[WorkHorse]

I'm ready for college football to begin and look forward to three opening season beauties. On August 31, the season kicks off with some pretty strong and interesting games.

Georgia @ Clemson
This is what we like...an opening weekend battle that has major national championship implications and two great senior quarterbacks. The Dawgs have Aaron Murray and an SEC schedule about as forgiving as possible, greasing the path to the conference title game. Clemson counters with Tajh Boyd and momentum from beating LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. Key early game for both teams to launch a national chase.

LSU vs TCU
Yet another reason why the opening weekend of college football is as important as the last, and why kickoff can't get here quickly enough. The experienced Frogs, especially gritty on defense, will test the mettle of LSU quarterback Zach Mettenberger, whose improvement is paramount in order for the Tigers and their rebuilt defense to hold their place among the national elite.

Boise State @ Washington
How often do you see it? Teams that played a tight, entertaining bowl game...the Broncos won 28-26 in Las Vegas on a late field goal and interception...start off the next year against each other. Well, never. That's why this game makes for an interesting matchup.

**Another early game August 31 is Alabama vs Virginia Tech in Atlanta. With the Tide being a three touchdown favorite...I didn't list it in the top three.

[suicidekings]

Georgia and Clemson should be the best game of the week.

Clemson didn't lose all that much to the draft this year, and did a good job of recruiting to compensate for those losses. Their biggest weakness last year was in pass defense and they pulled in nine defensive back in recruiting this year, including 5 star Mackensie Alexander. Of the other eight players, six of them stand at least 6'1", which is ultimately going to make Clemson a much tougher defensive team in 2013. Georgia lost a lot more in the draft, including several of their best defensive playmakers. They filled those empty spots with decent recruits, but they're not going to be as good this year on defense.

Clemson opened as a -2 favourite and the line has moved to -3.5. I think Clemson is the right side in this game, but the line will slide back down with SEC support taking Georgia +3.5. I'd be inclined to play Clemson at -2.5 or better. Clemson is just prime this year to be in the running for the NC, being a favourite to take the ACC, and a win against Georgia could set them up to be entering their final game against the Gamecocks with 10-11 wins and a top 8 ranking. Not to say Georgia won't be primed for this game as well, but the Bulldogs have more obstacles to face in replacing star players and the early season matchup presents a more difficult challenge for them than for the Tigers. Either way, this is probably going to be a game that features big offensive plays on both sides and a high score.

[suicidekings]

Workhorse: What's your take on Mettenberger this season? He was let down badly last year by his receivers dropping on-target passes in key situations, which really hurt his numbers. With so many strong defensive players being drafted, it makes sense that LSU won't be able to depend on defense carrying the team to quite the same degree as it has in the last couple years. By that same token, we can probably expect his receivers to perform a bit better for him this year.

The loss of Spencer Ware and Michael Ford leaves Jeremy Hill as the clear #1 in the backfield (and he's amazing) but with less reliable depth, and the loss of Brad Wing is really big. All in all, I think there's more pressure on Mettenberger to step up this year. I know he's got the frame & mechanics to be a top QB prospect, but I'm still not sold on his ability to lead a team.

LSU has an extremely tough road this year with games against Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia, Florida, TCU, and Ole Miss. Phil Steele ranks this as the #12 toughest schedule. This game against TCU is going to really show what they're bringing to the table. I think Mettenberger really needs to elevate his game quite a bit for LSU to even make it to 9 wins.

[WorkHorse]

Suicide, I have Mettenberger as the 6th or 7th best quarterback in the SEC. He has a strong arm but is slow in the pocket and zero threat as a runner. The kid just doesn't seem to play with any fire in his belly. His body language on the field is not what you want in a leader...especially your quarterback. Just my take and I played quarterback in high school and college.

I agree that LSU needs him to come up big this season. As long as Miles is in control, the Tigers are going to be primarily a pound the ball team. And with the schedule he's facing, a little help from the quarterback sure would help.

[BigdaddyQH]

The Clemson-Georgia game is going to be the best match-up of the week. The game is much mmore critical for Clemson because it is highly unlikely that a one loss ACC team will out-vote a one loss SEC team, especially if that loss is against a SEC team. We know that one loss SEC Teams always get their share of votes. A win for Georgia and a win the following week against South Carolina at home really sets them up nicely.

As far as LSU-TCU goes, TCU has lost too much on defense with the suspension of TCU DE Fields. LSU will probably start slowly, but I like them to win it in the second half. I think that a second half play on LSU may be the way to go.

Boise State at Washington also will be very entertaining. Sark has to get Washington moving. They have leveled out at the 7 win mark for 3 years now, and it is time to take the next step. If not, Sark could feel a lot of heat. He has 17 starters returning including 10 on offense. The game is in Seattle, one of 7 home games that the Huskies play. If Sark and the Huskies are ever going to make a move to challenge Stanford and Oregon, this is the year to do it.

[suicidekings]

Boise definitely improved in the second half of last season, as Southwick started to grow into the role of starting QB. They're returning 4 seniors on their OL, but their running game took a huge downturn last year with the loss of Doug Martin, due largely to poor run blocking. Despite that, Jay Ajayi managed 6.7 ypc over 82 carries, so with the expectation that the run blocking will be better this season (I think that's a reasonable assumption), Ajayi could be an absolute monster in the #1 RB role.

The Huskies have 10 returning starters on offense, but they weren't very good last year. Not sure if that's really a great thing for them... It looks like a major change for them is going to be a change in tempo as they look to add a lot more no-huddle offensive plays this season after the small-scale experimenting they did with it last season. Their spring practices focused heavily on tempo and conditioning to match up with the other high tempo teams in the PAC12. They're also moving Dwayne Washington (6'1", 220lb, 4.5s 40yd) from WR to RB to improve their depth and durability in their ground attack behind Sankey. They still only have one proven, quality receiver on the team in TE Seferian-Jenkins. Price is a question mark, but I take the shift in offensive scheme as Sarkisian being well aware that he can't rely on Price to take over a game, along with designing the scheme to fit the players he has available.

Unfortunately for the Huskies, Chris Peterson lives on high-tempo play, and I think the Broncos are coming into this year with a much more well-defined identity and more enthusiasm within the program after the expected down year in 2012. Huskies are a -3 favourite in this game, and BSU getting +3 seems like a very solid play to me.

[suicidekings]

BetOnline has posted spreads for all of the Week 1 games now. Lines originally released May 18, and are current as of May 26.

Tulsa -3 @ Bowling Green (Opened Tulsa -7)

Utah State @ Utah -4.5

Rutgers @ Fresno State -8.5

Akron @ Central Florida -28

North Carolina @ South Carolina -9.5

UNLV @ Minnesota -17

Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt -2.5 (Opened Vandy -4.5)

USC -23 @ Hawaii

FAU @ Miami -31

Western Michigan @ Michigan State -24

Texas Tech -2 @ SMU (Opened SMU -1.5)

Washington State @ Auburn -14

Louisiana Lafayette @ Arkansas -14

Northwestern -6 @ California

Nevada @ UCLA -13

Toledo @ Florida -21.5

Kentucky -3 @ Western Kentucky

FIU @ Maryland -14.5

Central Michigan @ Michigan -26

Louisiana Tech @ NC State -10.5

UTSA @ New Mexico -6

Penn State -4 @ Syracuse

Buffalo @ Ohio State -33

Mississippi State @ Oklahoma State -8 (Opened OSU -6.5)

Louisiana Monroe @ Oklahoma -23

Rice @ Texas A&M -28

Idaho @ North Texas -17

New Mexico State @ Texas -42

BYU -4 @ Virginia

Boise State @ Washington -3

UMass @ Wisconsin -45

Miami Ohio @ Marshall -10.5

Purdue @ Cincinnati -14

Northern Illinois @ Iowa -6.5

Texas State @ Southern Miss -11

UAB @ Troy -6

Temple @ Notre Dame -27

Alabama -14 @ Virginia Tech (Opened Alabama -17.5)

Wyoming @ Nebraska -21.5

Georgia @ Clemson -1

LSU -5.5 @ TCU

Ohio @ Louisville -16

Colorado -2.5 @ Colorado State (Opened Colorado -4.5)

Florida State -7 @ Pittsburgh

[suicidekings]

The Cowboys jump off the board to me a bit.

I think Mississippi State was a complete fraud last season. They only beat terrible teams, with the games played against quality competition being over quickly (0-5, outscored 188-81). On top of that, they lost 8 players to the NFL this year, including their top 3 cornerbacks. MSU returns 4-5 starters on their offensive line (depending on how you look at it), which is good for Sr. QB Tyler Russell, but he wasn't amazing last year either, with the majority of his numbers coming from those weak opponents.

Oklahoma State is bringing back 17 starters this year, including a ton of experience on the defensive side. They were ranked #12 by Football Outsiders in F/+ stats in 2012 and only suffered two losses to the NFL. Unfortunately, those losses were their #1 RB in Joseph Randle and 3 time All American kicker/punter Quinn Sharp. A big loss for special teams that can't easily be addressed. As for the RB spot, they have some decent talent to replace Randle in Smith & Roland, but they lack experience. The big plus for OSU is returning three very solid QB options in Chelf/Walsh/Lunt, who each broke 1000 yards last year. Chelf looks to be the #1 going into this season.

In a Big 12 conference that's losing Geno Smith, Landry Jones, Collin Klein, and Nick Florence, there's a bit of a power vacuum emerging, and the experienced team could have a solid edge this year. I'd play OSU -7 with a lot of confidence here.

[WorkHorse]

Series of informative posts Suicide.....good stuff!

You are right about Miss State last year and a big problem was quarterback play against good teams. Tyler Russell threw either 9 or 10 interceptions in those five losses. The kid had a good spring and I'm looking for a good final year for the senior.

Looking at the opening lines you posted...if I had to make a bet this minute without doing any homework on the games...I'd go with the following.

Bowling Green +3 (Tulsa) Love BG's defense.
North Carolina +9.5 (South Carolina) I've got NC vs Clemson in the ACC title game.
Ole Miss +3 buy (Vanderbilt) Ole Miss will probably lose 5 or 6 games this season but not this one.
Auburn -14 (Washington State) Playing in the Alabama heat...second half blow out.
Northwestern -6 (California) New coach, no quarterback against a pretty good NW team.
UCLA -13 (Nevada) I like this team and the QB to go back to the Pac title game.
Ohio State -33 (Buffalo) Meyer can name the score.
Alabama -14 (Virginia Tech) Line opened at 22 at some off shoots...14 about right for Bama.
Florida State -7 (Pittsburgh) FSU is loaded at the skill positions on offense.

Like I said...if I had to bet this minute. Let me know where we differ. Thanks Bud.

[suicidekings]

I don't disagree with any of these, except UNC.

UNC lost a lot of experience on their offensive line to the draft, which isn't a good thing when their opening game is against Jadeveon Clowney. They're good at OT, but young at the guard spots, and lack depth. The loss of linemen also hurts their run game and they have to replace Giovani Bernard on top of that.

South Carolina is looking to have a banner year in 2013. Despite losing a decent number of players to the NFL, their depth is still solid and they brought in what I think is a very underrated draft class. From what I've seen & read about their spring practices, Mike Smith has been really impressive in replacing Marcus Lattimore thusfar, and there's 2-3 more talented, young tailbacks in the mix behind him. Cody Waldrop seems to have already locked up the starting Center position as a freshman, replacing TJ Johnson. The only other major offensive loss was Ace Sanders, but Shaq Roland has stepped up in spring and seems ready to live up to the expectations that SC had for him coming out of HS. The Gamecocks are absolutely loaded with offensive weapons this season, a senior QB, and 4/5 returning OL starters.

The losses on defense hurt a bit more, but Spurrier is such a good recruiter that he's still got a huge pool of talent to draw from that's well distributed by year and across all positions. I've also noticed that when SC's defense is playing at it's best, Spurrier tends to pull back when ahead and focus on just eating clock, but he certainly doesn't have to do that. I don't think UNC's defense will have much success in stopping SC's offense.

[WorkHorse]

Suicide, I'm not sure I can put up a strong case for North Carolina but I really like Larry Fedora who will be entering his second year with the Tar Heels and he has one of the best quarterbacks in the ACC to work with. His system is now in place plus he has one of the better coaching staffs in the conference. QB Bryn Renner will test the South Carolina secondary early and often. The big question is can his line protect him from Clowney and company.

The ole ball coach has put back-to-back 11 win seasons and has a chance for a three-peat. The Gamecocks have Clowney, but they lost six of the top eight tacklers from last year. I'm thinking it will take the defense a few games to jell together.

We both know Spurrier will score as many as he can....tough call but early lean is NC plus the points for me.

[suicidekings]

The big question is can his line protect him from Clowney and company.

This is pretty much what the game boils down to. The thing about Renner is he's had the luxury of time for a substantial portion of his career. I just watched some game footage from a couple of games last year, and it seems that under pressure, his accuracy and decision-making fall off quite a bit. Not to say he can't elevate his game, but to this point, he's not a guy that makes big plays out of a collapsing pocket. I do like Larry Fedora, and UNC seems to have a very solid screen game that could counteract the SC pass rush. I wonder how aggressive Spurrier will be to start the game...

This is actually a weird matchup. The teams have played once in the last 22 years, and despite the recruiting overlap and geography, they just don't have much of a rivalry to speak of. Being opening weekend, maybe the UNC fans get up for it a little more.