing as how they went 12-13 the last two seasons, that seems awfully unlikely. They would have had to go something like 58-0 ATS three years ago.

I stand my my date M.W.

In fact, I only have 18 games for teams with more than 100 starts the last 2 years.

I will create a spreadsheet and list all the games and outcomes in this thread on Saturday.

[PAULYPOKER]

Bout time you post something to earn your keep.........

[SamDiamond]

Okay, I only have the 2012 Season in front of me, as it was in the notebook I used to make my calculations.....

So here goes....

I have 5 teams that qualified for this last year...

NC State, Oklahoma, WVU, LSU, and Ball State.

NC State 1-1
Oklahoma 1-1
WVU 2-0
LSU 1-1
Ball State 2-0

That's 7-3, or 70%.

Again, I will take a much closer look at the data I have but I am pretty certain these numbers are right.

[M.W.]

see below

[M.W.]

In 2012 -- Ball St 2-0 / NC State 0-1 / Tenn 0-1 / FIU 0-2 / WVU 1-0 / LSU 1-1 / Kent 0-1 -- Tenn v. NC State is excluded from each team's record. That's 4-5 against FBS. Against FCS, WVU was 0-1, Tenn 0-1, and Kent 1-0, for 1-2 overall.

[M.W.]

Oklahoma only had 43 returning OL starts last year, so OU doesn't qualify. WVU didn't cover its second game, against JMU, so WVU was not 2-0 ATS. NC State was 0-2, not 1-1, but one of the ATS losses was against another qualifying team, so it should be counted as 0-1. You left out Tennessee and Kent, which combined to go 1-2 (excluding Tennessee's game against NC State). So, to summarize, you counted two losers as winners, you included one team that didn't belong (though, at 1-1 ATS, Oklahoma didn't make much difference in the numbers), and you excluded two teams that qualified and combined to go 0-1 ATS vs. FBS and 1-1 ATS vs. FCS. If you correct these errors, you find that these teams were 4-5 ATS in the first 2 games last year (or 5-7 ATS if you count games against FBS teams).

[SamDiamond]

Okay, I didn't have FIU because they had 2 returning OL starters out.

I had Oklahoma at 102 career starts.

I had Kent with 79 returning career starts.

And Tennessee with 83 career returning starts.

Can I ask where you are getting your numbers? I am all for sharing information, so do share.

[M.W.]

Those numbers are from my preseason chart from last year. The numbers came from Phil Steele initially, and then I reduced for players lost to attrition (if I knew about it). You may be right about FIU if there were injuries I didn't account for.

[SamDiamond]

M.W.

Here are 2 resources I use...

http://collegeinjuryreport.com/

and..

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/play-index/

I use college injury report because they list every reason for a player not playing--- injury/suspension/dismissal. It is a great resource.

I compute my OL starts info from both the school's websites and the s-reference I listed above.

[PAULYPOKER]

[Mac4Lyfe]

This is a good angle Sam. I tend to weight O-line experience and QB play very high to start the season. I also look at defensive line and CB play as well. To finish it off, I also look at coaches records to start the season. Some are notable for starting quick while others slow.

Good stuff...

[WorkHorse]

Right on Mac....offensive line veterans plus a starting quarterback is worthy of attention and research.

It pays my friend...more often than not.

Bumb....worthy of another look by the forum.

[Gameday]

Wow, great research Sam!

I like the percentages there A LOT, definitely wouldn't be a bad thing to start the year with almost an 80% win record! Your the man

[SamDiamond]

Let's give a shout out to M.W.

I am actually working through the NCAA's experience chart--which charts playing time for each school, and getting much more accurate data on this angle.

I am off the Spring Lake, NJ for a week's vacation starting Friday-- will post what I have when I get through it by Monday.

[tinhphai]

Bump

[bama11braves]

I hope that UGA pulls it out, but they are just so bad on defense this season and in the first few weeks of the season, I doubt it. Youhave to take the points and Clemson


Bigdaddy how the hell do you know if georgia is bad on defense this season? You see them play yet?!?! Richt has been saying all off season how this defense was gonna be better then last year

[sparticus]

I stand my my date M.W.

In fact, I only have 18 games for teams with more than 100 starts the last 2 years.

I will create a spreadsheet and list all the games and outcomes in this thread on Saturday.

Do you have the time to post the above info, thanking you in advance,GL.

[gojetsgomoxies]

EDIT: i think these numbers are correct for phil steele (not sam's source though). but i notice phil's chart has 2011 as the title even though it was posted in june 2012.. so not sure they are correct.

i really appreciate you posting this......

i tried to replicate 2012 from phil steele (i realize this is not your source).....

here's what i came up with (tracking down the first 2 weeks was a pain as i don't have a good magazine handy). and i assume you meant first two games, not first two weeks. and i excluded the FCS stuff.

here's what i came up with:

ball 2-0
ncs 0-1-1
WV 1-0
TN 1-0
LSU 1-1
FIU 0-2
OKLA 0-1
Kent State 0-1

so that would be 5-7... teams without returning QB (LSU, FIU) were 1-3..... so 4-4 100 career OL starts, and returning QB.

BTW, i love the idea of non phil steele. phil does awesome stuff but everyone uses it. i assume marshall wouldn't be giving so many points to Miami-Ohio if it wasn't for phil's work.